11/19/18

Tom Brennan - Should the Mets Trade Noah Syndergaard?

20 comments

Tom Brennan - Should the Mets Trade Noah Syndergaard?


In this next episode of the Netflix sensation, The Franchise That Can't Shoot Straight, we now here that the Mets are considering a trade of Noah Syndergaard for San Diego prospects.  Jack Bauer is the new GM.  Would he do it?

Would I do it?  Not unless I was completely blown out of the water with Juan Soto-type prospects (notice the plural nature of the verb I used).

Syndergaard is 37-23, 2.93 in his career, and has pitched really well in the post season.  He is young and under the Mets' control for years to come.

But, when trading any player, the player's ceiling needs to be kept firmly in mind.

Tom Seaver - his ceiling was extremely clear when traded.  That trade was a baffler, and disastrous for the Mets.

Nolan Ryan - his career trajectory when traded was a bit murky, but his POTENTIAL ceiling was enormous - and that trade proved to be an equally enormous mistake.

Some players could be overachievers and be 37-23 (picture a Jason Vargas 25 year old type being 37-23), and you as the owner might want to take your profits and trade the guy.

Syndergaard is not that guy.

He has super-elite raw (and refined) talent, similar to Seaver and Ryan.  His potential ceiling is....Hall of Fame.

So...you don't trade him unless completely blown away, or unless you feel he is going to continue to be injury-prone.

While he missed 80% of his starts in 2017 and 20% of them in 2018, I do not see that he has to be injury-prone.  I'd not be surprised to see him average 30+ starts over the next 5 years.

Ryan missed some starts early in his Mets career, and then turned into one of the most durable pitchers in major league history.

I am betting that Syndergaard's injury history is largely behind him.  And that he is about to become Justin Verlander II.  And, as already noted, he does not wilt in the playoffs, he excels.

Having a healthy deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Matz in 2019 will put sheer dread in the hearts of opponents.

So - don't trade Thor - unless the haul is far too good to be true.

20 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

The package I'd ask for would include outfielder Franmil Reyes (16 HRs and .280 in half a season last year), Francisco Mejia, Logan Allen and Mackenzie Gore. Fernando Tatis, Jr. is highly desirable, but between Rosario and Gimenez you seem to be set at SS.

bgreg98180 said...

Ideally, I would prefer keeping all of the Mets starters and add 2 mid 20 year old all-star caliber offensive players.

If the Mets choose not to follow this path, I am fully against adding 30+ year old players.

In that case I would prefer cashing in the pitching talent for the next wave of early 20 yr old All-Star potential talent

Mack Ade said...

The thoughts of trading this guy should be buried.

We have to start somewhere building a dynasty. Resigning Syndergaard, Wheeler, and deGrom through 2021 (or 2022) would be a good way to begin this process.

Zozo said...

I have no problem trading Thor if the package is right and the Mets spend on one of the free agents to replace him.
I feel it’s easier to get free agent pitchers to play at Citifield than it is to get hitters. Since it’s a pitchers park, that’s why i wouldn’t mind trading for young hitters.

Reese i would stay away from Franmill Reyes, he seems like a DH to me.

Mack Ade said...

I want to watch what our new GM does closely during this off season.

A lot of teams with deep pipeline talent are going to try and convince him to carve off the white meat for them from the Mets turkey.

If they do, I will consider the Mets will be the turkey again.

Reese Kaplan said...

My El Paso bias is showing. Franmil Reyes was a beast here for the Chihuahuas.

bgreg98180 said...

Ideally I fully agree, but that should require the Mets to build their best possible team for the next 3-5 years.

Something that many people keep insisting is not going to happen this year

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, I am very much against quality-for-quantity trades like the Seaver trade, unless there is little doubt we will get 2 or 3 potential future All Stars in the trade. I know the Braves succeeded in this approach with a far lesser talent, Shelby Miller, a few years ago. If we ever did trade Thor (I am not in favor of that now) my minimum would be 2 or 3 future All Star caliber guys - meaning, let's say, 2 to 3 Conforto-quality (or better) prospects. Or forget it.

Teams that make the World Series usually have superstar level talent, not a bunch of good players. I don't want the Mets to be competitive -I want a World Series win. I think we have a good shot at that with Jake, Thor, and Zach heading the rotation.

Mike Freire said...

For the same reasons that he would command a potential haul of prospects, the Mets should keep him! He is young, talented and under team control for several more years. You build around players like that, as opposed to dealing them for players that you hope become as good as Noah already is.

IF I am dealing a starter, I am selling high on Zack Wheeler (but even that would be tough).



bill metsiac said...

I'm with you, Tom. If we were deeper in MnL talent, I would be in favor of trading some to GET established talent. But not the other way around. I remember the many prospects we traded for/away in the past who never made a ML mark.

bill metsiac said...

Drop the "again" here, Mack. Whatever moves the new Sheriff in town makes will be on a new, clean slate.

Unknown said...

Very likely SD would not offer up Tatis for even Degrom given he's likely going to be the Acuna for 2019. I'd ask for a high ceiling arm (Gore), Hedges,
bullpen arm, Reyes + another prospect.

Viper said...

Mets fans are never happy.

The one good thing we have is the rotation, which automatically means it must be broken apart or at least, the three stooges and their "agent" must annoy the heck out of us Vipers by suggesting they would be open to trading Syndergaard.

You see, happiness and being a Mets fan must always be at opposing ends.

How, in the bizzaro world the Mets live in, does it make sense to trade a 26 year old ace with 3 years left of control in order to sign another, more expensive replacement pitcher and hope the return in prospects will be worth it?

Every year after the season, Mets fans hope for the best, for a sign that the organization has turned the corner only to find out that it is a vicious circle with no end. Is like a dog chasing its tail.

Well, at least is a short week and I can start drinking on Wednesday. Who knows what "turkey" the Mets will get us.

Reese Kaplan said...

Wild Turkey, if we're lucky, my friend.

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, it only makes sense if they have reason to be convinced Thor will continue to get hurt a lot. Otherwise,trading him makes no sense. I agree...Mets might have baseball's top rotation. Why on earth break it up?

That Adam Smith said...

It would take a ridiculous package for me to even consider trading Syndergaard. I believe that the Thor we saw at the end of the ‘18 season is much more what we can expect going forward than a lot of what we saw (and didn’t see) in ‘17 and much of ‘18. He seems, post major injury, to be on the cusp of living up to his tremendous potential, and it would be a knife in the heart of this franchise if he became that elsewhere. This team has one strength, and one strength only... deGrom, Wheeler, and Syndergaard. Build around that. Don’t weaken it.

bgreg98180 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bgreg98180 said...

But,
What if the team refuses to build around the pitchers with comparable offensive talent?
(Keep in mind much of that talent would need to come through free agency since there are not a lot of prospect trade chips in the Mets system capable of acquiring such talent)

At least 1 or 2 All-Star offensive caliber players are needed to lead a team deep into the playoffs

Tom Brennan said...

Adam, I completely agree with you, hence my comparison to Verlander. Look him up. He went from very good, like Noah now, to great at around Noah's current age. Thor is Drysdale to Jake's Koufax. You keep Drysdale. (Except Drysdale hit better, Noah! Consider that a challenge, sir!)

Bob, I also couldn't agree more. It is time to spend on free agents that can PLAY.

Anonymous said...

I'll Try to Answer a Few Questions...

You don't mess with what works. The old adage "If it ain't broken then do not try to fix it" holds true here. You cannot find a better 2 or 3 starter anywhere in MLB than Noah Syndergaard.

You have three top shelf starters already in-place here with deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler. Steven Matz can be the "fifth starter" after adding in one more new starter the four spot. If you think Steven is a 1-4 starter you are wrong based solely upon his own recent history and performance. Steven is a five starter right now in MLB. Although this could change, accept this fact.

So we can aptly deduce that the NY Mets need a four starter more added in here. I prefer a left-hander because Matz was so unsure in his 2018 starts. The lefty's name I am thinking of is free agent Patrick Corbin, and his statistics indicate that he is probably perfect for this role. Corbin made just over $7.0 in 2019, which is most reasonable for what he brings to the table. He is 29 years old at current, so a 3-4 year signing is very doable with this. With this idea, the 2019 NY Mets rotation will be the very best in MLB.

Now the Hitting and Offense...

It looks like the 2019 NY Mets will add in power batter Peter Alonso for first base, which is terrific. However, they need added in one more power batter just in case Yoenis Cespedes cannot make it back with the foot operations he had in 2018. Without Cespedes the Mets could use Jay Bruce as an everyday left fielder.

The Mets desperately need catching. Travis d'Arnaud is good, but a walking MASH Unit casualty year after year. To count on Travis to stay healthy is not wise.

My idea here would be to forget about any free agent catchers (they are not that good) or Miami's JT Realmuto, although JT is probably one of the top three catchers currently in MLB. I just feel that his asking price would be way too high for the Mets and could endanger Mets stronger player positions that they will need in 2019. It would be a mistake.

The Padres need starting pitching, pitchers with experience at the MLB level in other words. They have a sleuth of unproven rookie starters vying to make their 2019 roster and a bad rotation carryover from 2018. Thus, I would offer up something like a package of Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Corey Oswalt, and 1B Dominic Smith for Padres catchers Austin Allen (age 24, has HR power, MiLB) and Brett Nicholas (age 30, AAA 2018 numbers are .291/16/83 RBI) and 24 year old 2018 rookie righty reliever Trey Wingenter. Something along these lines.

Reasoning...

Keeping Noah Syndergaard a NY Met is crucial for the NY Mets success in 2019, and adding to the rotation a really good lefty starter in Patrick Corbin imperative. The Mets probably would not be able to land catcher/3B Francisco Mejia to start at catcher here in 2019 (although definitely worth a discussion for the Mets new GM) with this same package. But Austin Allen (age 24) does show very worthwhile offensive power and skill set. If the Mets wanted to add in insurance for the catcher position right now (with d'Arnaud) while they finish out Austin Allen's development which won't take long, then Brett Nicholas (age 30) is the right way to go here. I think Austin Allen will be major, and I seriously doubt that San Diego would make Francisco Mejia available to any other team.

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