7/17/20

Reese Kaplan -- 2020 is Yet Another Uncertain Pen



We’re about a week away from baseball returning in whatever they’re calling the 60-game form with various players either volunteering not to participate or who are on the mysterious IL without acknowledging that susceptibility to the illness is the actual reason.  Yep, as the Grateful Dead once sang, what a long strange trip it’s been.

The good news coming out of camp was the report that JacobdeGrom came away with an allegedly clean MRI report not showing any significant issues that contributed to his back stiffness with resulted in his quick departure from his last intrasquad game.  Granted, in a grossly abbreviated season the health of the players is far more important than statistical achievements, but everyone is hoping for a third consecutive piece of hardware for deGrom’s mantle (even though many fans will not count 2020 as a “real” season). 

The last time around I pondered the possibilities of what the team might do if Robinson Cano was not ready for the day-to-day strain of playing second base every day.  Many folks advocate him being a DH but then what do you do with Yoenis Cespedes and Dom Smith and J.D. Davis?  At some point someone has to get on the field, warts and all, and show the defensive side of the game as well.


The biggest question for the team right now appears to be the bullpen.  Granted, Jared Hughes was something of a reclamation project when he was signed, but his career numbers indicate that the former blue chipper should be a part of the regular bullpen.  As a mostly middle reliever he has a career ERA of just 2.88 even with absorbing last year’s 4.04 (which is far superior to some of the regular members of the relief corps last year.

The one guy who was most definitely penciled in for all 60 games was reliever Brad Brach who turned in a decent if not spectacular 2019 season.  His career (including one All Star appearance) has been split between set up and closing.  His career 3.33 ERA is highly respectable and it’s understandable why BVW was willing to take a chance on the inexpensive veteran who has proven more than once what he’s capable of doing. 

If you assume the starting rotation includes Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, then it’s really the relievers that are the current uncertainty.  Now with both of the MIA arms listed above, who will the in the bullpen in their place?  


Obviously, some of the names of the pen (health pending) include Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo.  That’s four.  You’d figure Hunter Strickland is a good bet for a fifth.  If he's healthy, Dellin Betances is number six.  

Then comes the hold-your-breath category of uncertain arms like Robert Gsellman, Stephen Gonsalves, Chasen Shreve, Daniel Zamora, Paul Sewald and Drew Smith.  Then there are the starters-turned-relievers which would mean Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt and others added to the mix.  Finally, there are a number of lower level minor leaguers or pitchers who are working their way back from injuries that are available but not likely to remain at Citifield.  

It's going to be a season with an awful lot of moving parts, the first of which is the reduction from 30 active players to 28 and then down to 26.  All we can do now is shuffle the deck chairs and hope it doesn’t turn out to be another Titanic. 

6 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Wacha I read was fantastic yesterday.

Your pen is primarily your top 5 or 6, with the rest being fingers crossed useful. For me, to have Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Seth Lugo. Hunter Strickland, and what seems to be a healthy Dellin Betances? I am happy and very hopeful for a top quartile bullpen. With luck, perhaps a top 3 pen.

John From Albany said...

Reese, I agree. Uncertainty after the first 5 or six. I think what complicates it more is that we won’t have a minor league season to keep pitchers sharp and find guys with break through years to bring up. Hopefully the Pool Squad can keep sharp in Brooklyn.

Mack Ade said...

I believe MLB.com ranked the Mets pen 6th in the business.

bill metsiac said...

Bullpens are inherently iffy. Other than the closer and #1 set up guy, they are generally composed of failed starters who are not good enough to close. And they are paid accordingly, which is one good reason why our best RP last year is begging to return to starting.

Overall, as unpredictable as it is, I feel better about the pen than the rotation. A "big 5" of Diaz, Lugo, Familia, Betances and Wilson looks formidable. The fact that Gsellman, Strickland, Brach, Hughes and others are all relegated to the bottom of the list is a sign of strength.

The rotation depth is more worrisome, as it's rare for any rotation to get through a full season (even a shortened one) fully healthy. Wacha and Porcello have looked good so far, but coming off poor seasons. And who is #6? Peterson has never been as high as AAA. And the other contenders may have some ML experience, but far from any showing great promise.

Keeping my fingers tightly crossed. 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, one failed starter who did OK as a reliever is Mariano Rivera.

Some guy's tools are incredibly just suited to the pen:

Betances with his 621 Ks in 381 IP - I remember seeing his fastball/slider combo several years ago in a intraleague game and thinking "how does anyone hit that?"

Diaz 400 Ks in 249 IP.

And non-Met Josh Hader: 349 Ks in 204 IP. Jeesh!

Just freaky strikeout numbers, especially when compared to Doc Gooden'r career K rate of 7.8 per 9 IP.

bill metsiac said...

You missed my "OTHER THAN THE CLOSER AND #1 SETUP GUY".