Players Don't Stay Young Forever
Long term baseball contracts.
Age-related decline.
The two are inextricably intertwined.
Man, I always wanted to write "inextricably intertwined."
Anyway:
There once was a player who in his three age 26 through 28 seasons averaged 27 HRs, 97 RBIs, ,284 with a .500 slug %, and stole 43 of 50 bases. Fine fielder, too. Wow.
Do that today, and turn free agent, and you'll get an 8 year, $250 million contract.
Thereafter, this fella didn't subsequently plummet, but in his next 3 seasons, ages 29-31, he averaged 21 HRs and 80 RBIs, and hit .267 and averaged stealing 10 of 15. Good, but less good....and...
Not the stuff of 8 years, $250 million.
Thereafter, in his final 3 years, aged 32 through 34, he played the equivalent of 2 full seasons and hit a total of 28 HRs and knocked in 112 runs, basically an average of 14 HRs and 56 RBIs per full season equivalent, and hit .248. More significant decline.
Not at all the stuff of 8 years, $250 million.
His next two years, which would have been years 7 and 8 of his hypothetical 8 year, $250 million contract, this fellow was....retired.
His name? Kevin McReynolds.
Besides hitting and stealing, he also was great at going into the LF corner, pivoting like a cobra, and throwing guys out at 2B.
Fast forward now to 2021.
A certain other OF guy just finished his age 28 year. To simplify the comparison, let's drop COVID-shortened 2020, and average this fella's 2018, 2019, and 2021 seasons.
He delivered 25 HRs, 77 RBIs, .244, and in 3 years had 11 of 17 in total steals.
Well short of Kevin McReynolds #'s.
But, no doubt, this certain other OF guy wants a monster contract anyway. Perhaps not 8 years, $250 million but as close to that as he can get. Maybe 6 years, $140 million, like Javy Baez just got.
Before shelling out a shekel, consider the decline of McReynolds over his next two 3-year segments (29-31 and 32-34) and ask yourself this:
What is the second guy really worth this off-season? Won't he suffer age-related decline too?
His name? Michael Conforto.
Not as good as McReynolds was.
OK, MC wants multi-year? If I were the Mets and I wanted MC back, I'd consider offering, at most, 3 years, $71 million - the money Marcus Stroman just signed for.
On the other hand, Conforto has not hit much better than the Big Lebowski, Lucas Duda, did at the same respective ages with the Mets.
In his subsequent two years after age 28, at age 29-30, Duda hit 57 HRs, but was otherwise in batting average decline, and that decline continued in his 3rd subsequent (age 32) year. And thereafter.
Age is a tough taskmaster in baseball for so many guys.
I think Conforto will do somewhat better than Duda did. But not enough better. If I were paying Conforto based on what I perceive his value to be, I'd give him (at most) 2 years, $40 million to stay with the Mets. Nothing more.
He likely wouldn't take it. We've got another MC guy, Mark Canha, for 2 years, though. I'm happy with that. Let's move on.
But the next time someone tells you how great a guy like Kris Bryant would be and that he ought to be signed for oh, I dunno, 6 years, $140 million, consider the above first. Aging ballplayers often deteriorate, sometimes slowly, sometimes (many times) rapidly.
But relatively few do not wait to deteriorate until grey hair starts sprouting or hair lines receding. Happens to pitchers, too. Jon Niese and Dillon Gee, just to name two former Metsies who were good for a while - then weren't.
So, spend accordingly. Or trade accordingly, for someone talented and younger.
16 comments:
Really great points. I agree totally.
Maestro488, most times younger is just better. There are no Gehrigs anymore. Let the buyer beware.
And yet the Mets sign four players this off season, although to short term contracts, and are expecting them to perform at their upper levels. What is the current average age of the projected starting pitching? What was their health like last year?
Hi Tom...great point.
It's amazing that this is so obvious to us...the fans, but the owners just can't see that this is ruining the sport. Why in the world won't they limit the term of contracts to 5 years. How many ridiculous contracts do the owners have to eat before they come to their senses.
Can you imagine paying Lindor 43m at age 35 for something like 260/20/80...ouch.
Right on, Tom!
Great article, but you already had me at "inextricably intertwined". And you spelled it correctly as well! :)
Paul, my spelling it correctly was simply...inexplicable.
Joe P, my guess is that the lower paid players will go along and have little clout and there won't be a length cap on contracts coming out of the CBA. Me? I'd hate to be talking about Lindor for his last 5 seasons like he is what Cano is currently. That would be a drag.
I just think that a similar guy, Reyes, was great at Lindor's age...but 5 or 6 years later, he was a shell.
Steev, that is true. I think you get two very good years out of Marte and 2 good ones out of Escobar. Canha? Hopefully at least one strong season. Health is paramount, so depth is paramount. Nearly 3 dozen pitchers used last year...24 guys threw at least 10 innings You need to plan to have at least 25 usable pitchers in 2022 that won't capsize your season.
I'd offered up the McReynolds/Conforto comparison awhile ago. I agree that long term contracts are indeed risky, particularly for power hitters who don't otherwise make a lot of consistent contact. I'd sooner see more guys who hit .280 on the club than the ones who rarely and occasionally pop one over the wall.
Reese, lot of value in having young, fast guys hit .280 or better. McNeil therefore is a keeper unless a really good trade surfaces.
See now you guys are talking my language. Would love for my team to be built that way. Remember when Kansas City beat us with a team full of hitters and a good bullpen.
Imagine if they had money to keep them, they would have been good for years. Now with the money we have look how dangerous we would be. Remember how good our offense was when we had McNeil and Smith hitting the ball all over the field. Nimmo getting on base. Alfonso wasn't getting pitched around because so many guys were hitting. You need solid hitters who get on base and don't stike out 150+ times.
Joe P, we also need CLUTCH hitting. Been absent the last few seasons.
This seems to be a good spot to make a point about the Braves and Freddie Freeman. One thing about the Braves is that they seem to know when to say 'goodbye'. From guys like Fred McGriff and Terry Pendleton to Andruw Jones and Raphael Furcal.
Unlike the Phils, who held on to their stars like Ryan Howard too long.
Maybe they're thinking that Freddie is not going to live up to the price tag.
Bob W.
Bob, I can and do see that.
But if Freddie helped thru helping the Mets AND hurting the Braves, it has to be considered.
It is all about winning and strategic advantage.
Get Freddie and we might get a re-do of Keith and 1985 and 1986.
Tom:
The Mets tried that once before. His name was Tom Glavine. It did not work out particularly well, as I recall.
Bob W
I actually would have a little more faith in Freddie Freeman. To me he looks like a dedicated player who takes pride in himself. I would seriously take a chance on him.
And yes, that was a great comparison to Keith Hernandez. And as an extra added bonus he won't destroy Darrell and Doc by introducing them to cocaine. He would just bring his bat and leadership.
The only problem is length of contract...you can't go more than 5 years. (higher AAV Uncle Stevie)
Post a Comment