New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles Series Preview

     

The New York Mets will hope to extend their 5 game winning streak as they host the Baltimore Orioles for two games at Citi Field. After a slow start, the Mets are starting to put it together, stringing together 5 consecutive wins to raise their record to 16-13. They currently sit atop the NL East while the Orioles are in the cellar of a tough AL East with a 16-19 record and are coming off of a 1-3 series against the Red Sox. 

    The Orioles have been mired in a rebuild since 2018 when they had a league-worst 47-115 record (11 games behind any other team in baseball) and finished 61 games out of first in their division. Somehow, Baltimore had entered the year with a semi-competitive mindset but began to sell off pieces after a disastrous start. The Orioles have since been one of the worst teams in the league, with only 16.7 WAR as a team since 2018 (for reference, Mike Trout has 2.5 WAR by himself in 30 games this year). 

    So far in 2021, the Orioles remain a bad ballclub but aren't as dreadful as they had been. Entering Monday, their .441 winning percentage is tied for 24th among all 30 teams and their pitching has been pretty decent (4.13 ERA, 16th in baseball). They've been buoyed by a bullpen with a 3.43 ERA, 8th-best in the majors. 36-year old closer Cesar Valdez hadn't pitched in MLB since 2017 before breaking back into the majors in 2020. Since then, he has a 1.29 ERA in 28 innings, keeping walks low and whiffs high with a fantastic changeup. Paul Fry and Cole Sulser have ERAs of 1.35 and 1.42 and longman Adam Plutko, acquired from the Indians this offseason, has a 0.95 ERA (but an xFIP north of 5). 

    Overall, their starting rotation has been weak apart from the two pitchers slated to start against the Mets: Matt Harvey and John Means. John Means has emerged as the definitive ace in the Orioles rotation through his brief career. After a cup of coffee with the O's in 2018, Means earned a spot on the All-Star team in 2019 and finished the year with a 3.60 ERA through 155 innings. In 2020, his ERA spiked to 4.53 but his expected statistics improved, with an xERA of 3.02 and an xFIP of 4.45. Hitters had a .190 xBA and .268 xwOBA against Means, who only threw 43.2 innings. He's already eclipsed that number in 2021, totaling 46 innings with a sparkling 1.37 ERA and 2.59 xERA. 

    In his most recent start, Means threw a no-hitter against a light-hitting Mariners team, only held from a perfect game by a drop third strike that was misplayed by catcher Pedro Severino. John gets it done by throwing a fastball and changeup combo; both pitches look identical coming out of his hand but his changeup comes in about 10 MPH slower. In his no-hitter, his changeup garnered 14 whiffs on 24 total pitches. Unlike their last few games, the Mets should look to be aggressive at the plate against Means, who has a career 2 BB/9.

    Matt Harvey was a skilled but controversial starter with the Mets and played a key role in getting them to the World Series in 2015, likely damaging his career in the process after a TJS the year before. His ERA doubled from 2015 to 2016/17 and Harvey has since bounced around the majors, settling with the Orioles this offseason. He impressed in spring training and has carried that success into the regular season, posting a 3.60 ERA and 0.7 WAR in 35 frames. Decreasing the use of his four-seamer, which sits about 3 MPH slower than it was in his peak years, has certainly helped Harvey. His peripherals suggest that he's due for regression as he accumulates more innings, but if he keeps up a low ERA he could pitch himself onto a competitive team around the trade deadline.

    While Baltimore's pitching has been decent, their lineup has been subpar, to say the least. Collectively, the Orioles rank 27th in OBP, 26th in OPS, T-24th in wRC+, T-24th in K/BB, and 25th in runs/game. The biggest standout performer in their lineup this season has been CF Cedric Mullins. Mullins had been a switch-hitter but became a full-time lefty and the results speak for themselves. Entering Monday, he was slashing .313/.376/.530 with a 153 wRC+ and .383 wOBA. Mullins' strikeouts have dropped and his walks have risen while he remains a threat on the basepaths.

    The Orioles have also gotten solid contributions from several veterans in their lineup. SS Freddy Galvis was brought aboard on a one-year deal this offseason and has impressed so far, hitting .284/.340/.505 with a 137 wRC+ while mixing in good defense at short, adding to 1 WAR through 29 games. Trey Mancini, who returned to the majors after a bout with colon cancer, has had an above-average 107 wRC+ and now plays first base rather than RF/LF. He has had issues getting on base, with an OBP of only .306, but unlike Galvis or Mullins he has been underperforming rather than overperforming. Mancini is hitting the ball well and it is reflected in his expected stats but not his actual outcomes. His wOBA is .319, right around the league average mark of .318, but his xwOBA is way up to .376. Mancini also has a hard-hit rate of 45.1% and his launch angle is the highest it's been since 2016.

    OF Austin Hays is the only other starting player with above-average production this season, as he's hit .259/.318/.469. His solid defensive play and offensive output have netted him 0.9 WAR, putting him on pace for a near-7 WAR year. Obviously, this doesn't seem sustainable for Hays, but he isn't the automatic out that many fans may assume he would be as an Orioles hitter.  Hays only has 95 MLB games under his belt and owns a respectable 104 wRC+ and .754 OPS. 

    The rest of the Orioles' position players have not performed nearly as well. Catcher Pedro Severino had a .710 OPS in 2020 but his numbers are down across the board, leaving him with a mere .538 OPS with some of the worst framing metrics in the sport. His barrel rate is about 1/4th of his normal number and his walk rate, which was usually around average, has dipped to 5%. Maikel Franco, whom the Mets were interested in as a depth piece this offseason, owns a poor .599 OPS and 73 wRC+. He is actually overperforming his .269 wOBA. His defense has also been suspect, with -2 DRS at the hot corner. Against the Mets, though, Franco has a career .272/.314/.520 line. 

    RF DJ Stewart had a good (but short) 2020 season with a .355 OBP, much higher than his .193 BA. This season is more of the same, as Stewart owns a .187 average but .322 OBP. The biggest difference is that is SLG% has plummeted from .455 to .293. This, combined with his reduced OBP, leaves Stewart as a well-below average hitter at the moment. 1B/DH Ryan Mountcastle was one of the highest-regarded prospects in Baltimore's system before debuting in 2020 when he had a 141 wRC+ and a .333/.386/.492 line. Mountcastle was due for regression thanks to a combination of overperformance and pitchers' better understanding of how to attack him. In 2021, his wRC+ has been cut in half to 71 and his overall line has depleted to .232/.258/.360 in about as many PAs as he had in 2020.

    The Mets aren't doing the Orioles any favors by starting Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker, two of the best options at the moment in a battered rotation. Stroman has posted a 2.12 ERA with 29 Ks in 34 innings this season, although 14 of those strikeouts have come in his last 2 starts and 10 innings pitched. Walker is coming off of his best start in a Mets uniform when he allowed just 1 hit while walking none and punching out 8 in 7 scoreless innings against the Cardinals. He has a 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.94 xERA, and 3.95 xFIP with the Mets and should improve those numbers against what seems like his weakest competition yet.

    The Mets should expect to take both games in this short series, although they will be facing the best that the O's have to offer in John Means and Matt Harvey. Still, Baltimore's lineup lacks much depth or punch, with Cedric Mullins looking like the only player who would start on a competitive ball club. I would expect that the Mets extend their winning streak to 7, even if Means and Harvey turn in quality performances.