12/5/19

Mike Freire - Beware Second Generation Contracts and Other Wheeler Musings


¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 


Well, the expected departure of "The Enigma" (Zack Wheeler) has happened and he ended up defecting to one of our divisional rivals just south of us.  No, not the Braves, but the Phillies!  I am not sure that many folks saw that coming.  His departure?  Sure.  The destination?  Not so much.

With that said, I have a bunch of thoughts running through my thick skull and I would like to present them to each of you in a "stream of consciousness" style of presentation.  That probably sounds a bit unorthodox and exciting, but it is the offseason, right?  Oh and I promise to keep this one in bounds, Mack!

1.   Zack Wheeler just signed a five year contract for 118 million dollars with the Phillies and every last cent is guaranteed!  For those of you scoring at home, that averages out to 23.6 million dollars per year.  That puts Zack in the top 23 salaries in all of baseball (for now) and it also makes him the 9th highest paid starting pitcher (for now).

2.  Zack's salary is still just a bit behind Robinson Cano's 25 million dollars per year.  OK, so I am not sure where that ugly thought came from.  Oh and he is also well behind Yoenis Cespedes' 29.5 million dollar per year contract for 2020....again, I should probably leave this one alone.

3.  How in the heck is Zack, arguably an above average #3 starter, getting paid like an ace?  Could it be that the Phillies front office is on the proverbial "hot seat" and they are a bit desperate? I think so. Desperation makes folks do questionable things now and again.

4.  Losing Zack does not make the Mets a better team, but we also don't know who his replacement will ultimately be.  Despite the overpayment, the Phillies got better today and likely closed a good portion of the five game gap between the two clubs, in the process.

5.  Second generation contracts rarely work out in the long run (see item #2 for some proof), because a team is paying a player as much for what they have done as they are for the player's potential during the contract.  Zack is 29 years old and he also has a bit of an injury history, in case you haven't heard.

6.  Statistically, Zack has been a league average pitcher when he has been on the hill.  That includes an elevated WHIP (i.e. lots of baserunners) and high pitch counts more often then not.  How do you think that will play out with a majority of his games in a "band box" for a stadium?

7.  On that topic, Citi Field had Park Rating of 0.891 and Home Run rating of 1.000 (lower is better, while 1.000 is the statistical average for the calculation) in 2019.  Citizens Bank Park has a rating of 1.047 and a Home Run rating of 1.170!  Couple these numbers with Zack's propensity to put a lot of baserunners on base and well......the Phillies might regret that 23.5 million per year deal before all is said and done.

8.  Zack has averaged 25 starts per year over the five years that he has been available to pitch (he has actually been in the major leagues for seven years, but two of them were wiped out due to injury).   A normal season for a starting pitcher is roughly 32 starts, so he has only pitched 78% of the time or even less if you add in the two years he missed.  Oh yeah, he also missed a couple starts last year during our playoff drive with shoulder fatigue, right?

9.  I will likely get accused of "cherry picking" statistics, but what do you call it when the media is fixated only on Zack's last two years?  He has been better of late, but he is still who he is and you cannot completely ignore his history (which will not get better as he ages, unless he is taking Tom Brady supplements).

10. Interesting that Zack was viewed as inconsistent and injury prone as a Met, yet he has somehow transformed into Max Scherzer now that the Phillies picked him up.  This is the same guy that has been average at best and wasn't worth more then a decent prospect at the last trade deadline.  Now?  He is the Phillies savior and worth an ace level contract.  This should be fun to watch, in my opinion (especially in Philadelphia).

11. Early advice for Mets' hitters in 2020 when they face Zack.  Take a few pitches and make him throw enough strikes to get you out!

In closing, it probably seems like I don't care for Zack and that is mostly true, I guess.  For some reason, he has always been a bit annoying to watch.....likely due to his control issues and his four inning outings that take up 110 pitches that took place at the worst possible time.

I also appreciate the fact that he wore the Mets' uniform for so long and that he did give his all for the team when he was available (which was a bit more often then not).  It is the Mets' loss when it comes to sheer talent, but not so much when you also factor in the ridiculous salary.  There are still plenty of solid veterans that can be signed to fill out the rotation and at a much more realistic number.  Heck, it gives Brodie something to do at the Winter Meetings, after all.

Good luck, Zack......you are going to need it with THAT fan base.




9 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Great post.

My guess is the Phils will regret this one.

Reese Kaplan said...

Ironically the man that brought Wheeler to the Mets, Carlos Beltran, himself inked a $119 million contract (though his was over 7 years, not 5).

Gary Seagren said...

Jake Marisnick....really? I really thought Pillar would be perfect but I guess Brodie's already going cheap as I now wonder if his miserable off season last year is catching up to him. Not a good sign

Gary Seagren said...

Mack I agree but at least the Phils are playing this like they want to win. I'm not sure we even have a plan ...anyone here got a clue?

Mike Freire said...

I am a bit skeptical, regarding the plan...........but, there are a lot of players available and the offseason is still pretty young so there
is hope.

I am going to reserve judgement until we get closer to ST.

Oh and Marisnick (or however the heck you spell his name), is a nice add IF they see him as a platoon player in CF and as overall depth in the OF. If they are hoping he is the answer in CF for 150+ games then we may be a bit underwhelmed. At least he can catch the ball, right?

Gary Seagren said...

On the Cohen front I think the N.Y.Post headline says it all: Mogul near $2.6B deal to buy Mets from woeful Wilpons couldn't have put it better myself.

Tom Brennan said...

Mike, he sure wishes his name was spelled Maris-Nick. I can give you 61 reasons why.

Not having Wheeler, I am disappointed we did not get Cole Hamels. Five years for Zack, but the Braves did this with Cole: The Atlanta Braves have signed free-agent pitcher Cole Hamels to a one-year deal worth $18 million, the team announced Wednesday afternoon. Hamels, who turns 36 later this month, finished the 2019 season with a 7-7 record and a 3.81 ERA in 27 starts (141 2/3 innings) for the Cubs.

One year. Finite. If Zack stubs his toe next May, 5 years could see infinite.

After 1 year, one or more of the next generation (Szapucki, Humphreys, Megill, Smith, etc.) should have been ready to step into the rotation.

Dallas said...

Wheeler needed to be extended last year. The problem as Tim Britton of the Athletic put it is that the Mets don't try to operate efficiently like a smaller market team but don't want to spend like a bigger market team. I don't advocate the Mets signing wheeler for $118 million but they probably could have had him for 70-80 if they had signed him sooner. The Mets wasted $30+ million on redundant positions last year (Lowrie, Cano) which blocked their ability to extend Wheeler.

You see teams like the Braves locking up their core talent on the cheap giving them flexibility in the future. The Mets really do need Cohen because their players are going to get expensive quickly and the upper minors arent exactly ready to infuse cheap talent to replace anyone. Conforto, Syndergaard, Stroman, Matz, Lugo are all going to be expensive quickly. If they don't take care of Syndergaard now he is going to get what Wheeler got or more.

Tom Brennan said...

Dallas, exactly right