Reese Kaplan -- Positional Analysis: Bullpen

It seems year after year the Mets are promising to revamp their bullpen.  Sometimes they include people who came up through the farm system doing well that unfortunately cannot translate their success in the minors to similar results in the majors.  Think Paul Sewald, for example.  

 

Other times they go out and sign rejects from other teams who come to camp on minor league deals or as non-roster invitees who somehow make the journey north from Florida to New York.  There's often a reason these folks have been rendered available and quickly the results show when major league games begin.  

 

Finally, there are times when they do ink pitchers with reputable performance metrics on their resume, including Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson and Dellin Betances.  Again, the question arises as to why a player is readily available.  Is it past performance fueling new paydays or injury recovery or bad clubhouse fit?  Do you remember, for example, when they decided the solution to their bullpen woes was named Anthony Swarzak?

 

Once again the Mets find themselves in rather desperate straits when it comes to relief pitching.  Much to everyone's surprise, after an initial rocky week or so, Edwin Diaz was just what they hoped he would be when they acquired him.  He's about the only sure bet going into 2021.  He finished the short season with a 2-1 record, a 1.75 ERA, 6 saves and 50 strikeouts in just over 25 IP.  You really can't ask for better than that.  

 

After Diaz, unfortunately, it's pretty murky.  Jeurys Familia is on the payroll for one more year.  He was flat-out awful in 2019 but improved in 2020.  He's not pitching like when he was the closer, but a sub 4.00 ERA is generally considered liveable for the major leagues.  He's not worth what he's getting paid, but then I'd said when they intended him to be a setup guy they were making a grave mistake.  Now they have to pay one more year and hope he finally puts it all together.  

 

Seth Lugo has been brilliant out of the pen, but the horrific and injury/illness-plagued starting pitching had him once again making noise about converting to starter.  From Lugo's perspective that made sense since starters get paid more than middle relievers, but he quickly established why he is not a starting pitcher.  His ending stats were stomach-turning, with only his strikeout numbers being a positive.  I sincerely hope they will return him to the bullpen where he's found great success.

 

So there you have the top three relievers.  After that, the picture gets pretty murky.  

 

Dellin Betances has an option he is likely to use which will keep him on the Mets.  He could opt out and look for a job elsewhere, but when you finish the year with a 7.71 ERA and a WHIP over 2.00, your options are going to be fairly limited.

 

Then you have the various recycling projects like Chasen Shreve.  He kept the ERA a tick under 4.00 and is left handed while costing next to nothing.  He's likely back.

 

Steven Matz is another possibility for the pen, but given his nearly 10.00 ERA as a starter last year, many are suggesting the Mets might just send him on his merry way to see if he becomes the pitching equivalent of Travis d'Arnaud or Justin Turner who found success in their post-Mets career.

 

Robert Gsellman was pitching in the Steve Matz range of incompetency and finished with an injury.  He's another one on the chopping block to preserve a roster spot for someone else.

 

Jared Hughes was not very good either, pitching in the high 4's and allowing an awful lot of baserunners.  I could see them inviting him back but I don't hold out much hope he's the solution to their problem.

 

Brad Brach was brought into the Mets universe again in 2020 after a brief trial in 2019.  He performed like a Mets relief pitcher -- a 5.84 ERA and walked just as many as he struck out.  I lump him in the same category as Hughes.

 

About the only reliever who had little exposure and might be worth another look is Erasmo Ramirez who, in 14.1 IP, delivered a 0.63 ERA and kept runners off base.  At age 30 he's probably not turned into a dynamo all of the sudden, but given what others have done he certainly worth another look.

 

The younger Miguel Castro is worth keeping around for minor league fodder as he is just 25 and could still improve over the wild man who was walking way too many in his Mets debut.

 

Out in the free agent marketplace there are many options to consider.  The one-time Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal had an outstanding 2020 for San Diego where he earned just $2 million.  He could be a Justin Wilson replacement for less money.  

 

Another blast from the past is Greg Holland who pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA for Kansas City while earning less money than Seth Lugo.  

 

Tyler Clippard also had a productive 2020 while playing for the Twins.  He was earning in the low $2 million range.

 

Brandon Kintzler also did well during this short season.  He was earning $4 million in Miami.  He has a track record of some major league success.

 

I would love to see the Mets make a pitch for Steve Cishek who is a little more expensive.  He had an awful 2020 but is a career 2.78 ERA sidearmer who would give me good Jeff Innis flashbacks.  He earned $6 million last year and will likely cost less in 2021 to the acquiring team.  

 

Other reputable FAs include Tony Watson, Brad Hand and Kirby Yates.  Watson would be medium priced, Yates down after a short and ineffective 2020, but Hand would come at a premium (and want closing duties).  

 

One free agent worth considering who floundered as a reliever is former Washington Nationals effective starter Gio Gonzalez.  He won't cost much, could be auditioned in the pen and provide a reasonable backup starting pitcher option if injuries or ineffectiveness force the club's hand.  

 

There are always trade routes to consider, too, but first the Mets need to decide who is staying and who is going.