12/6/19

Reese Kaplan -- Rightsizing the Roster: Moving Bad Contracts



A few places have been reporting this week that the Mets are shopping a couple of their bad contracts in Jed Lowrie and Jeurys Familia.  They could throw Yoenis Cespedes into that mix as well as Robinson Cano.  There are problems moving each of them, of course.  Lowrie needs to show he’s healthy.  Familia needs to show last year was an aberration.  Cespedes has to show he’s alive and not in need of a scooter like they have on hand at Walmart for disabled customers.  Cano is probably the least likely to go consider his comeback performance in the last 1/3 of the season. 

In terms of dollars, there’s a lot being squandered here.  Lowrie is $11.5 million.  Familia is on the hook for two more years at a total of $29.4 million.  Cespedes will cost $29.5 million.  Cano is worth $96 million (or $76 if you factor in the $20 million that came over from Seattle in the deal). 

One strategy parlayed was to make a team take both Lowrie and Familia by sweetening the deal with a Dom Smith or J.D. Davis, neither of whom have a clear role on this team and whose low cost would make swallowing the bitter pills of the less-than-dynamic duo a bit more palatable.  Yes, that is one way to go.   In this case you’re looking primarily for salary relief, so the returns would likely be minor league prospects, thus opening up a little more payroll flexibility.  The theory here is replenishing the weak farm system and gaining some money to spend on mid-tier free agent options or trade candidates with payroll obligations (all yet to be identified).


Another would be a swap of bad contracts, fulfilling needs on this team through that route with the money more-or-less balancing out.  In this case you might look to a team in need of a reliever and infielder who might have a similar bad contract for a centerfielder, reliever, backup catcher and/or 5th starter. 


An example of the latter would be to approach the Colorado Rockies about Ian Desmond who has played centerfield for them.  They’re on the hook for a minimum of $25 million for 2020, 2021 and a 2022 buyout.  They have reliever Wade Davis slated to earn $17 million with a $1 million buyout if he does not finish 30 games.  He had a horrific season but was among the very best with three straight All Star appearances prior to landing in the pitching hell of Colorado.  The same can be said of Bryan Shaw who was a 3.13 setup guy thriving in Cleveland who does not appreciate the thin air in Denver.  He is owed $18 million over the next two years (his option all but certain to kick in for the 2021 season).  Then there’s lefty Jake McGhee.  Prior to the last two years he was money in the bank with a 3.15 career ERA and a 1.110 WHIP.  Two of those eight years were in Colorado (though one was pretty bad).  Then the last two seasons he’s been even worse.  However, at a $9.5 million salary for 2020 and an option only kicking in if he exceeds 74 appearances, he would carry the least financial obligation.  The $2 million buyout would exist if he falters in New York or he would cost $9 million for 2022.   With Daniel Murphy’s health and in his final year (if they choose to renew his option), a low cost future player there like Dom Smith or J.D. Davis would probably be most interesting to them. 

So let’s play with the numbers.  Suppose they took both Familia and Lowrie.  That’s $40.9 million of salary obligation right there.  The Mets took back Ian Desmond $25 million) and Wade Davis to be a setup guy for Edwin Diaz.  That ensures he does not fulfill the automatic option kicking in.  That’s another $18 million or a total of $43.  That’s almost a wash.  You don’t like Davis?  How about Shaw?  The numbers would be exactly the same.  If you took McGhee, then the Mets come out ahead salary-wise and you might have to even it up with a prospect (hopefully not named Smith or Davis). 


The same exercise could go on with the Milwaukee Brewers who have Lorenzo Cain on the books for another $51 million for the next three years.  He would solve the CF problem for sure, but it would likely take more than the $40.9 million of Lowrie and Familia to pry him loose.  There’s been a lot of banter about Hader and he would surely provide some insurance against another Diaz meltdown.  However, adding Hader to the mix would mean the Mets would have to pony up a lot more such as J.D. Davis or Dom Smith and perhaps a pitcher like David Peterson.  With Thomas Szapucki on the mend, I could live with that.  Franklyn Kilome would be another palatable option to me but coming off TJS they may not want him until he’s proven to be fully healthy.  The Brewers would save over $10 million in salary obligation, get Lowrie to play 3B, newly acquired 22-year old Luis Urias (.308 career hitter in minors) to play his natural position of SS in place of weak hitting Orlando Arcia, Familia in the pen and a good hitting 1st baseman where currently they have no one penciled in at all.  In addition, they would get a wildcard pitcher. The Mets would get a premium centerfielder for the next three years, and a social media headcase All Star in the pen.  Who would blink?

Do these approaches make sense? This suggestion is not to limit it to just with these two teams as possibilities, but you see the idea of swapping of financial obligations for pieces that are better fits.

8 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, seems pretty brilliant to me - or should I call you GM Reese?

Obviously, the wild cards that the Mets can read better than we can are: how much of a bounce back do they expect from Jed, Yo, Jay Reese, and Diaz.

If, despite Yo's BP video, no one really believes he can actually play major league ball anymore, including the insurance company, the $$ numbers in your analysis change. Same for Jed, who we all think will be back, but who really knows.

If Familia's problem last year was his shoulder, but they are confident he will be the 2018 version of Familia with off season rest and rehab, that changes things - you might still think he is worth the remaining $$.

Simply, the Mets know these answers better than our educated speculations. But your scenarios might certainly happen.

Mack Ade said...

I await our new leader and anticipate him handling old contract the same way he did with old failed investments he made... Write them off.

This could come in steps none of which would include trading any of our core or chips.

DFA them all.

Wait and see if any offers come back.

If not pay them off and write them off the books.

John From Albany said...

I like the Lorenzo Cain idea better than the Rockies idea. Lorenzo had a big drop off last year but is still an upgrade in Center (of course with Jake Marisnick - we are all set in Center, right?)

I would be leary to add Ian Desmond to play center.

In 2019, based on DRS, the Mets had the third worst fielding Center Field in the majors, with a -14 DRS. Only the Rockies with -27 and the Tigers -18 had worse.

Dallas said...

I'm not sure you can DFA any of these guys until you get to Spring training and see what they have.

Cespedes was clearly limping out of the batters box in that video that went online. He is probably the least likely to contribute. I see no reason why Lowrie, Diaz, Familia could not have bounce back productive years. Lowrie may have been a starter if he had stayed healthy but has to deal with being a potentially solid bench piece.

I do think at some point Cano will have to be DFA'd. I assume the leash will get shorter and shorter. Even if he hits like he did in the 2nd half (.880 OPS) in minimal ABs (150) do we really expect him to be much better at age 37? His defense was atrocious as well. The most he can hope for is the DH coming to the NL to salvage the last 2 years of his contract. The main point is he could be an easy path to upgrade in the near future from both a defensive and offensive position and I just hope his albatross contract does not deter them from making the right decisions. I really think CF, C, 2B are our weakest positions with most potential to upgrade over the next two years. Signing a Betts next offseason is a dream that may not be so far from reality anymore depending on how this Cohen thing goes....

Mike Freire said...

Excellent idea, Reese.

I like the Rockies proposal a bit more, but it would be a way to adjust the roster
without killing the farm system or breaking the bank.

I think Cain would be a better choice in CF........perhaps just him and a lesser package
from the Mets?

Reese Kaplan said...

I wasn't married to either of these thoughts. They were merely there to illustrate how to get creative in moving bad contracts for bad contracts to give both ballclubs involved a chance at improving.

Eddie from Corona said...

Reese Your a Genius
But forget the players ... make the trade that has the shortest years remaining... take the hit as early as possible so all the money can be freed up for the new regime...

Hopefully for Betts to lead us like Beltran did when we acquired him...

Gary Seagren said...

Look I know it's still to early for the "Cohen effect" to really change things but if we really want to win this thing sign Rendon and Strasburg and add to BP and then were ready to really compete. Hey I can at least dream now and maybe soon it WILL be a reality.