After Wednesday's double-header split with the Brewers, the Mets stand 4 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East, with no signs that any of the teams behind them have the talent or depth of good players for a sustained run to overtake us.
The Phillies have no bullpen, the Nationals have no depth, and the Marlins have no hitting, all are recipes for mediocrity.
The Mets on the other hand, have talent across the board, some underperforming, some just returning from injury, and some soon returning from injury. I can say with the possible exception of Taijuan Walker, no Mets player has exceeded expectations, and many are way below their career norms. Yet here we are, 4 games ahead, and on our way to a playoff spot.
So if you're Zack Scott and want to make a trade--who would you want? What are the risks involved? Will an addition be significant enough above the current incumbent to justify giving away a prospect? I have my doubts.
The problem with the trade market, is in part, due to the Mets top-heavy coterie of prospects. We have some elite talent, including Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty, each of whom are top 100 prospects in the game currently, and each at least at the very least a year away from the bigs.
The time to arrival is an important caveat; Jarred Kelenic was only a lower top 100 prospect at the time of his trade for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, and now is a top 10 future star; by the time Alvarez/Baty/Mauricio are closing in on the show they will all likely be top 50 prospects. We also have Mark Vientos who is having a break-out season at AA, and Matt Allan and Pete Crow-Armstrong, both of whom are very high upside players out due to injury.
Despite a wide array of talent, we have very few mid-level talents, the types that helped us land Jay Bruce in 2016 (Dilson Herrera/Max Wotell), or even Marcus Stroman in '19 (Simeon Woods-Richardson/Anthony Kay).
The landmark deadline trade from 2015, when we landed Yoenis Cespedes, did force us to give up future ROY Michael Fulmer, but that trade was also aided by a mid-level prospect in Luis Cessa. The Mets also had a significant surplus of starting pitching at the time, giving them the luxury to make a bold trade.
The current Mets roster of prospects are not deep. After the top 7-8, which are players who are all potential core players, there is a very steep drop off. The player market also is not deep, and the acquisition costs may not be worth it. There is no clear upgrade that one can argue is as urgent as Cespedes was in 2015.
We've heard rumblings of interest in 3B, but we have J.D. Davis coming back, and we've gotten stellar defense and timely hitting from a combination of Jonathan Villar, Jose Peraza, and Luis Guillmore. Could those 4 carry the load? Other than that position -- who are you replacing?
On the starting pitching side, Tylor Megill has been a revelation, and he may be the type of long-term back-to middle of the rotation innings eater we've been craving. With Carlos Carrasco only a few weeks away, Noah Syndergaard and David Peterson not far behind, do we really want to give up a big prospect for a pitcher? We are 3rd in the majors in pitching WAR after all.
The only type of pitcher that makes sense would be to land another ace-type pitcher, to accompany Jacob deGrom in the post-season, and I'm not sure there is anyone but Max Scherzer out there that can provide that type of impact, and I doubt the Nats trade him to the Mets.
With the situation laid out, unless a really good opportunity presents itself, I argue that we should stand pat. Short of a major injury, I think we can/have to expect better performances over the second half from Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Dom Smith, and James McCann, each of whom had, undisputedly bad first halves. We have gotten Brandon Nimmo back and are already bearing the fruits of his return.
Standing pat allows us to retain our top prospects, build out our farm system further, as we strive not only for success this season, but for sustained success, something the Mets have *never* had. We add in our next first round pick in next week's draft, and we are looking at an upper-echelon farm system by next year, with an owner willing to spend, and a core that should be in their prime for at least the next 3-4 years.
Standing pat, to me at least, makes the most sense in both the short and-long term.
3 comments:
Well written. I agree, especially with our injured pitchers getting closer to returning.
The Mets are operating a multi-stage rocket. The first stage of the rocket may have the thrust to go deeper into space than their 3 rival teams.
But the next stage of the rocket is important too - the one that will get us to a World Series ring. Half of that stage is what, if anything, we do to get better. The other half is what the likely opponents (SFG, LAD, SD, maybe the Red Sox) might do to get better at the deadline.
All your points are excellent - but in the post-season warfare to (hopefully) come, we want to be equally armed and dangerous.
But maybe standing pat is correct - the one real shortfall has been the offense - and I would not be surprised if the 2nd half offense outscores the first half offense by a full run per game.
That said, Carlos Cortes is a good mid-level prospect. Will he be better than Dilson Herrera? I don't know - but he could be valuable in a trade without touching the jewels.
I don't think they need a big trade and I don't think they should give up any high-quality prospects. Would hate to lose Ginn, for example.
They should add another quality bullpen arm. Look at the payroll relief crown. They should also pickup another fringe starter, just in case. Reinforcements.
No need for giving up quality for a Bryant rental. The Donaldson contract will quickly become a problem. In addition, no reason to kick Villar to the curb. JD coming back. Peraza.
We are five games up.
Jimmy
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