12/5/19

Tom Brennan - MY TOP 25 METS PROSPECTS VS. MLB PIPELINE TOP 30

6 comments

I like to compare the MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects to my Mets Prospect Top 25, to see where I converged with them and where I differed. (Note: I tend to lean towards performance over pure theoretical potential).

Who's right?  

I think I am, but you be the judge.


PLAYER
MLB PIPELINE #
MY RANK
DIFF (+/-)
THOUGHTS
Ronny Mauricio SS
1
1
-
We both think he will be great. Numero uno.
Brett Baty 3B
2
5
(3)
I was a bit concerned about his strikeout rate, but still had him at # 5.
Andres Gimenez SS
3
4
(1)
I thought Matt Allen’s potential is higher than Gimenez, but it is splitting hairs.
Matt Allen SP
4
3
1
See above
Francisco Alvarez C
5
2
3
I am taking a flyer that Alvarez will turn out to be the best catcher ever developed by the Mets.
Mark Vientos 3B
6
7
(1)
# Six, # seven, flip a coin.  I was slightly dissatisfied with his 2019 offensively.
David Peterson SP
7
13
(6)
A lousy 2019 (3-6, 4.19 in 24 starts) kept the former # 1 pick out of my top 10.  Not so great in the AFL, either. Prove me wrong, please.
Sherveyn Newton 2B
8
N/R
N/R
I was quite unimpressed by his .209/.283/.330 season in A ball, with 139 Ks in 109 games. Maybe I will be a lot more impressed in 2020, when he turns 21.
Josh Wolf SP
9
11
(2)
Our rankings (9 vs. 11) are close.  Little to go on but his scouting reports, but let’s hope next year at this time, he is top 5 for the 2nd rounder.
Franklyn Kilome SP
10
N/R
N/R
Coming off TJS, and being a career 22-27, 3.55 minor leaguer, led me to keep him out of my top 25.  He was my # 26. I hope he comes back like a ball of fire.
Kevin Smith SP
11
8
3
I was very impressed with his first full season, just about catching up to fellow lefty David Peterson, who started pro ball a year sooner.
Tom Szapucki SP
12
6
6
Similar to Kilome, but stronger results when he’s actually pitched and not been on DL with TJS.   So I had him higher.
Junior Santos SP
13
15
(2)
Mediocre 2019 for the very young giant, but our rankings are close.  A great 2020 at age 18?
Dedniel Nunez SP
14
N/R
N/R
I liked Dedniel a lot in the first half of 2019, but his last game was July 11.  As injury severity is often opaque in the minors, his missing two months gave me pause.  I left him off my top 25 after having him on it during the season.
Tony Dibrell SP
15
N/R
N/R
I lost a lot of Tony Love after he fell off the balance beam in AA, where (after his mid-season promotion) he went a horrid 0-8 with a 9+ ERA.  He went from Tony the Tiger to Tony the Paper Tiger.
Ryley Gilliam RP
16
14
2
We are ranked closely on the hard throwing pen arm.  Hopefully, after sputtering over his latter 2019 outings, he comes back with a vengeance in 2020.
Ali Sanchez C
17
23
(6)
After seeing Tomas Nido underwhelm with the bat, I fear Ali Sanchez may do the same – but he sure is a great defensive catcher.
Freddy Valdez OF
18
21
(3)
We ranked him close enough.  Hopefully, he is top 10 this time next year.
Alex Ramirez OF
19
24
(5)
Super-young, hopefully he shows us in 2020 that he is the next Juan Soto.
Adrian Hernandez OF
20
N/R
N/R
He was solid but not great in the DSL in 2019. I’d probably have him around # 30.
Carlos Cortes 2B
21
20
1
Our rankings are close on this solid player.
Jordan Humphreys SP
22
N/R
N/R
Hardly pitched the last 2 ½ seasons due to TJS. After my review, he pitched strongly in Arizona Fall ball, and was added to the 40 man; had I written my review later, he would definitely have cracked my Top 25.  He was my #25, alternate # 3 (in essence, my # 27).
Steve Gonsalves SP
23
N/R
N/R
Acquired after my prospect write ups.
Will Toffey 3B
24
N/R
N/R
He had a weak 2019, (.219/.347/.349, 90 Ks in 91 AA games), so I dropped him out of my top 25.  He seems to have good on base skills.
Jake Mangum OF
25
N/R
N/R
Liked his debut a lot, but his lack of power as an OF gave me pause for my top 25 – so far.  I am highly confident he will be in my top 20 in Fall 2020.
Christian James SP
26
N/R
N/R
I was very unimpressed with his 2019 (3-11, 5.07, 1.57 WHIP for Columbia), and I was much more impressed with the 2019 of harder throwing Tylor Megill (see below).
Pat Mazeika C
27
N/R
N/R
I hoped to see him hit higher than .231 in AA.
Desmond Lindsay OF
28
N/R
N/R
Always injured – will 2020 be a turning point?
Luis Carpio SS
29
N/R
N/R
Decent player, but will he ever be MLB caliber?
Steve Villines RP
30
N/R
N/R
Like him a lot; despite his 1.94 WHIP in 16 AAA innings giving me pause, I would have had him in my top 30.
ON MY LIST, NOT ON MLB LIST:



I HAD NINE GUYS ON MY TOP 25, WHO WERE NOT ON MLB’S TOP 30:
Steve Nogosek RP
N/R
9

Great relief work in AAA IN 2019, so I boosted him.  He still needs to tighten his control.
Tylor Megill SP
N/R
10

Fireballer pitched well in 3 levels (A, High A, AA) in his first full season, 6-7, 3.52, 92 Ks in 72 IP, far better than Chris James.
Blake Taylor RP
N/R
12

He really clicked into his new reliever role with a great AA stint (18 G, 1.85, 45 Ks in 39 IP, 0.95 WHIP) and in Arizona Fall ball, too.
Wilmer Reyes SS
N/R
16

Fine Brooklyn season – I feel he has more upside than Luis Carpio.
Garrison Bryant SP
N/R
17

Great surge in Brooklyn over the last several months of 2019.  Jaison Vilera had a great Brooklyn 2018, but followed by struggles at higher levels in 2019, so let’s see if Bryant can avoid that fall off in 2020.
Sam Haggerty IF/OF
N/R
18

Like his skills and speed, but he is getting older – put up or shut up in 2020.  Can he be more than Matt den Dekker?
Matt Blackham RP
N/R
19

Was not added to the 40 man roster after my ranking, so his abilities may be less than the sum of his fine minor league career stats.
Harol Gonzalez SP
N/R
22

Harol had a fine comeback  2019, but if Humphreys and Kilome come back strong from TJS in 2020, they jump over Harol in my ratings, as Harol is not a fireballer.
Andres Regnault C
N/R
25

He has hit well (.292/.328/.489 as a 20 year old in Kingsport) but can he continue to hit well as a catcher at higher levels in 2020?

Parting note: 

When many still had Andres Gimenez and not Pete Alonso as their # 1 Mets prospect last winter, I had Pete at # 1, figuring that any guy who could hit 42 HRs and knock in 146 runs in 159 minors/Arizona games in 2018 would surely succeed in 2019.  I got that one right, dontcha think?

6 comments:

Mack Ade said...

This took some time.

So much for that Taylor ranking.

Unknown said...

Mets trade Taylor and OF prospect for a 227 career batting avg CF.
Pathetic Mets.

Tom Brennan said...

Yep, Mack. As my article noted, the unranked Blake Taylor was ranked as my # 12 - I guess Houston thought that ranking was about right, huh?

I expect Marisnick to be a good field, weak hit, occasional back up 5th OF - that's it. If he doesn't end up in Syracuse.

If the Mets spend for quality players elsewhere fine - otherwise, I would have liked to keep Blake Taylor and see what he could do.

Anonymous said...

Jake Marisnick the new Juan Lagares I guess. But remember this, the first five letters of his last name spell M-A-R-I-S.

Good one.

Anonymous said...

Okay, let's try this game.

In how many minimal player personnel moves could you all build a Championship NY Mets team for 2020? Good contest I think.

I could build a much better/maybe Championship team in three moves (not counting the bench players upgrades.)

What positions.

1. Left handed starting pitcher. 2. Left handed later inning reliever. 3. Left Fielder, since hopefully JD Davis gets his wish to play third base

Summary

1. With a really good one more left handed starting pitcher. the rotation could be: 1. Jake deGrom 2. New lefty 3. Noah Syndergaard 4. Steven Matz 5. Marcus Stroman Significance here is the new left handed starter has to be really good because otherwise Phillies and Nationals (re-signing Strasburg) would be better and that does not bode well for the Mets.

2. Lefty later inning reliever. Hader may be asking too much, but the Mets could use someone solid to get the job done. Maybe a kid lefty from the Padres here?

3. I would like JD Davis on third base. Therefore, maybe Bobby Dalbec gets converted to left field. Dalbec to me has unlimited potential esp. in the HR department, but he has slightly slower feet. Left may meld well for him to his talents. Mets could use one more HR guy in the lineup.

John From Albany said...

This was a great post Tom. Maybe this should be re-run as well.

Mack's Mets © 2012