Reese Kaplan -- Another Look at the Jeff McNeil Question

Tom Brennan recently posted an article about the future for Jeff McNeil.  To many people he was a late arrival on his way to a solid star career with moderate power and great pitch recognition.  To others he was a latter day version of T.J. Rivera or Matt Reynolds after his lackluster 2021 season.  The truth is probably more the former than the latter, but the question is how valuable is he to the Mets going forward?

Even with his .251 batting average this past season, he's still at .299 for his entire career.  How many Mets hitters have performed at that level for more than one year?  I'll wait while you scratch your head thinking there must be a handful of them.  In his three seasons as a Met John Olerud finished at an eye popping .315.  Even Keith Hernandez did not achieve McNeil's career average.  

So if you are in the former camp, you want to find a regular playing spot for the somewhat versatile McNeil.  Should he be at his preferred position between first base and shortstop?  Should he be inserted at third base to free up second for Eduardo Escobar or Robinson Cano?  Should he assume a starting spot in the outfield sending Mark Canha to the bench?  

You can make arguments for and against each of these options, but most depend on what the team does with the rest of the roster.  Robinson Cano is a $20 million problem to solve for 2022 and 2023.  Eduardo Escobar is a $10 million problem for two years (technically $9.5 million for 2023 and a $500K buyout if they want out of the 2024 option).  J.D. Davis doesn't earn much -- still just $2.1 million -- but is now arbitration eligible.  

Then there's the ponderous one to solve -- Mark Canha has signed a lucrative $26 million deal for his age 33 and 34 season when at best he's slugged 26 HRs once and holds a .244 career batting average.

Now take a look at Jeff McNeil's paycheck and it would seem to make more sense to give the man a longer and closer look.  Going into his 2022 season he's slated to earn $2.5 million and won't be a free agent until 2025.  Now that modest cost and long term commitment might make him doubly attractive to prospective trade partners, but for the same reason the Mets should be hesitant to deal him away unless for a decided advantage in roster talent coming back in return.  

I ventured the hypothesis that McNeil for a similarly priced and multi-year solution third starter to slot in behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer would certainly be worth exploring.  With the aces at the top of the rotation and Carlos Carrasco also over 30, it's not a bad thought to find someone who will be available when the others begin to falter.  

Right now not everyone is confident in what Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, David Peterson and Tylor Megill can deliver.  Furthermore, if deGrom and/or Scherzer go down with injury, those are mighty big shoes to fill.  Consequently a pitcher of the Luis Castillo caliber would look mighty fine in the rotation.

Previous Mets regimes would often try to parlay decent talent into a bevy of middle relievers.  The Mets most definitely need that kind of help right now, but a career .299 hitter means more than a 32 year old with a career 4.00 ERA.  For that kind of deal to happen there would have to be volume and quality.  

Of course, the Mets could look to barter Davis or Cano to bring back what they need, but finding takers for them will not be as easy given Cano's salary and Davis' combination of health and defensive struggles.  I wouldn't rule out the prospect of a McNeil trade but hope that it would be a fair and equitable one, not just punishment for an off year or a run-in with the $341 million man.  

For those of you who celebrate, Merry Christmas!