New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Series Preview

       

 After a 4-3 road trip, the Mets return to Citi Field to host the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks did no favors for the Mets in their last series, getting swept by the Miami Marlins in three games. Still, they hold a respectable 15-16 record. 

    Arizona's lineup, which had been a weakness for the last few seasons, has been above average so far in 2021. They were getting MVP production from second baseman Ketel Marte for about a week before he was forced to the IL with a hamstring injury. Marte is expected to be active at the alternate site soon but will miss the Mets-Diamondbacks series. 

    In his absence, the Diamondbacks have gotten contributions from several unexpected spots, none more so than catcher Carson Kelly. Kelly, acquired by the Diamondbacks in the Paul Goldschmidt trade, was a top prospect in the St. Louis Cardinals' system. He had always been praised for his defense but never posted any eye-popping numbers with the bat...until now. Carson is scorching-hot, hitting .333/.476/.667 with 6 HR and 17 RBI. He already has more WAR (1.4) in 21 games than he had in his 213 career MLB games before 2021.

    There have been other surprises in the lineup, such as old friend Asdrubal Cabrera, who has gotten himself a starting gig and made the most of it. Cabrera, now 35 years old, is in his 15th major league season and has played in 26 of the Diamondbacks' 31 games, including 5 of their last 6. He is currently hitting .259/.385/.412 with 2 HR, 12 RBIs, and as many walks as strikeouts (18). OF Josh Rojas, acquired in the trade that sent Zack Greinke to Houston. Rojas only has 94 career games under his belt with only a 72wRC+ (including this season). But in 2021, Rojas has turned on the jets, smacking 5 homers with a .493 SLG and .254 ISO.

    Making up the rest of the outfield is LF David Peralta and RF Kole Calhoun. Peralta, known as "The Freight Train", has been solid with the Diamondbacks since coming up with them in 2014. His main issues have been injury-related, as Peralta has only topped 100 games in a season three times. Still, he has a career .291/.346/.475 line with a 116 wRC+. Peralta did slug 30 home runs in 2017 but hasn't approached that power since, with only 20 long balls in 182 games played. Calhoun signed with Arizona after spending his entire career with the Angels and immediately had one of his best seasons, hitting .226/.338/.526 with good defense and a 125 wRC+, leading to 1.8 WAR in just 54 games. Calhoun's career-high is 3.5 WAR, which he had across 157 games in 2016. The left-hander has continued his good play into this season, with a 120 wRC+ and .352 wOBA in only 13 games.

    Tim Locastro is their backup outfielder and can play all three spots well. He is one of the fastest players in the league at the moment and set the record for most consecutive successful stolen bases to start a career with 29. Locastro has struggled early on, but he's certainly someone to keep an eye on if he can get on base.

    Nick Ahmed is the everyday shortstop for Arizona. Ahmed doesn't contribute much with his bat (career 74 wRC+) but he has been one of the best fielders in baseball and is Francisco Lindor's most serious competitor for the NL Gold Glove at shortstop. Additionally, his offensive game took a step forward in 2019/20, as he eclipsed the .300 OBP mark for the first time in his career and has started slugging more extra-base hits while drawing more walks. Still, he remains a below-average bat in the lineup, but Ahmed certainly makes up for it with his stellar glovework.

    Eduardo Escobar, usually a third baseman, has been manning second base in Ketel Marte's absence. Escobar was traded from Minnesota at the 2018 deadline. He had the best stretch of his career in 2018 and 2019, combining for a .270/.327/.501 line with 58 HR, 202 RBIs, a .828 OPS, a 113 wRC+, and 7.1 WAR in 309 games. It all came crashing down for him in 2020 when Escobar hit a measly .212 with 4 HR and a .605 OPS in 54 games, resulting in a -0.5 WAR. He has turned it around this season, though, While Escobar's OBP is only .304, he has made up for it with a SLG sitting at .500. 

    Zac Gallen, Arizona's 25-year-old ace, will start the opening game. Gallen was acquired from the Marlins at the 2019 trade deadline for Jazz Chisholm, who Mets fans should be acquainted with by now. Gallen has only pitched 172.2 career innings but owns a sparkling 2.87 ERA with 10.69 K/9 and a 42.9 GB%. This season he has a 3.48 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 20.2 innings. What Gallen has struggled with is his control, with a 9.9% walk rate. The Mets showed their patience against the Cardinals on Thursday, drawing 11 walks. Gallen has also allowed a decent amount of hard contact, with a 42% hard-hit rate this year and a career mark of 35.2%. That, combined with his walks, leads to an expected ERA closer to 4 than 3.

    His opponent is scheduled to be David Peterson. Peterson has a 4.81 ERA in 24.1 innings this year but has shown flashes of dominance. He allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his first appearance but then dominated the same Phillies lineup in his next start, striking out 10 in 6 innings of 1-run ball. He followed that up by giving up 3 runs in 3.1 innings in Chicago and followed it up by holding a hot Red Sox lineup to 2 runs in 6 innings. Then, Peterson went back to work against the Phillies with 5 innings, 8 strikeouts, and only one run allowed. Hopefully, he has settled into a groove and can keep the pesky Diamondbacks' lineup in check. 

    Starters for games two and three have not yet been announced for either team, but Jacob deGrom could possibly get a start in the series. deGrom was scheduled to pitch on Tuesday (a game that was eventually rained out) but was scratched from his start due to right lat inflammation. deGrom starting would be a huge boost for the Mets, not only because he'd shut down the opposing lineup as per usual but he would also provide the bullpen with some rest. The alternative could be Joey Lucchesi, who I think could have success this year but has struggled so far.

    If Jacob deGrom isn't able to get into the series, it still looks very possible for the Mets to take two of three from the Diamondbacks. If deGrom were to get a start in, I would say a sweep is very likely. Although one shouldn't sleep on Arizona's ballclub. Their offense is very pesky and there are some solid bats in Peralta, Escobar, Walker, and Calhoun, along with the red-hot Carson Kelly. Although this same lineup could turn stone-cold very quickly, as was seen last year. Ultimately, the Mets are the easy favorites though and should end up taking the series.