July 15, 2021
Here we are at the All-Star break and it’s time to take
stock of where the Mets stand. Going
into the season we felt fairly optimistic the Mets were a playoff bound team
with the only real roadblock being able to topple the Braves.
No one could have predicted the horrific injuries that have
beset the NL East reducing all the teams to a level of mediocrity. Going into the season, we expected the Mets
to have strong starting pitching backed up by a powerful lineup. Our major concern was the bullpen. My forecast was the Mets would win 93 games
and win the NL East title.
Overall the starting rotation has exceeded expectations despite
the fact that we have used 14 different starters thus far. Originally we thought Syndergaard and
Carrasco would have returned by mid-June.
Tylor Megill has been a revelation and a welcome addition to the beleaguered
staff. Realistically, he should be toiling in AAA and refining his craft. Recently, there have been some clinks in the
armor as Stroman and Walker have been less effective recently. Even the GOAT has been less dominating. Help is on the way as Peterson should be
coming off the DL this week and Carrasco ready to rejoin the team within a
couple of weeks.
It’s hard to feel optimistic about the bullpen. Outside of Lugo, Diaz, Loup and Familia,
there’s not much to shout about. It blew
my mind when Rojas decided to bring Castro in on Sunday to protect a one-run
lead. When he unexpectedly survived one inning, why tempt fate and ask for a
second inning? That move forced him to
ask Diaz for a five out save. Not a good
move. If the Mets are to be competitive
for the balance of the season the bullpen need to be shored up.
My pre-season
predications are so far off base they belong on fantasy island. Every regular position player has
underperformed. I expected Lindor to
have a MVP season. My preseason forecasts:
BA HRS RBIs
Nimmo .270 15 60
McNeil .320 22 75
Lindor .290 32 110
Alonso .260 42 120
Conforto .315 32 95
Davis .250 16 55
Smith .300 25 90
McCann/Nido 25 80
Clearly, they have not performed even remotely close to my
projections. Going forward for the
balance of the season, I believe Nimmo will continue to perform well although I
would like to see more power from him.
McNeil is our best hitter and he seems to have found his groove lately –
although I have issues with the way he is deployed. Conforto can be expected to do well for the
balance of the season. At this stage I don’t
have high expectations for Lindor, Smith, Alonso or McCann and who knows what
JD will contribute. It’s maddening how
poorly these four have produced in the clutch.
A number of sportswriters consider Rojas as a candidate for
manager of the year. I see no signs of a
strong managerial strategy. I am profoundly
disturbed by the lack of aggression on the base paths. For instance, a week ago Lindor drove in
Nimmo with a single to start the game. The
pitcher on the mound had given up 13 stolen bases with none caught. You would think the perfect opportunity to try
to manufacture a run. You would have
thought wrong. This past weekend the
Mets used an “opener” on Sunday. Would
it not have made more sense to use the opener for one of the twin bills and
save Stroman for Sunday where he could be expected to give you more innings.
Maybe I’m mistaken but I can see the season going south
very quickly. They need to sweep the
Pirates this weekend to make a statement they are on the right track.
Ray
5 comments:
Hi Ray.
I disagree on the 2nd half trajectory. I think with all the offense coming back now, it will explode in the second half. And the back up guys will go back to perhaps half (or less) of the at bats they've had - and while the "regulars" have underperformed with the bats, they've hit much better than the fill ins. The key to me is let them stay healthy, and it is possible the Mets will score a run more per game.
We can only hope the pitching does great in the second half again. It is a lot to ask for them to do that. I would acquire a pitcher, and then with Cookie returning, it could be a strong finish.
Peterson has been very erratic - I think his 2nd half role will be considerably diminished.
TB shot
I tend to agree with you that the second half offense "exploding" could be what happens here. I really did not understand why the first half offense same batters from last season started out so slowly. But 2020 was a weird shortened season, we have to all remember too.
Brandon is already fully back (you know Brandon) and Peter is always going to be Peter no matter what happens and we can count on him for that. The platoon at catcher is fine (James and Tomas) and together they should average out to a decent .250 BA with solid HR production from that position.
So for me, it will come down to how Dominic, Jeff, Michael, JD, and Francisco bat second half. The bench players (to me) are solid and were a big part of not allowing this team to "injury plague sink" first half, as they could have missing so many starting fielders and key sluggers.
I think we will see significant upgrade from these five, and it will in fact greatly impact the Mets second half offensive statistics including the number of games won.
As far as the pitching goes.
I think that Cookie will be a really good stabilizing influence more here for this rotation as well, although really the first half rotation was solid overall I thought with only a small amount of disappointment from a guy we are all waiting on lefty David Peterson. He will be back. David just simply has way too much talent going on not to be. I know David will "reformulate" down at Syracuse and be back probably around middle of August or so. He'll have it going on there soon. Just watch.
On Noah. A September sometime return would be something. But it is hard to predict such an injury's recovery because it is so individualized.
Tylor Megill just simply blew me away after coming up.
I literally had to rub my eyes watching him pitch. I could not believe it. Normally, a starting pitcher like Tylor is heralded by MLB when drafted. But Tylor came to the Mets in a later on round, so this was even more amazing to me. How every other team miss on their chance (ahead of the Mets) to draft this guy, I simply do not know. But what a terrific addition he is here and just at the right time first half when injuries to other Mets starters who were being counted went on and on.
To me, Tylor has top-end starter skills, pitch control and selection, mound presence, and demeanor. I still cannot believe how outstanding this guy is. And he is a "left coastie" too, just like the great Thomas George Seaver was.
I expect big second halves from both Mets starters Taijuan "All Star" Walker and the never to be underestimated phenom Marcus Stroman. These two excellent starters will factor in here big time now through the WS parade. Put it in the books!
I don't know. Hopefully the offense explodes in the second half. Not sure I'm seeing much signs of life yet.
I'd like to see them improve the bullpen.
Bullpen improvement has to be #1. I just don't get one Closer when we have to have such a deep pitching staff these days we need 2 closer's at least and maybe we don't suffer last Sunday's loss. Diaz is only good when he comes in to start an inning and only 1 inning at a time so a 1a and 1b situation would work and not over tax such a critical position.
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