In the quest to find effective pitchers it always seems as if the only metric that major league scouts and teams value is velocity. No one can deny the rush you get when a batter can't catch up to a hurler's near-100 mph bullet coming over the plate and the loud thwack it makes when it strikes the catcher's glove. We've all enjoyed the high heat from guys like Doc Gooden, Nolan Ryan, Jacob deGrom and others who have worn Mets uniforms.
The issue here is that there is more than one way to retire hitters than throwing it by them. Do you remember the days of R.A. Dickey on the mound throwing his knuckleball that danced and weaved its way around the plate? How about the sidearm delivery of Jeff Innis who for seven years pitched to a 3.05 ERA out of the bullpen? What about John Franco's movement on his pitches? How about the pitchers who got swings on the illusion of a strike? None of these guys hit 100 on the radar yet they were highly effective at their jobs.
It seems nowadays that pitchers who come up through the minors are hurting themselves even more often than in the past by throwing harder than they should and more often than would be advisable too early in their careers. The rationale is understandable as they realize that high velocity gets the attention of internal development people and scouts more than any other pitching statistic.
Back in 1979 Rotisserie League creator of Fantasy Baseball Daniel Okrent developed what he called the Innings Pitched Ratio which evolved into what we now call WHIP. This new metric is calculated with a simple mathematical formula by adding together Walks plus Hits and dividing that sum but the number of Innings Pitched. The acronym WHIP reflects the result of this math. The stat is used for all pitchers, both starters and relievers.
What puzzles me (and brings me back to the obsession with velocity) is that the WHIP numbers usually provide the best indication of a pitcher's ability, more than strikeout totals or the speed of a fastball. Think for a moment about some of the hard throwing relievers the Mets have had recently like Armando Benitez and Jeurys Familia. It's great that they could blow the ball by people attempting to hit it. However, what about all the free passes?
Take Nolan Ryan as a classic example. No one will deny his fastball was world class though where it was headed was often a bit of a mystery. There were some seasons during which he issued as many as 5.7 walks per 9 innings pitched. How much more difficult was he making his job by putting people on base due to poor control? No one is denying his Hall of Fame career but his final ERA of 3.19 was good but not great.
Do you want to know who were great? The all-time leaders in WHIP include Addie Joss (career ERA of 1.89 but kept out due to 9 seasons, falling short of the commissioner's ten year minimum), Hall of Famer Ed Walsh, Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera, Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez, Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson, Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman and Hall of Famer Monte Ward. The other three in the top 10 are active pitchers on a prospective Hall of Fame track -- Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale. Do you see something in common with keeping guys off base?
What teams should be doing going forward is valuing control and movement as much as they do velocity. The best of the best were able to keep players off base which made their overall pitching success easier to achieve. Right now a pitcher who is not a flamethrower is always in the second or third tier of prospective promotion candidates to hit the majors.
Even stranger is the disdain most organizations have for anything other than the fastball, slider and curveball. When was the last time you saw a promotion of a sidearmer, a knuckleballer or a Greg Maddux type who in his 23 year career earned four consecutive Cy Young Awards from 1992 to 1995 and eventually a berth in the Hall of Fame without ever throwing in the upper 90s?
Just as people tend to evaluate hitters almost exclusively on launch angle, pitching considerations need to be more than about how loudly the smack in the catcher's glove echos off the walls in the stadium. While no one is advocating the rebirth of the EEphus pitch (also known as the Folly Floater), it would be nice to see contrasts from one pitcher to another to make it more challenging for the batters. Good control has seemed to have fallen by the wayside and it appears to be time for it to have a renaissance.
6 comments:
Sent to R.A. Dickey
Lots of great points. Mets have a number of guys in AAA and AA that have low 90's fastballs yet get guys out. Josh Walker - Cole Gordon to name a few. Let's hope they get opportunities in 2022.
They also have guys who throw 100 but struggle with control. Hopefully they will turn it around.
Johan Santana is a perfect example with an ungodly change up
Does anyone really know what was/is wrong with Jake and is he "fixed"? As optimistic as I am with our upcoming season Jake is a HUGE piece and can't help but wonder about him trying to throw 150 MPH that lead to his problems. Hopefully he'll have a sit down with Max and reevaluate his pitching repertoire. Another huge problem for all of baseball is the ongoing issue with oblique injuries that keep players out 6 weeks (of course guaranteed salaries don't help in that regard either) as it's hard to believe they haven't really figured it out yet.
Gary, only Jacob knows, and he probably doesn't know for sure.
If I was a kid pitcher, I'd get lots of video of Greg Maddux and see how he did it in his prime, and try to do the same.
Santana is someone for promising lefties to emulate for sure. Why be OK, when you can be great?
My guess, old bones setting in.
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