Lindor a Future Hall of Famer?
Generally, as I see it, guys who swing the bat dynamically make the Hall of Fame, based on a high career average and high stats of other types.
Most really good hitters who did not make the HOF missed out because of insufficient plate appearances. If Keith Hernandez and Donnie Baseball each had about 1,500 more high quality PAs, it probably would have gotten both inducted.
Same with pitchers.
Mariano Rivera was a lead pipe cinch, in part because he threw 1,283 innings.
Fellow uber reliever Billy Wagner barely snuck in, though, in large part because he threw 380 fewer career innings than Mo did.
So, the Mets currently have a SS named Francisco Lindor, who ya may have heard of. If you haven’t been living under a rock.
He will be playing as a 31 year old in 2025.
So far, in 6,116 career plate appearances, he has hit .274/.342/.476.
He's had 304 doubles, 248 HRs, 894 runs scored, 770 RBIs, 185 steals.
All really good numbers, except for his career average and OB % of .274 and .342, which are solid but not "HOF Superior".
When you start to add “except for’s” to the mix with future potential Hall of Famers, you need other pluses to augment their future HOF picture.
So, here goes:
He has 2 Gold Gloves and is considered a well above average SS fielding-wise.
- A Plus.
He is a real leader.
- A Plus.
He also came in 2nd in MVP voting in a year where Otani was insanely good, otherwise he would have been top banana.
- A Plus.
What added "plus" besides those that he likely needs to make the Hall of Fame is a ton more plate appearances.
Batting lead off sure helps there.
Simply playing a LOT of games (which he does each year) helps, too.
Let’s say he at least accumulates the following for his entire career:
10,000 PAs, 9,000 ABs, 500 doubles, 410 HRs, 1,450 runs, 1,150 RBIs, 260 SBs, and .265/.336/.460.
Add-ins: Excellent glove. Strong leadership.
Do that, and to me, he is someday going to be voted into the HOF.
It won't be any time soon, but we'll see if he makes it. If we’re still around.
You know, that “still around” thing? Why shouldn’t MLB do this:
One rule I'd really like to see changed is the 5 years out of baseball before eligibility starts. If, after 2 years, a guy formally declares he has no plans whatsoever to return to playing the game, make him eligible right then and there, not after 5 LONG seasons, only to have dumb writers delay them even further.
Thoughts?
THIS GUY WINKER IS PURE FUEL ADDITIVE
JESSE WINKER AIN’T NO STINKER
Righties constitute 65% to 70% of all innings, I would estimate. So Winker, a left handed hitter, would see a lot of righties potentially.
His career slash line vs. righties? .276/.377/.462.
How good is that?
Francisco Lindor, career, vs. lefties and righties? .274/.342/.476.
That’s how good Jesse is vs. righties.
9 comments:
I believe Keith is not in the Hall because the media hated him, plus his drug issues. He's the best defensive 1st baseman to ever play the game
What exactly is everyone smoking regarding Winker, and where do I find some? In eight years in MLB, he has accumulated a 6.5 bWAR. That was 2.9 his last year in Cincinnati and 2.0 last year. Do the math to figure out how much bWAR he averaged the other six years. And, of that amazing 2.0 bWAR that he had last year, 1.9 of it was with the Nationals, and the rest with the Mets. Again, what are y’all smoking and don’t tell me it’s slamming helmets or a good series against the Dodgers that y’all are basing this on…
Pete's WAR is relative to at bats not that much higher. A big part of low Winker WAR is that he can't hit lefties. No doubt, career-wise, he is negative WAR vs lefties. Similar to Duda in that respect. So...he doesn't face lefties.
Jon, true, but if Keith had 1500 more quality PAs, they could not have kept him out. The numbers would have been too compelling. The media are jerks when it comes to voting - prima donnas.
I think that another plus for Lindor's case would be a World Series MVP. Could happen. Just need to get there.
Lindor is on a great path to the HOF - probably about halfway there. IF he can stay healthy, he should be able to put up the numbers Tom suggests and more. Average 20 HRs per year for 10 more years and he is at 448. I actually think good solid production for the next 8 years will get him there. He will certainly exceed Tom's run scored total if he hits in front of Soto for a few years.
My guess is that Winker is one of those guys that is greater than the sum of his parts. Some guys help the team with just their stats, some with their clubhouse character. Jose Iglesias was one of them and I suspect that Winker is also. They are valuable to have around. Too many Kevin McReynolds make a decent, but boring team that doesn't have the fire to go the extra mile.
R69, Winker brings fire. A similar lefty who hit righties well but lefties poorly was Lucas Duda. Lucas brought softness and was too lax in terms of taking too many pitches, trying to work walks. Give me Winker over Duda every time.
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