Man oh man, Kris Bryant...
2nd overall draft pick in 2013.
A 6'5" slugger.
Rookie of the year in 2015, with a 5.5 WAR.
MVP in 2016, with a 7.2 WAR.
One of the game's greats for years to come, everyone said.
2017 did not change that perspective, with a 5.9 WAR season.
So far, so great.
But baseball is a grueling game, and one where aging is inevitable.
Not that going into 2018, the still-young Bryant had an aging problem.
But he only played 102 games in 2018 and his WAR dropped to 2.3.
In 147 games in 2019, he compiled 4.4 WAR, good but a clear step down from his first 3 seasons.
In weird, short 2020, Bryant got into just 34 games, did not play well, and collected just 0.6 WAR.
In 2021, he was back up to 144 games, and compiled 3.3 WAR.
The über-player of 2015-17, the one who had 7,2 WAR in 2016 but just 3.3 in 2021, had taken a distinct step down in WAR in the last 4 seasons.
He had a good 2021, but seems a little "more name than game" at this point.
His slash line in 2021 was .265/.353/.481 at age 29.
He turns 30 in early January.
"30" is a clarion call of baseball mortality. Old Man Baseball can show up at the door at any time. Just ask David Wright.
So, if Bryant wants a Baez-like 6 year, $140 million contract, is he worth it?
I don't think so.
In the first of those 6 upcoming years, in 2022, Baseball Reference projects him as a .258/.348/.460 hitter.
Slightly below 2021 when, again, he "only" compiled 3.3 WAR.
Thereafter, I'd not be surprised if he kept right on slightly slipping annually as he turned 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35. Maybe for those 6 years, the Mets would get 10-12 total WAR from KB.
Not much.
Mighty Mark Vientos might give you more.
Blistering Brett Baty might give you more.
Heck, JD Davis as a Met has a .288/.373/.472 slash in 2019-21.
Heck, Jeff McNeil has a career .299/.364/.459 slash in 2018-21.
Me? I'd, at a maximum, give Bryant the same $$$ as Marcus Stroman's 3 year, $71 million contract.
Keep in mind that Stroman had 3.6 WAR in 2021, higher than Bryant's.
Keep also in mind that Bryant would be coming to hitter-unfriendly Citifield. He has hit well there, at .276/.353/.513, but with just 8 RBIs in 85 at bats. Several long shots during a long season that don't carry long enough in Citifield to clear fences may make his Mets' power output significantly more "mortal".
Keep in mind how fragile the Mets' staff was in 2021, and how remaining $$ can be spent on pitching, pitching pitching instead.
What would you do? Would you sign him?
For how long and how much?
Or spend elsewhere?
31 comments:
If we can spend money on pitching and bryant then why not? There's also the other component of being able to use Baty/Vientos as a trade chip for a starting pitcher with Bryant in the fold.
But on the merits, he is not worth what some may think. I was thinking a Marte type contract is suitable for Bryant.
No more than two years for 25+35.
Sorry that is 25+25
Jeremy, if we could get KB cheap enough to make sense, why not? Sun, moon, and stars? It's up to Steve Cohen, his checkbook. If the sky is truly the limit, he can spend as he likes.
I just want to see the kids staying in the system if in fact the evaluation team believes they will be impact, above average major leaguers in the future. Those are the kind that get you into the playoffs. If they only project as average, you can always plug holes on a roster with available average guys like we did with Pillar and Villar last year.
Not sure 25+25 gets it done. I still think 3 years, $71 MM like what Stroman got is reasonable, off the top of my head.
In case you're mulling both talent and age as you read the article, Bryant turns 30 in 2 weeks, McNeil turns 30 around the start of the season, and JD Davis is a year younger than both. All fairly close to one another in that regard.
If you are still hoping for a Conforto comeback (I'm not, he is a few months older than JDD and about a year younger than Bryant and Jeff.
I would definitely pass on Bryant. We have pretty much the same player in McNeil, who actually has a higher upside. Bryant has been a decline since his MVP season. He is also a below average defender at every position he plays.
Now, if you can get him for say 3 yrs @$50M than I would say go for it.
I personally would spend my money on pitching. They need 1 more solid starter, 1 good reliever, and a solid 4th outfielder.
Tom
Morning.
1. Good stuff
2. Sent to Mr Cohen.
3. I love Bryant but our new outfield has contracts that are structured for them to start
4. We have two third base prospects that will be ready mid-22 (Vientos),the other OD 23 (Baty), and OF Alex Ramirez ready in 24.
Personally with max we will be in the hunt but to be true contenders we need 4 players
1 legit starter who is a 3
2 relievers with at least one being lefty
1 more hitter
Could Vientos be that guy? I wish but this is not the year for hopefully and trying to prove yourself
So I would take a flyer on Kyle Seager on a 1 or 2 year deal
He is a veteran and this team needs proven commodity who have been through the wars
But I would love it to be one of the kids I just don’t think we can take chances this year
My grandson asked me to post this for him as I drove him to school (dad says he is too young). He feels the Mets should have signed Bryant as opposed to Escobar. He says that third and left field hopefully will be filled by at least two of Batty, Vientos and Mauricio (not all make it). However, none will be ready opening day 2022. With Bryant, they could have him start at third, then move him to the outfield as the three move up. He said it might take a five year deal, which as stated here might have been a year too long (5 years for $110 mm?)
(I told him I would post this and for him to go work on his fractions).
Mack, and besides the two 3B prospects, we have at least one of McNeil or Davis to give us some ABs there - just don't watch the defense.
f course, Cohen could be thinking far bigger, like a Carlos Correa, if the latter is willing to shift to 3rd - but that would be super expensive. That would be an ultimate "built to win now".
Eddie, good thoughts indeed. We do need another quality starter - please, though, someone more durable than Carrasco. Is Rodon that guy? Not sure he passes the health test.
2 relievers, yes. No skimping in the bullpen - that is the way to get burned, trying to get by with a thin pen.
I feel bad for Vientos not getting more plate appearances. Alonso was a 2018 beast, with 159 games including Arizona Fall. That had him ready for 2019's explosion. I just wonder if Vientos is ready enough, or if he needs another 300 minor league ABs.
Smart kid
I was pushing for Bryant but I’ve changed how I feel about him overall. I really like his defensive versatility and how that can he’ll our depth chart/ roster flexibility while bring an above average bat but I’m not sure if he’s worth at 9 figure contract no matter how deep uncle Steve’s pockets are.
I won’t cry if we pick him up (and I would still keep McNeil if we do). But my strong preference is to trade for Matt Chapman from the A’s. 2 arbitration years left and if we don’t want to keep him we can give hike a QO (assuming they’re part of the next CBA) and let him walk when Batty’s ready to take over 3rd. The A’s. Are likely to trade Olheson to another team, perhaps the Yankees, and we can give them Dom Smith and JD Davis back. Throw in a few second tier prospects if needed.
I won’t cry if we sign Bryant. I don’t think he’ll be a terrible contract and it might even be decent on the front end but I don’t think we’ll get full value from it. If we did sign him I would still keep McNeil and use Davis and Smith to go to the A’s for pitching help.
If we made the Chapman trade, I’d sign Rodon for the rotation and pick up Danny Duffy and Collin McHugh for the pen.
If we sign Bryant I would trade for either Christ Bassitt or Sean Manaea (maybe get a high leverage Reliver thrown in) and still go out and get Duffy and McHugh.
I think this team is 1 impact bat, 1 mid rotation or better starter, 2 high leverage relievers and 2 bench pieces away from greatness (normal caveats about the team not turning until the walking wounded apply).
I had heard that Bryant was not good in the clubhouse, and a distraction.
Something like Trevor Bauer's reputation before the sexual assault charge.
Not saying Bryant is anywhere near where Bauer ended up, but still, I'd pass on Bryant.
Jansen,Mcutchon, and trade(Smith,Davis and or McNeil) for one of the As starters.
Steev, tell your grandson he is a future GM. Astute thinking. I just wonder if they did Escobar, realizing Bryant was too much money by comparison. Escobar does bring a shorter contract and clears a wide berth for the kids coming up.
Forget Bryant. We have to keep the position open for either Vientos or Batty.
For 2022 the Mets have J.D. Davis or McNeil or Cano. Spend money on pitching / relievers and a good 4th/5th outfielder.
Also the Mets need to figure out what the problem between Lindor and McNeil was and fix it or they will have to end up playing Cano at 2B and McNeil at 3B. Cano may be more of a DH at this point.
Joe P, I doubt 3 years, $50MM gets it done, and I'd be surprised if the Stroman-like 3 years, $71MM gets it done either. But I agree with you otherwise.
Dan B, I like the proposed deals you would make. The important thing for Steve Cohen to avoid is the Wilpon pole vault approach...how close can the Mets get to the bar without knocking it off. Wilpon teams always knocked the bar off. You want to realistically plan for a 100 win team - that way if things go wrong you still end up at 94 wins.
No half-stepping. This team needs to have the adjective "formidable" attached to it.
Anonymous, had not heard that about Bryant. We don't need an irritant, unless the irritant is someone who spurs other guys to do better.
Hey, Viper, how are ya?
No Cano at 2B. My guess is his mobility must be approaching inertia.
I still think the 2 kids (Baty, Vientos) will be stars - if management agrees, they should not be obstructed - so, if management agrees they will be stars, spend a lot on pitching. More so than ever, you can never have too much pitching.
Doing good Tom, how about you?
Still reading everything but not following the Mets as closely as before due to the yearly expected nose dive. Hopefully next year, the culture finally changes and these underachievers win at least the WC.
Still need pitching. What don't we know about Stroman? I mean, he signed for less money and years than expected but the Mets showed no interest what so ever? Was he that toxic?.
Would like to see Pillar / Villar on the team.
Interesting year coming up.
Viper, I am doing well, dodging Omicron molecules as best we all can.
I really do think Stroman was viewed as a bit of a handful, but perhaps I am wrong. He was certainly unique, and it seemed to work for him.
Pillar/Villar? Ya never know - if the price and fit is right. Pillar really struggled hitting at Citifield, so I am not sure he would not mind ending up elsewhere. But ending up on a championship contender could make him overlook that.
Villar had a nice season, but I wonder if he is somehow part of the reason his clubs don't win. I recall a few bad base running faux pas, and his defense isn't Rendon-like.
We shall see. But unless Scherzer is planning to pitch 300 innings, we definitely need more pitching. I think the Mets cycled through 3 dozen last year. Including Pillar and Guillorme, of course. How the best non-pitcher pitcher, JD Davis, escaped pitching duty is beyond me.
How bout this trade,Baez,Conforto,Stroman,Syndergard, Loup for Sherzer,Marte,Escobar and Canha?
Koos, you are a visionary.
Kidding aside, so far, so good.
I like Kris Bryant and what he has done so far in this game. However, I don't think that Steve Cohen should open his wallet again for Bryant. There comes a point where you can load up with too many highly paid superstars, and when a few of them don't perform the negativity can really bring a team down. If the 5 year plan is to build a team that will consistently compete amongst the best, then you need some very talented players (got them) and some young high potential folks to learn from the best and start to contribute. That becomes sustainable when the big contracts run out or the inevitable injuries happen.
So sure, we could bring in all-stars to fill 3B and LF - but then how do those talented guys like Vientos, Baty, Alvarez get their shot? And if you let talented guys like Smith, McNeil, and Davis atrophy on the bench you have squandered a very valuable asset.
If there is more money to be spent, I agree with Eddie Corona - get another starter and a lefty reliever.
Koos when you look at it that way it makes you think twice. We still have a ways to go.
Great points everyone,
Hey Tom, I only threw out that figure on Bryant because I would only sign him on that type of deal. This way he would be off the books when the kids are ready to contribute. This is the first I heard of Bryant being a bit of a clubhouse problem, But I strongly feel he's just not that good to lock up long term.
Everything I read says he is now below average at every position. I really think we should move on from him.
I'm with everyone else that pitching is the biggest issue. One more starter and a good reliever ( preferabley two) are a must.
They at least have given me hope that we are heading in the right direction.
Joe P, Bryant can DH then - along with half the roster. Can the CBA give us a 10 batter line up and 2 DHs? LOL
Paul and Dan, I think Escobar is a very good add. Maybe you re-sign a Villar for a year as strong reserve. By 2023, Baty and Vientos ought to be 100% ready, Vientos most likely sooner. Skip Jellybean Joe Bryant.
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