TROPHIES CAN BE $$ COSTLY $$
An ESPN headline the other day (just before the Dodgers agreed to sign the best available free agent reliever in baseball) read:
2025 World Series Odds: Soto signing moves Mets behind only Dodgers as favorites
It also showed the over/under for wins and losses in 2025.
Dodgers were at 101.5. My guess is with "that reliever", Tanner Scott, who will tan plenty in sunny Los Angeles, they climb to 105.5 +/-, and if I was a betting man, I'd still take that bet. 110 should be easy for them.
120, anyone? Meanwhile:
Yankees and Braves? 93.5
Mets and Phillies? 91.5
Just 91.5? That is not good enough. The Mets need to do more.
Odds are odds, of course. Teams could hit these early targets or do much better, or much worse, for many reasons. Why? The games have to be played, injuries happen, slumps, breakout seasons, and such.
That said, let's hope the Mets do a few more free agent or trade deals that get them to 96.5.
That still won't be as good as the Daggone Daggers, but the Mets only need to reach the NLCS against the Daggers and somehow outplay them at that point to get to the World Series.
A lot can happen in 7 games that would not happen in 162.
Anything less than reaching the World Series, regardless of the “Dominance of the Daggers”, would be disappointing to starving Mets fanatics.
Don't get SOCLOSE, only to miss out. Spend more. The Daggers sure have.
HOW ABOUT - I DUNNO - A PROFAR FOR FIRST BASE?
Profar had a strong 2024...and he is actually a better fielder at first base (72 career games, just one error) than Pete....and he'd be a lot cheaper, I believe.
And he is far more versatile.
Profar and another bullpen stud, for the same price as Pete?
Pourquoi pas, monsieurs?
IS WAR FAIR TO POLAR BEARS?
We all know the saying “All is fair and love and war.” But, it seems, WAR is unfair to first baseman. At least, so says a Kansas City first baseman in Will Zimmerman’s New York Post article.
Vinnie Pasquantino said the following, as it involves Pete Alonso:
“If you play first base, you essentially have to put up an .850 OPS to get paid nowadays,” Pasquantino began. “[That’s] fine, you need to perform. But teams use WAR…If you play first, it is very difficult to get that WAR number up because it gets so trudged down, simply, by the position … What these [front office] guys have determined is that players who handle the ball — almost, more than anybody, in terms of catching the baseball — are the least valuable people out there.”
He said more, but it is his article, not mine.
Zimmerman also adds of the following, however:
“On the other side of the diamond, Alonso accumulated a -1.1 defensive WAR rating (though only 80 players finished 2024 with a positive mark in the category). Baseball Savant, a website that provides advanced analytics and visualizations for Major League Baseball, is less flattering of Alonso’s defensive work. In 2024, he ranked 83rd among 84 qualified first basemen in terms of runs prevented and 82nd in terms of outs above average.”
So, Pete is what everyone thought he be on draft day 2016:
A true slugger - and a bad fielding 1B.
At a position already defensively under appreciated by WAR stats.
Hence his being treated cheaply in contract talks .
Now, if Pete played an Ozzie Smith caliber SS, he’d get $400- $500 million.
But he doesn’t - Pete is Chuck Hiller in the field, or Marv Throneberry, take your pick - or don’t.
9 comments:
Sorry Vinnie. It goes with the territory. You unfortunately have to accept $23MM per year rather than $30 that SS get, or the $14MM current value that Santander got…. He should really be complaining… or relievers that throw out their arms to get those critical outs and are only at $16MM…
What a loser!
Gus, I share those crocodile tears.
I will be discussing the Mets relief situation on Sunday
I don't see how the Dodgers lose a game this year. Believe we are better than the Braves and on par with the Yanks.
I might get back on my WAR bandbox in an upcoming article, but it does seem to be true that first baseman get the short end of the stick when it comes to WAR, particularly those that were not considered exceptional fielders. Fred McGriff was truly a great hitter for a lot of years finishing with 497 homers and an .886 OPS. That got him 52.6 bWAR. Keith Hernandez, regarded as a superior fielder, but less accomplished hitter accumulated 60.3 bWAR. John Olerud
finished with 58.8 bWAR with a better offensive stat line than Hernandez and almost as good a fielder.
First Basemen are supposed to be hitters first. If they are adequate first baseman (which I consider Pete to be), they can hold a job for several to many years to keep the bat in the line-up. That is not as true with any other position.
Look guys we are the Mets and all of us have been around long enough to know never take anything for granted I just hope our well heeled owner will keep throwing money at this team which should mean playoffs every year. Remember Wilpon could still own this team God forbid and then we would be having a very different discussion or just throw in the towel and be Dodger fans. As fans you pray for an ownership and FO group as good as we have and I'm forever grateful and can't wait for ST to start it's been a very boring off season after the Soto signing so LGM!
Once before I had mentioned in a comment that it is in fact true that WAR is "unfair" to first basemen. There is a positional adjustment factor in the formula that benefits the middle and disadvantages the corners when you compare players head to head.
I like your assertion that the Mets need to do better than 91.5 wins. When we consider last year's success, we have to remember that the favored Braves were not the Braves last year - they were decimated by injuries. One would have to expect that this year will be a little kinder to them and they will once again be a very formidable opponent in the NL East.
Don't stop signing, I would "Profar" the Mets add to their payroll
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