10/22/11

Baseball: - The 2011 LAD, Robot Umpires, David Freese, Mickey Mantle, Nate McLouth


As a lifelong Dodger fan I can tell you that the beating of Brian Stow (who continues to recover slowly) on Opening Day, the discovery that Frank and Jamie McCourt have stripped the Dodgers of liquidity in support of their lavish lifestyles and watching Dodger Stadium on TV be less than half full while protests occur on the streets leading into the parking lot, and the lackluster play for a good part of the season were particularly distressing. Yet the season of Kemp and Kershaw and the emergence of some young talent do give a flicker of hope to the Dodgers in 2012. The pitching staff (under the unheralded but very effective leadership of pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, the lone hold over from Joe Torre’s tenure) looks promising, and the Dodgers offensive core has one more year under contractual control (Ethier, Kemp and Loney all are eligible for free agency after 2012). With Gordon coming and a return to health of Uribe, the Dodgers are one really big bat (Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols how you feel about LA?) from bouncing back into contention in the NL West. But all that rests on how soon the ownership situation gets worked out. Hey we are talking about LA – land of Hollywood, Disneyland, etc. where the dreams are big and hope springs eternal…right? http://baseballreflections.com/2011/10/17/reflections-on-the-dodgers-la-blues-continue

Baseball fans will undoubtedly be familiar with K Zone. Like the computer-generated first down line displayed on television screens during NFL football games, baseball’s K Zone serves as a graphic indicator of the strike zone. During baseball games K Zone is paired with a system called PITCHf/x that uses three cameras to track the ball from the moment it leaves the pitcher’s hand to the time it crosses home plate. Data from the cameras are sent to a central pitch tracking system that calculates the ball’s speed, location, and trajectory. The pitch data can be streamed and its trajectory tracked in realtime on television. PITCHf/x’s tracking is accurate to within a quarter of an inch, so combining it with K Zone should give you the means for a rigorous pitch calling system far superior and consistent than human umpires. - http://singularityhub.com/2011/10/20/is-it-time-for-professional-baseball-to-adopt-robot-umpires

Along with other analysts, I’ve touted Freese based on the strength of his .307/.384/.531 minor-league line, which included 101 doubles and 68 homers in 1675 plate appearances, along with a 9.7 walk rate and 19.5 strikeout rate. But Freese’s development has been frozen by a series of unfortunate events—er, surgeries: left heel debridement in 2009; tendon reconstruction on his right ankle and left ankle debridement in 2010; and this season’s broken left hand. In between those stints on the operating table, Freese hit .298/.354/.429 in 604 plate appearances, maintaining a 7.1 walk rate and 21.1 strikeout rate that’s only slightly lower than his minor-league rates. Pessimists would remind you that Freese has yet to play more than 97 games or collect more than 363 plate appearances in a single season, while optimists would point out that he’s increased his playing time each year. Freese’s postseason explosion, along with his production when healthy, shows his talent as a solid and occasionally spectacular third baseman, but staying healthy is a skill, and playing time is crucial in fantasy. His decent upside makes him a keeper in deeper leagues, but his fragility makes him iffy in shallower leagues, where you want a better bet with a higher ceiling. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15342

Eighty years ago today, one of the most famous baseball players of all-time was born, Mickey Mantle. He’s a Hall of Fame batter named after a Hall of Fame batter. His dad was a big fan of A’s catcher Mickey Cochrane. I have nothing particularly insightful to say about Mantle’s career, so I won’t even try. What is striking is how young he was when he died, just 63 years old. His dad died at a much younger age, and Mantle rather famously lived wild and hard in his day, so it’s not really surprising that he died so young. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/mickey-mantles-80th-birthday

Nate McLouth – a former Pirate All-Star – was an unmitigated disaster after being acquired by the Braves in the middle of the 2009 season. He was injured, ineffective, or both for the entirety of the 2010 and 2011. After posting good offensive numbers in 2007 (.364 wOBA, .201 ISO) and 2008 (.369 wOBA, .221), McLouth’s power stroke did not make the move to Altanta. He had an acceptable .342 wOBA in 84 games with the 2009 Braves, but the collapse of his power – ISO .214 before the trade, .162 after – was not a fluke. His 2010 (.283 wOBA, .132 ISO) and 2011 (.306 wOBA, .105 ISO) seasons were absolutely dreadful. Never a standout with the glove, McLouth’s defensive struggles continued in Atlanta as he “produced” a -25.9 UZR over the past two seasons, despite only playing an average of 83 games per season. At 30 years old, McLouth is the second youngest player in this grouping, but all signs point to his premature decline being permanent. His ground ball percentage has increased from 30.8% in 2007 to 47.4% in 2011. His BABIP rebounded from a horrid .221 in 2010 to .270 in 2011, which is close to his career average of .276, but his continued inability to drive the baseball with consistency suggests he may be done. His age and past productivity probably makes him worth a gamble as a fourth outfielder, but at this stage he cannot be counted on as an everyday player. - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-market-center-field

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