Mets360 - The magnificent Jacob deGrom, The Lugo Principle and players who benefited from the delayed start

The magnificent Jacob deGrom, The Lugo Principle and players who benefited from the delayed start

by Brian Joura

Before the first game of the 2020 season, Keith Hernandez speculated that the hitters would be ahead of the pitchers. Then the first game the Mets won, 2-1 and the second game was 2-2 before the Mickey Mouse rules of extra innings added four more runs to the final ledger. But is that because the pitchers are ahead of the hitters? Or is it because the starting pitchers in those two games were of a higher caliber than what we’ll typically see?

In 2019, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Mike Soroka and Max Fried combined to allow 256 ER in 704.2 IP for a 3.27 ERA. And this came with the happy ball. As a whole last year, NL pitchers posted a 4.38 ERA. And we’ve heard all throughout Spring Training and summer camp how much better Matz is throwing the ball this year. And Fried was a 17-game winner last year who has claimed the No. 2 starting spot for the team that many feel will win the division.

In the two games, the four starters combined to allow 3 ER in 22 IP for a 1.23 ERA. By contrast, the relievers for both teams combined to allow 6 R in 15 IP – and that includes four scoreless innings by the Mets’ pen on Opening Day.

Overall, there have been 30 games played in MLB so far. And we see that the pitchers in those games have combined for a 3.93 ERA. This is down from last year’s 4.49 MLB-wide ERA. But how much of this is due to the quality of a team’s top two starters? At the end of August, when every team has used their fourth and fifth starters five or more times each – do you expect to see a rise in MLB’s ERA from it’s current sub-4 mark? If so, maybe we shouldn’t be so quick to say that the pitchers are ahead of the hitters.

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