John Manuel –
Scouts and managers considered him the easy choice as the best pitching prospect in the FSL thanks to a premium fastball, notable as much for its arm-side run and ability to get in on righthanded hitters as for its premium 94-98 mph velocity. Noah Syndergaard adds a fine pitcher’s build and clean delivery, both indicative of durability. Scouts and managers in the FSL considered his secondary stuff—he throws both a curveball and slider as well as a firm changeup—closer to average, with the change more on the fringy side.
Brian Zarpentine –
Travis d’Arnaud is set up to be the starting catcher in 2014, and the Mets hope he can hold that position for many years to come. But considering his injury history and his inexperience at the major league level, the Mets need to make sure they have a competent backup, and their best bet is finding a veteran that knows going in that he’ll be a backup and who will be happy with that role. The Mets have solid catching depth with guys like Anthony Recker, Juan Centeno and Francisco Pena, but if d’Arnaud gets hurt, there’s no way they can feel good about going with any of those guys for an extended period. This means they’ll have to find a dependable veteran catcher in free agency. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/10/07/top-5-offseason-priorities-for-new-york-mets/?xgbODHfrxKMwQhsT.99
Mack – I don’t agree with Brian. You simply can’t solve everything in one year and I think going with a young catching crew is just fine. Now… if John Buck wants to come back for around $3mil a year…
Rob Patterson -
When all is said and done, I expect the nod to go to Ike Davis once again (unless he is traded), despite the fact that Lucas Duda has a better approach at the plate. The Mets are invested in Davis and his power potential. They have also seemed hesitant to admit their mistake in each of the following two seasons when they waited forever to send Davis down. With all the chances he has been afforded already, I'd just be surprised if he didn't get another. http://effingmets.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-mets-mess-at-first-base-davis-or.html
Mack – First of all… great new blog site from a veteran blogger… I agree with Rob. Given a choice between Ike or Lucas, I also have to stay with the pedigree pick. Both play the same kind of game with a bat in their hands, but Davis wins the tie-breaker with his potential Gold Glove defense. You know I would rather have Mike Napoli over both these guys, but, if I have to choose with what I have, I would go with Davis.
Steve Keane -
The one player of that financial magnitude that intrigues me is Matt Kemp. Kemp has been plagued by injuries this season and a slow healing ankle sprain is keeping him out of the Dodgers post season run but when healthy, Kemp is the player the Mets desperately need to assist in turning around the team’s losing frown. His combination of power and speed plus his outfield defense would be the big ticket acquisition that would make baseball stand up and notice that the Mets are back in business. http://www.kranepoolsociety.com/2013/10/07/matt-kemp-a-met-why-not/
Mack – Maybe Steve is on to something here. Maybe the only chance the 2014 Mets have is to take on some other team’s damaged goods. Something has to budge in the Dodgers outfield. Four all-stars, Kemp, Carl Crawford, Andre Eithier, and Yasiel Puig are under long term contracts here and someone has to go. The assumption has always been Either, who has had problems with manager Don Mattingly, but they seem to be in the past. Any trade of Kemp would first be considered a salary dump ($21.75mil/yr through 2019). It might surprise Mets fans how little it would take to pry him away. My guess… 100% of the contract plus two pitching prospects.
Christopher Soto -
Something to put on the morning report. What are the Colorado Rockies needs? With Helton gone they need a 1B and still need upgrades offensively. How about we send them Murphy (an upgrade over LaMahieu), Davis (could hit 40 bombs in Coors), Montero (groundball/control pitcher with High #3/Low #2 potential), and Nieuwenheis for Carlos Gonzalez, who is reportedly more likely to move than Tulo?
Mack – This is what the Democrats and Republicans are missing out on… negotiating. We’ve been throwing around different trade scenarios for either Troy Tulowitzki or Gonzales. They make more sense each time they are tweaked. This might be the best one because it included Rafael Montero, a pitcher that has already showed his stuff in a city (Vegas) similar to Denver. You also can give them a hoice betweek Duda or Davis. I like this one and Colorado could also, especially if the Mets took on 100% of the contract.
Michael Scannell –
All this talk about needing to add offense is justified and obvious. However, with David Price apparently hitting the trade market, would you trade any of the Mets' young pitching to acquire him? Getting him would give the Mets an Ace for 2014 and a top 2 of Harvey and Price after that. Would you be willing to make a deal for him, say starting with Wheeler and Niese? 2015 - SP1 Harvey, SP2 Price, SP3 Syndergaard… I don't know that I would....don't know if I wouldn't.
Mack – I have followed Price since his days in Vero Beach. He would cost you big time, but, IMO, he’s easily worth $15mil, probably much more. The secret to any trade here is health. If you has a crystal ball and could guarantee that Price would stay healthy while Harvey came back 100%, you would wind up with a legitimate SP1 to help you return to respect in 2014, and probably one of the top three SP1-3 in 2015. Yes, I’m always ready to consider a pitcher for pitcher deal. Price is a better pitcher than Wheeler and he will only be 28 next season. Plus, he’s a lefty. In a heartbeat.
And lastly, we’re always looking for additional Mets writers especially now during the slower, off-season. We especially invite writers who specialize on other teams, baseball history, fantasy, or baseball cards. Most of the writers here participate on a weekly basis, but there are no general rules so once a month is more than we would have had if you didn’t join us. Please contact me at macksmets@gmail.com and we’ll make the arrangements to join the site.
36 comments:
I agree that the Murphy, Ike, Kirk & Montero would be a good offer all around for Cargo. I think they could also be interested in a bullpen arm who has closer potential. If they made this deal early in the offseason and added Napoli early, I think Mets fans would be very happy. They could then wait out the shortstop and trade markets. They could still trade Flores and move young to 2B. They also have Duda who they could dangle.
They have many needs but acquiring our #4 & #5 hitters early, would leave them with a lot of options
Regarding the trade offer for CarGo, if I'm the Rockies and am satisfied with a core return of Montero (I thought he was a flyball pitcher), Davis and Murphy then I'm also asking for guys like DeGrom and Tapia - hard throwers with sinking stuff.
Soto (or anyone) - would you offer Murphy, Davis, Montero, Tapia and DeGrom for CarGo and, say, Pomeranz?
Imagine an offseason where, among other things, the Mets add CarGo and Abreu. That would be something.
What's the fascination with Pomeranz? I know he's a young lefty & former high draft pick but he just isn't very good. His numbers with Colorado over the last 3 seasons have been horrible. Awful WHIP and he walks too many batters.
The last time the mets traded for the bet pitcher in the game, they got burned big time and that was without giving up any decent prospects.
Yes, we'd all love to have Carlos Gomez back, but at the time it was a score. The contract ended up handcuffing the Mets thanks to Madoff , and only now are they free.
Price would cost a lot more than Santana did, and I'm sorry, but pitching isn't the Mets problem. They need hitting so why even bother upgrading a rotation that'll be fine as it is? It'll be cheaper in money and prospects to just upgrade the offense through free agency.
The reason is because you'd be trading league minimum players or prospects for Price, who'll make much more, and you'd still need to upgrade the offense anyway. I'd keep the pitching prospects.
No I would not....At this current point in time I feel DeGrom can put up numbers similar to Pomeranz.
As Kevin below said, Coors has not been the problem for Drew, its been the control. Plus with so much pitching in the upper levels there's no place for an unproven wild lefty.
More reason to target Gonzalez.....
He only makes $10.5MM next season. This allows to team to rack up a few more wins maybe fight/fail to get a WC spot which will drive attendance up which will cover his increased 2015 salary of $16MM which is the season Harvey comes back and the Mets compete for the NL East title.
If you rid yourself of Davis and Murphy and add Gonzalez,
you only add a net amount of $0.7M to your payroll.
Murphy forecast arb of $5.8MM
Davis forecast arb of $3.5MM
Nieuwenheis renew contract of $0.5M
Montero (minor league contract)
for
Carlos Gonzalez 2014 contract of $10.5MM
Net difference +$0.7MM
(I thought he was a flyball pitcher)
Montero has never surrendered more than 6 HRs across an entire season. Last year he surrendered only 4 HRs in 88 innings in Las Vegas. His 0.4 HR/9 rate was only bested by 1 starter on the Las Vegas squad (Giancarlo Alvarado)and by 3 SP's in the entire PCL (Alvarado, Jimmy Nelson, and Brian Sanches)
Cargo does make sense for the Mets but I think the offer above is too much for him. It think I makes a lot of sense for the Rockies - 1B is open and he could be a monster out there if he gets his game together. Kirk makes sense as a throw in. Ike, Murphy, and Montero is too much and doesn't give Colorado any salary relief in 2014. I would have interest in Pomeranz coming back as part of that deal, he is worth a gamble if the Rockies prefer DeGrom.
I don't think that's too much to give up for a solid allstar outfielder. He's not making $25M per year. I like Murphy but he's replaceable. Davis has to go. Montero's ceiling is still highly in question but that fact that he's now on the verge of being a top 50 prospect. I think this is almost exactly the kind of deal that Colorado could be looking for. They would be keeping Cuddyer in the OF instead of 1B. They already have Fowler. So they have Kirk and two other young OFs playing for 1 spot or they can sign a FA. If they trade CarGo then go sign someone like Cruz, you'd be adding Cruz, Murphy & Ike to an already pretty solid lineup. They just need more pitching help.
If they are looking for more salary relief than you could probably swap Ike & Murphy with Duda & Flores.
They might not even like any of Murphy, Ike, Flores, Duda or Montero. They might demand Gee & Puello. But I think from the Mets standpoint if you can move Murphy, Ike & Montero for Cargo, you pull the trigger in a heartbeat. You clear up your logjam at 2B and 1B, while moving your pitching prospect with the lowest ceiling for a power hitting outfielder.
I know that he hasn't given up HRs but I believe he gets more outs on fly balls than groundouts.
How about then taking out Tapia and Pomeranz?;
Montero, Murphy, Davis and DeGrom (or, say, Mazzoni) for CarGo.
Too much? We are talking a top flight OF'er who is on average a 4.0 to 5.0 WAR player with a peak of 5.9.
Murphy is a 1.5 to 2.0 WAR player
Davis is a 0.5 to 1.0 WAR player
Nieuwenheis adds 0 value
and Montero is expected to be a #3 at peak which generally adds 2.5 to 3.0 WAR a season.
On the surface the high end of the averages make it seem like a win for COlorado....but we need to remember that Montero could possibly be left out in the cold when it comes to the Mets future rotation (IMO it currently projects to be Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, Mejia). If that happens then he produces zero value to the Mets.
Yup. Teams don't trade for guys like Nieuwenheis. If this were the framework for a deal then the Mets would have to add a valuable arm - either a low minor guy with upside (Ynoa?) or a more mature arm that projects to be a major league piece (DeGrom, Mazzoni, Walter, Black, Edgin?).
Anyway, I don't see the Rockies going for Murphy - it seems they'd want a big win on the money side, which, as you point out, this trade is not.
Well it still ends up being a big win in terms of money in the future. Cargo earns $6MM more in '15, an additional $1MM in '16, and an additional $3MM in '17.
I do see the point though.
Can't find the data for this so I'm not sure.
Carlos Gonzales
27 years old outfielder
2011 - .295/.363/.526/.889, 26-HR, 92-RBI
2012 - .303/.371/.510/.881, 22-HR, 85-RBI
2013 - .302/.367/.591/.958, 26-HR, 70-RBI
Please... rip me off and make me trade BOTH Nieuwenhuis and deGrom :)
Is it me or do Kirk and Ike stink? Why, in a reality based world, would any team be interested in trading a top of the line outfielder for these guys?
Montero/Murphy make sense as part of a trade package. But then, the Mets lose one of their 2 proven bats if they trade Murphy and there's another hole to fill.
I just don't think Alderson or the Rockies can be thinking along these lines.
Who knows. I could be wrong.
Kirk is not a centerpiece of this deal he's a throw in so forget about him for a second.
In Ike Davis's defense, he did hit 32 HR's in 1 season. He would be a change of scenery candidate for the Rockies. With the right situation/coaching he could return to a .250 Avg, 40 HR guy at Coors.
Plus despite his poor play this season, Davis is generally regarded as an above average defensive 1B. A return to form version of Davis is EXACTLY what Colorado needs to replace Helton.
WHile I love murphy and think that he has improved defensively he is starting to get on the expensive side for a contact hitting below average defensive 2B. He's expected to net $5.8MM through Arbitration this off-season.
Montero, Murphy, Davis plus more prospects is a bit of overpaying for Cargo. IMO too pitching prospect, a doubles and clutch machine who plays an adequate 2nd base, 40 hr potential player who has had success in the majors at various points w. Above average defense plus prospects? Errr, no.
nieuwenheis is hardly a prospects....He's just a throw in to clear a 40 man spot. Davis NEEDS a change of scenery, he's just not good in NY. Murphy is the real loss here but I'm confident Flores can put up similar offensive numbers as Murphy.
nieuwenheis is hardly a prospects....He's just a throw in to clear a 40 man spot. Davis NEEDS a change of scenery, he's just not good in NY. Murphy is the real loss here but I'm confident Flores can put up similar offensive numbers as Murphy.
As for Montero.....there's no spot for him in the rotation. Trade what you have for what you don't have I say.
The Mets didnt get burned big time with Santana. He provided stellar pitching before he was hurt. If the team had insured the contract it would be a non-issue.
I wouldn't let any past history stop the Mets from adding a starter like Price...the only question is what it would cost.
Id still pitch my offer of Davis, Murphy, Gee, Montero, Puello, and a younger (a level) starter to try and nab both Colorado stars.
Mike, I guess Santana missing time in nearly every season and missing whole entire seasons isn't getting burned to you, but insurance or not, it sucks to me, Fred, and Jeff Wilpon.
Especially at 25 million per....
How can you even say that with a strait face? Was that a good long term contract? Hey it was the Mets fault so they burned themselves, but just cause he pitched good when he pitched doesn't make it successful.
Tulo isn't going anywhere without Syndergaard or Wheeler + additional pieces
Agreed....plus for some odd reason they seem more inclined to trade Cargo instead of Tulo....even though Tulo cost more and has been a larger injury risk.
Plus they just exercised De La Rosa's contract option for $11MM so I don't think they are trying to Shed much payroll.
I would assume because its easier to replace an outfield than the shortstop. Plus Tulo is Mr. Rockie.
- The Mets needed a #1 at the time and got Santana for practically nothing.
- For the first three years, Santana did what he was asked to do. By the time his injuries caught up to him (2011), that group of Mets was being dismantled.
- The main point is that the Mets chose not to insure Santana's contract as they had with Beltran's. If they had, insurance would have covered the bulk of Santana's money when he was injured.
This isn't getting burned by the Santana deal, it was getting burned by their own shortsightedness and it's no reason to not acquire another top pitcher.
Soto,
Don't get me wrong, I think Cargo would clearly improve the Mets. However, there is some risk here. First, he has a bad finger and is electing not to have surgery this offseason, so right off the bat 2014 can be iffy. Second, while the lines that Mack put up are impressive, they are Colorado lines. His career OPS is home .992/road .774. In Citifield he projects more towards the road OPS. I know Capt Kirk has no value, but Montero is a solid pitching prospect, regardless of what spot in the rotation. Gee and Niese both have experienced tears in their rotator cuffs and never logged bigtime innings. Mejia is always injured. The Mets had two starters drop this season along with TJ surgery. If Montero stays with the Mets, he will find himself in that starting rotation sooner or later. I think they could get Cargo for Davis, Montero, and an lower level guy like Ynoa. If the price is any higher than that, I'd rather overpay Beltran for two years and use the prospects to acquire someone else.
It's just an observation from having followed his box scores these last few seasons.
No way Colorado parts with one of the best players in the game, either Cargo or Tulo, for that package. Ike Davis has almost no trade value and Kirk is a AAAA player. Something like Syndergaard, Murph, Cecchini, a lower level prospect and Duda, maybe even more. And giving up Wheeler AND Niese? Two very good, controllable and control pitchers, one who shows star potential, for a guy who we could lose in a year if we don't meet his probably ludicrous requests? If we went through with these trades, we'd have more questions than answers.
Mack, back on 10/4 in a morning report comment I suggested a trade for Cargo involving Ike or Duda, Montero, and den Dekker. I think it would be a good trade for Colorado, but as I said then, I am still wary of Gonzalez's ability to hit at sea level. Consider the following away splits:
Career: .269/.324/.450/.774, 48 HR, 148 RBI vs. 77 HR & 271 RBI at home.
2011 - .252/.317/.440/.757, 10 HR, 32 RBI
2012 - .234/.301/.405/.706 9 HR, 27 RBI
then, incredibly in 2013 he had a monster away season:
2013 - .332/.381/.606/.987 14 HR, 28 RBI
I really wonder if Cargo is the right target, but I guess if we could get him for that package, I'd pull the trigger.
If I were the Mets I would make any of the above. Known of those players would be difficult to replace. Montero is good but he is not going to be a front line starter. A solid back of the rotation or middle starter. Murphy can be replaced by Young or Flores. Lucas replaces Davis. CarGo is a major piece. The only prospect I hold back is Syndergaard.
The Twins really wanted Fernando Martinez. They settled for Gomez. Only if we knew the future.
It would be a miserable trade for the Rockies but I' do the deal yesterday
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