1/20/25

Tom Brennan: Let's Look at the Mets' Pen; Alonso?


PAUL SEWALD TIME, AGAIN?

The Mets agreed to sign ex-Braves reliever AJ Minter.  YAY!

Assuming he passes the physical (he had hip surgery in August, hip surgery survivor David Peterson just reminded me), of course. He should be fine.  

So how does the pen stack up, assuming he is well enough to pass the physical?

Edwin Diaz - fine

AJ Minter - fine

Reed Garrett - some shaky stretches last year, along with some dominating ones.  2025? Time will tell.

Dedniel Nunez - his forearm injury has to concern one.  If healthy, though, he could be a real, real positive.

Huascar Brazoban - I think he will be decent.

Sean Reid-Foley - should be dynamite for 15-20 IP. Then the IL, right?

Jose Butto - I think he will be decent, like Brazaban.

While there are other pen arms in the mix on the 40 man roster, the Mets generally do burn through 30+ pitchers per year.  I think having another strong BP arm would help, in a few ways: 

a) if the relief staff stays healthy, maybe having more top-end quality in the bullpen could reduce the need to use marginal fill-in pitchers during 2025. 

b) Lower the bullpen ERA and increase wins and saves.  Using Edwin for even 4 out saves more than a few times is risky.  

Anyway:

Tanner Scott coming to the Mets, after the Mets went for AJ Minter is very unlikely.  Too much $$. (The Dodgers came up with the scratch, though).

Chapman?  Risky and pricey.  Turns 37 in a month.

Jantsen?  He only wants to close.  He thus won't as a Met.

Daviv Robertson?  He is ancient - not inclined to go there.

To me, that leaves Kirby Yates (but he may strongly wish to close), or Paul Sewald, who turns 35.  Paul was injured a bit in 2024. But he is 19-11, with 81 saves, as an ex-Met. And 299 Ks in 229 post-Mets IP.  

Off the top of my head, I'd go with Yates, but if he is inflexible, go with Sewald.  

Paul would have a chance to show that his 1-14 Mets career record was a total thing of the past, due to 3 things: 

1) Failure for Mets to tweak/fix him like Seattle simply did, 

2) Very bad luck - when he pitched, the Mets' bats went comatose, 

3) Pitched for bad Mets teams at the time.

Understanding the Mets are already at almost $300 million with Minter, who would you sign as a second quality reliever after AJ Minter?  

And, do you stop there?

I think one more arm (Yates or Sewald) is good enough.  

If a rash of injuries come, deal with that as necessary at the time.  Clay Holmes could move back to the pen, but yo-yo's tend to break, so let's not - he is a starter - leave him there.

Megill in the pen?  If Sewald could go from dreadful to devastating, maybe Tylor can go from mediocre to superlative, huh?

As I see it:

The Mets need a top 5 pen to be serious World Series contenders.

And right now, they need more to be a top 5 pen.


ALONSO?

Mack has an embargo on discussing Alonso any longer.  Allow me to avoid the embargo to say this:

Seems he is gone.  But he is still unsigned.  If the Mets were willing to do 3 years, $70 million, why not do a contract paying him $30 million of that $70 million in year one, when he is 30 years old, with a team-or-Pete opt-out after year 1?   Maybe a $2 million buy out.

Pete should have enough confidence in himself that he is worth at least $40 million for 2026 and 2027, when he will be 31-32.  

The Mets, from their standpoint, could use him for just one year, part ways, and sign the better, younger 1B Vlad Guerrero.  

Perhaps with Pete, the Mets have enough to win the division.  Pete can get playoff action with the Mets, and playoff pay - or sign with a team that won't.  I'd opt for door # 1.

I am still, to be clear,  not against a money-saving Winker-Meneses platoon at first base, even if I am the only one on the planet that has been suggesting that.  If Pete costs $30 million and Winker/Meneses cost $10 million, the saved money could be used for bullpen upgrades.  

Remember, the Mets' pen in 2024 was 17th in ERA.  Over-invest in that pen, I say.  

Meneses perhaps may be deemed "cooked" but as a reminder, he has hit well in 2022-24 in the majors (less in 2024), and hits lefties well, and Winker hits righties well.  Voila!

Arenado?  Read Reese's earlier article today.


7 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

I am ready Joe Juan Soto’ inaugural Mets season.

Mack Ade said...

I said I wouldn't discuss Alonso anymore

I never said he was gone

That Adam Smith said...

Santander to the Jays for 5 yrs @ $18m per. Almost certainly one less landing spot for Alonso. That’s about $5m per less than we offered Pete. The years might anger Pete, but In 3 yrs here he’d make just a few dollars less than Santander will in four. Say what you will about Stearns, but his read of the market was right on the nose.

Tom Brennan said...

Adam, if Pete waits two more weeks, he may drop to MLB minimum.

That Adam Smith said...

Less if he agrees to stay late after home games to help clean up the clubhouse. Other than maybe the Angels, who reportedly offered him 2/$50, I don’t know where he has left to go. Up the offer to him to 3/$81, which matches Freeman money, and I bet it gets done.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I am the one that suggested he is gone, not you. But maybe he will return, afterall, like someone else did today, and end up hitting 47.

Paul Articulates said...

I don't think Sewald would willingly rejoin the Mets. He has said some unflattering things about his time here. Also, he is not really that good. He had his day in Seattle. Don't overpay for one good stretch.