MACK - Deep Dive: Alexander Canario

 

I read last week about a young slugging outfielder that the Cubs had DFA’d in order to activate Justin Turner and I was tempted to write about him as a possible pickup by the Mets. Low and behold, they did just that on Monday.

The Mets sent the Cubs some moolah for once highly projected prospect, outfielder Alexander Canario. The 24-year old produced a 0.3-WAR in 25 at-bats last season, hitting .280, and producing a .797 OPS. He also produced 18 home runs for AAA-Iowa last season, in 247 at-bats.

The site, North Side Baseball, had this to say about Canario:

The hard-hitting outfield prospect, Alexander Canario, is in a very weird position in the Cubs' organization. On the surface, Canario had a pretty good year in Iowa, hitting 18 home runs in under 300 plate appearances while posting an isolated slugging over .270 and an overall line good for 116 wRC+. However, a longer look at the righty gives you some pause as to what he can be moving forward. 

Canario's sub 63% contact rate was nearly 10% below that of the Triple-A average, and if he carried over the same contact rate to the MLB (which, considering the jump in talent, would be hard to do), would put him below every qualified hitter at the level. The results at Iowa suggest one thing, but the processes suggest another. A

In the end, I don't think Canario has much of a pathway with the Cubs. The Cubs already have four OF starters for three positions between Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and the recently opted-in Cody Bellinger, and that doesn't factor in at least two prospects Canario is behind as well in Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara. 

If the Cubs opt to keep Mike Tauchman, Canario might be no better than eighth in the pecking order. While I don't think he will offer a ton of trade value, I suspect that he could be on his way out of the organization this offseason as a 2nd or 3rd piece in a smaller trade. 

A team that's pretty empty in the OF could give him a chance to see if the power can outpace the contact issues, and maybe he could carve out a Patrick Wisdom-esque type of career. There's a decent chance that Canario is just that of a Quadruple-A player, but I remain rooting for him to succeed somewhere.

Another site, Cubbies Crib, may have written about a hint why the Mets went after this guy:

Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Canario has gotten reps at first base during the early stages of Spring Training, and the Cubs are looking to explore that possibility further. With the Cubs also prepping career utility man Jon Berti to potentially be the backup to Michael Busch at first base this season, Canario serving in that role would allow Berti to serve in the role he has been his entire career--a capable replacement at either second base or third base.

It would also seem that the Cubs' quest for a backup first baseman was tied to their pursuit of Alex Bregman. With Bregman now with the Boston Red Sox, it is fair to wonder if the Cubs' rumored interest in Justin Turner picks up. While Turner earned his reputation as a third baseman with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he is more suited for a backup first base role at this stage of his career.

I agree with what others have written about this guy. I just don’t see him as a future starter in the majors. A tick above Alex Ramirez maybe. But maybe, just maybe, this could be an alternative to a DH, while, at the same time, give the Mets a back-up first baseman in case the Polar Bear takes a ball in the eye again.