Let’s Inspect This Together
The 2024 Mets pitchers fell a 3 run HR short of surrendering 700 runs.
697 opponents in 2024 scampered across the plate.
That’s 4.32 runs per game. Not great.
Will the 2025 pitching staff improve on that number?
I say yes.
I am tossing a dart at the dartboard and saying the team will allow just 654 runs in 2025. A modest 43 run improvement.
Yesterday, I suggested they’d score a whopping 854 runs in 2025.
An offensive increase of 86 runs.
Put those two together, and the Mets will be +200 in runs in 2025.
Last year, they were +71 and won 89 games.
+200 in runs is an exciting thought.
What think you?
10 comments:
+200 runs, or bust.
It helps to have Senga back - he should be better than last year's fill-ins. Manaea got it together later in the year, and he should give us a full year of "better". The bullpen is better and should give up less runs. But is Montas better than Sevvy was - don't think so. Is Peterson going to put together a full year of strong performance - history says no. Will Clay Holmes turn into a more effective starter than Quintana - maybe. I think it is a wash right now. Glad the team will be scoring more runs.
+200 might be possible, but I agree that most of that will be the better offense
The pen is better. IMO.
Days of Thunder. And, happily, the season starts in warm climates: Houston, then Tampa. April 4 is home opener. A reasonable weather time.
The most important part of the season is winning. For example: if you have comfortable leads, say five runs, you don’t want to see walks. So, you will challenge a hitter in a spot you wouldn’t if it was only a two run lead. That can occasionally lead to an extra run or two, but your goal is to get 27 outs with your team leading. A manager and a pitching coach are looking for 27 outs; how can we get there. I don’t think it’s fair to judge runs allowed but for sure, good teams have lower ERA’s.
The Mets last year were 17th is ERA (3.96), 17th in FIP (4.05), and 17th in fWAR. I would say they were comfortably 17th best in baseball. Can we be top 10?
Breaking this down further, the Mets starters were 19th in fWAR, the relievers were 13th.
The Mets starting pitching is better than the staff that began 2024. Remember, that was a pitching staff consisting of Brewers' castoff, Adrian Houser,
and without David Peterson. With that said, I believe that the starting 6 we will see come playoff time may be somewhat different than currently speculated. Add Sproat and subtract Montas for one; replace Holmes (who will not be successful as a SP with only two pitches, and will be moved to the bullpen). Replacing Holmes will probably come in the form of a trade-deadline acquisition. This is also hoping that the SPs stay relatively healthy. Of course, that is an unknown.
I'd take 10th best in pitching, and 2nd best in hitting, any day, in 2025. Do that and we will win a lot.
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