Reese Kaplan -- Fixing the Anemic Offense

If you want to get into a major argument with fellow Mets fans, innocently ask the question, “So what are the Mets greatest needs if they’re serious about being a first place team?”

The stunning range of answers is staggering.  First you’ll likely hear in general about the moribund offense that is second to worst in baseball.  Then you’ll hear about injuries and how no club has been hit nearly as hard.  Then you’ll hear about starting pitching.  Then relievers.  Then you’ll get into position-specific rants.  Luis Rojas and his coaches will get animosity from some.  Front office people will be raked over the coals.  Even the new owner will get some venom for not simply buying a pennant.

Gee, isn’t the team in first place?

Still, behind every argument there’s usually some element of truth.  The first issue raised is as good a place to start as any.  How is it that the club is so anemic when it comes to scoring runs that a .250 hitter is a cleanup option?  

So the question that must be considered is whether the team is in a chronically long slow start due to injuries and the changes to the baseball, or whether it’s time to do some wholesale changes to the offensive side of the roster.  Right now many are heaping their hostility on formerly popular players like Jeff McNeil, Dom Smith, Michael Conforto and Pete Alonso.  

The latter is particularly frustrating to watch as he has a current line of .257/15/45.  That’s worth a middling 1.4 WAR though he’s on pace for more than 30 HRs and more than 90 RBIs.  His first base compadre who has spent the majority of the season in left field, Dom Smith, is actually doing worse.  He has the same .257 AVG, but is sporting just 9 HRs and 36 RBIs.  Both have fallen off from the fans’ and club’s expectations in a big way.  

Free-agent-to-be Conforto is even worse.  He has missed some time due to injury, but thus far in 2021 he is delivering a .200 AVG with just 2 HRs and 16 RBIs over the course of 155 ABs.  Even if you quadrupled the numbers for a full season’s production, that’s just 8 HRs and 64 RBIs for a guy hoping to hit the $20 million plus per season range as a free agent.  He’s picked a particularly bad time for a poor year and the Mets would be foolish to extend a Qualifying Offer unless they want to surpass the Neil Walker debacle.  For that $17.2 million paycheck they got 10 HRs and 36 RBIs before trading his .264 bat to Milwaukee midway through the year.  

Jeff McNeil is likely the hardest one to understand.  He was a career .319 hitter over his first three years playing for the Mets.  This season he’s at .243 with 3 HRs and 12 RBIs over 152 ABs.  Many are already completely soured on him and advocate bringing in someone to replace him on the infield.  Wow, that appears to be very short-sighted to me, though any offensive help would certainly be welcome at any of the eight positions on the field.  

I won’t even get started on the contributions from 2021 newcomers James McCann and Francisco Lindor.  Suffice to say they are not performing as was expected when they were acquired.

Some folks are advocating incremental change types of trades where you get someone who will fortify the bench or push one of the underperforming regulars out of the starting lineup.  Others want to see a major impact type of player brought on board.  It would seem to me that if the club is serious about building for its future, the latter approach is the way to go.  The problem is that securing a high level performer requires giving up solid MLB talent in exchange or highly regarded prospects.  

For example, if the Cubs are seriously out of contention and realize they’re going to lose Kris Bryant through free agency, then you need to give them a sizable reduction in payroll expense if you’re trading major league players or fortify their future by giving up hot prospects from the minors.  For example, Ronny Mauricio without a change of position has no future with Lindor locked up for ten years.  At the major league level would you do an even swap of Conforto for Bryant with some mid level minor leaguer thrown in?  Conforto earns $7 million less than does Bryant, but that’s only a $3.5 million payroll savings for half a season.  Also, bear in mind that both clubs would lose their QO draft pick option if they trade an upcoming free agent in mid season per baseball rules.  A lot of folks root for the laundry and feel Conforto is too good to “give away” in a deal like that.  For a matter of perspective, Bryant is a former MVP player.  Conforto is still aspiring to be as good as Kevin McReynolds.  

Then there’s the incremental talent approach, looking to add a guy like Jonathan Schoop who earns very little and is having a solid season for the Tigers.  Bringing in someone like him likely pushes McNeil to 3B with Jonathan Villar, Luis Guillorme, Jose Peraza and someday J.D. Davis hitting the bench.  It likely wouldn’t take much to get him but personally I have more faith in a solid season from Bryant than I do from Schoop.  

Next time around we’ll look at some of the pitching options.