This has been an extremely enjoyable Mets season and my cap is tipped to TC and the Buffalo Soldiers. None of us expected to be in the hunt this long.
That being said, there's no way in hell this team is going to jump over five teams and spring past the Braves for the playoff slot. Too many teams play each other too many games for all of this to happen. Someone has to win every night and the math just doesn't work here.
There's a little over two weeks left for the trade deadline, so... if the Mets aren't going to make the playoff... and there really is a cash flow problem here... now is the time to make some decisions.
Me?
1. I sign SS Jose Reyes. I have no problem paying his as much as this team was going to pay K-Rod next year. Work it out. He and David Wright are the face of the team and there still is time to build a team around them.
2. Move RF Carlos Beltran. If Sandy Alderson says 7-8 teams are interested than at least 4-5 are. Cut the best two-prospect deal you can for him. You need to wind up with two players here that will be at least on your 2013 25-man. Target outfielder, LHSP, and catcher.
3. Move Izzy... the only value he has left in baseball is as a 2011 reliever helping a pennant contender. You can get a decent prospect for him from St. Louis that would love to have him back for the push.
4. Move Tejada... Daniel Murphy has proven that you can't take his bat out of the game. Murphy will become the everyday second baseman once Ike Davis returns. Tejada has some trade value... now... and, if you sign Jose, there's no place for this kid to play.
5. Move Byrdak... he's not a major peg, but he has pitched well and a decent prospect could be obtained from someone making a playoff push.
6. Play Duda every day in RF... again, I'm working on the future here... let's find out if he can hold his own in Queens against all the pitchers. No outfielder is going to make the jump from the minors in 2011 and your best chance at a developed player here is either Matt den Dekker or Cory Vaughn in 2012, or someone you can trade for right now (cough, cough... Bryce Brentz...). Duda may be an affordable Adam Dunn type that can also play first base.
7. Play Bay every day in left field and shut the fuck up... you can't move this guy, so you have to play him until he gets out of this funk...
8. Make a decision who the two prospects will be in the K-Rod deal and sign them by August 1st. Get them acclimated into the system plus a month playing with a Mets uniform on. Pull off the Beltran trade first, then pick these two positionally to make sense for the future.
9. Trade Paulino... again, he's not a future Mets catcher and you can get mid-range prospect here.
10. Start saving up every penny you can scrape up for next year's big free agent... David Wright.
6 comments:
Great post. I agree with everything. Especially ttrading Beltran and playing Duda everyday. He obviously has a ton of raw power, which is a great commodity at Citifield. Hopefully, with the knowledge that he's the right fielder for the time being, he can relax and show that pop that he's showed the past two seasons in AAA. What this team needs is a cheap, power hitting outfielder who can compensate for the Bay debacle, which has become a worse signing then the Ollie and Castio signs. Holy shit, Jason Bay, what a fricking disaster. Only with the Mets can a team sign a bonafide power hitter, and end up with another Roberto Alamar situation, you can't make this crap up.
Mack, good stuff. I agree with everything except for #4. Personally, I don't see a reason to trade Tejada at this point since he's so young and costs nothing. If anything, he can just be a back-up middle infielder or AAA depth. Otherwise, I would say move Capuano to a team like the Pirates, Cardinals, Indians that can use some starting pitching depth and get a mid range prospect.
The Bay thing really upsets me. I followed this guy since the Mets first had him. I thought he was a genuine 30/11o guy and thought it was a great sign...
two years prior as a Met: 67-HRs, 220-RBI... two years AS a Met: 12-HR, 75-RBI...
did anyone hand him a cup before he was signed?
Closer:
I forgot about Capuano...
I have no problem with keeping Tejada. In that case, I'd play him at SS in Buffalo in 2012 while giving 2B to Josh Satin. Both would make great emergency backups.
I also didn't mention Dickey...
Not really feeling the "cup" theory, however Bay, with his swing, really needs to literally step to the plate. He stands two feet off the dish and there's no way to pull outside breaking balls for power with his top hand swing. Is the field in his head? All I know is that I watch Luis Castio pull a pitch into the second deck in left last year so I'm sure Bay has the pop to clear this fence. Yes, lets definatly keep tejada, trade Capuano, and not even think of moving RA Dickey who always keeps you in games, has the best knuckler with a speed variation of nearly 20mph, and is a real cheap and much needed starting pitcher who is signed through next season. At his price tag, your just not going to get that production during the offseason via free agency or a costly trade that would deplete a minor league system of much needed prospects. Hes a keeper.
I like Dickey and he's worth keeping around in 2012, which looks like a transition year.
Assuming Carrasco is dealt, your 2012 rotation would be Santana, Niese, Pelfrey, Dickey, and Gee, pending who the Mets get in trades this month.
Also, assuming everybody heals, the 2013 rotation of Santana, Niese, Harvey, Mejia, and Familia looks pretty exciting.
You have to play Bay and solve RF.
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