Moving On Without Reyes and Wright - PART 2

Part 1 - http://tinyurl.com/FutureMetsP1

So, the 2012 season has begun. In Part 1, I talked about the offseason moves made in preparation for this year, including letting Jose Reyes leave and trading David Wright to Colorado.

The biggest focus for the team has been and is investing in as much young talent as possible. Assuming the moves in Part 1 have been made, the Mets would have high profile prospects Drew Pomeranz, Matt Harvey, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Yasmani Grandal, Ryan Kalish, Reese Havens, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and Brad Holt all at AAA Buffalo. Newly-acquired Nolan Arenado and Zach Wheeler would start the year at AA Binghamton.

I expect that Pomeranz and Kalish would be the first two promoted as both have already played in the majors and both help to fill areas of serious need for the Mets. After that, it’s anyone’s guess as to what prospects will be ready and when. What I do believe will happen is that Pomeranz, Harvey, and Familia will all be ready to pitch in the major league rotation at some point next year, giving the Mets an abundance of pitching. I think Mejia will see time in NYC next year, but with his injury will be relegated to the pen while his arm gets healthy.

I’m counting on Reese Havens fulfilling his potential and becoming the starting 2B at some point next summer, moving Justin Turner to the bench. Ditto for Grandal replacing Josh Thole. Kalish and Nieuwenhuis are both wild cards given their injuries in 2011. I’m going to be optimistic here and say both will be healthy in the spring and both ready for a call-up mid-season. As mentioned above, Kalish gets the nod first. Finally, of the prospects I mentioned above I think Brad Holt will be up last, only getting the call towards the end of the year. I expect him to take almost all of 2012 to gain confidence in AAA. He has the talent but is new to the bullpen. He seemed to flourish last year when moved to relief, I just would not rush him to the majors. By the end of 2012 though, I think Holt, Mejia, and Brothers could all be in the bullpen together and potentially giving the Mets their own version of the 1990 Reds Nasty Boys.

Ike Davis should continue his development into a top tier 1B, providing an outstanding glove and a power bat. I expect Murphy to play average defense at 3B but also continue his hitting success. Ruben Tejada will be under a lot of scrutiny replacing Jose Reyes. My hope is that the fans realize that he is not Jose and let him be what he is. He’ll provide good defense (some might argue better than Jose), continue hitting for a decent average, get on base well, and see his power improve slightly. He'll run well but not steal bases. On Lucas Duda, I’ve written about him previously (http://tinyurl.com/dudafans) and to reiterate, I think he will continue hitting and become a .900 OPS, 30-HR, 100 RBI middle-of-the-order bat. I think his defense in the OF will suffer and he will prove to be best-suited for 1B for the long-term.

If at the deadline the Mets are out of contention and staring up at Philly, Atlanta, et. al., the team would be wise to trade Bronson Arroyo and try and rid themselves of Johan Santana and Jason Bay. With the aforementioned pitching prospects making their way up the ranks, Arroyo is an obvious choice to be dealt to a contender. Moving Santana and Bay of course assumes that both are healthy (especially Johan) and performing closer to their career norms. Given the salary owed both and their advanced age (in baseball terms at least) neither figure to be part of the next Mets playoff push. To move them, the team will likely have to get creative and eat salary. It’s even possible that assuming large portions of both contracts could net the Mets at least 2 useful prospects (1 for each)…not necessarily foundation pieces, but commodities that could prove useful as offseason trade bait to sweeten other deals.

The way to get the salary relief needed from removing Bay and Santana from the rolls is to look to contenders looking for veterans to help in a playoff run who want them cheaply. To do this, I would first offer to pay the remaining portions of their 2012 salaries. This money is already a sunk cost and I don’t see how a team would acquire either and pay them for the rest of ’12 AND ’13. Assuming 2 months remaining in the season at the time of a trade, what this means for the Mets is eating about 13.3M (Bay 5.3 + Santana 8) for 2012. It’s less than they took on in cutting Perez and Castillo in 2011. By doing this, the Mets would be in a position to ask for decent talent in return. As both are owed a total of 41.5M for 2013, the Mets can offer to take on a portion of that as well. I would offer to pay half (20.75) under the condition that these payments be made over 2 years – 2013 and 2014.

The acquiring teams might be more likely to accept such terms if the Mets increased the amount paid while taking into consideration the present value of the dollars involved as well as the fact that they (and not the Mets) would be on the hook for buying out the 2014 options on each player. For the sake of argument, let’s round the total number up to 24M, or 12M per year in 2013 and 2014 each paid to move on from Bay and Santana a year and a half early.

This might seem like a lot, but with a greatly reduced payroll in 2013 and 2014 (more on this in Part 3), $12M per year for the flexibility that comes with almost $30M in 2013 salary relief will seem like a bargain. For the teams acquiring them, Jason Bay at $8M and Santana for under $13M are a lot more attractive than at their current deals. Teams on the brink of winning could potentially be getting a bargain in adding these all-star talents ‘on the cheap’. On the flip side, if the Mets are actually in the race in 2012 and Bay and Santana are contributing, there is no harm in holding onto them and then attempting to deal them under similar conditions next offseason. I would still deal Arroyo, however.

I would expect the lineup in September to feature –

Ca – Grandal

1B – Davis

2B – Havens

3B – Murphy

SS – Tejada

OF – Kalish

OF – Nieuwenhuis/Pagan

OF – Duda

SP1 – Dickey

SP2 – Niese

SP3 – Pomeranz

SP4 – Harvey

SP5 – Familia

With Mejia recovering from injury, I would only expect him to appear out of the bullpen for the 2012 Mets. As mentioned earlier, I would also expect Holt to join Mejia and Brothers in the pen. A displaced Dillon Gee could also prove to be a very valuable reliever. You can see the team starting to come together at this point, although not complete. Arenado and Wheeler could both be September call-ups, I just don’t think they’ll see much regular playing time until 2013.

Heading into 2012, the Mets will have a ‘leaner’ approach. Although familiar names are leaving in this scenario, the development of the team’s young (and potential core) players will give fans excitement and reason to root for the Mets. When the season ends and the Mets are looking at their most pivotal offseason in years, they will be well-positioned with a solid young core to build around, only a few positional holes left to fill, and A LOT of money to spend.

In the final installment, I’ll go over the potential 2012-13 offseason moves and bring the entire picture into focus, taking a look at what the 2013 (and beyond) Mets could look like.