Monday I wrote about the Mets' need to supplement their starting rotation to counteract the issues of age, health and limited effectiveness from inconsistency. You can argue all day long about the quality to expect from Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco, but they are there to stay until injuries or consistent ineptitude take them out of the rotation. The question becomes who is the 5th starter, the 6th starter and the 7th starter if we deem the current slate of in-house possibilities less than appetizing for a variety of reasons.
The easiest route to take, of course, is free agency. To obtain a free agent you nearly need to present a contract offer that the candidate in question finds acceptable and the work is done. There are quite a few pitchers still not signed who will be eligible once a CBA agreement happens. Let's take a look there first and see who is most appealing:
From the left side there are four viable options with varying capabilities to induce trauma over health concerns, salary demands or age. The first one right off the bat is lifetime Dodger Clayton Kershaw. Having already lost Max Scherzer it's unlikely the $35 million or so per season necessary to lure the 33 year old with 3 Cy Young Awards on his shelf is fantasy even for the folks who feel Steve Cohen is going to spend like George Steinbrenner in his heyday. My bigger concern about Kershaw is his overall health which has kept him from being a 30+ start hurler since 2015.
The next one who has a fine career resume but major injury issues is Cole Hamels. He's got a 161-120 career record with a highly commendable 3.42 ERA. That's the good news. Then comes the injury problems where he hasn't pitched regularly since 2019 and he is turning age 39 during the upcoming 2022 season. Right now the health status is worrisome to say the least. He earned one appearance with the Braves in 2020 and had shoulder issues. Then he didn't even make it past a simulated game with the Dodgers last year when the same problem arose. Even at the $1 million the Dodgers were scheduled to pay him, I would think it's a bad bet at this point.
Speaking of injuries, what do you do when a starting pitcher delivers a stellar 2.37 ERA for a season and is now a free agent? Well, in the case of Carlos Rodon, he's going to be looking for that big money contract and the rags have him projected at $24 million per season. For his career he is a 42-38 pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, but the 2021 season at 13-5 with that stunning ERA came at the perfect time. Look a little more closely and you will see that for his entire career the portly lefthander has never hit the 30-start mark and handing out a long term deal to a guy who might do a Jed Lowrie impression.
There are other lefties out there whose names you've heard popping up now and again, but the number one obvious choice for the Mets to consider is former St. Louis Cardinals starter Kwang-hyun Kim. The now 33 year old southpaw has made 28 starts since emigrating from Korea and achieved a winning record to go with a 2.97 ERA. He earned a total of just $5.8 million in two seasons combined for the Redbirds, so his expected salary nowadays might be say $7 million without a long term commitment expected. That's quality at a bargain price for a guy who is completely healthy.
On the right handed side of the ledger there are some interesting options as well. A lot of the same issues arise with this group as well:
How about a pitcher who has a career record of 218-131 with a 3.42 ERA? He certainly sounds like a top tier starting pitcher, but turning 39 is Zach Greinke starting to lose it? His last two seasons have been relatively healthy but in both 2021 and 2020 he posted ERAs over 4.00, though in 2019 he was his usual stellar self with a 2.93 effort. He has been earning north of $30 million for some time now and while it's possible to snag him for less on a very short term deal, again you're somewhat rolling the dice that the last two years may be more indicative of what he can do at the twilight of his career.
Former St. Louis Cardinals reliever and starter Carlos Martinez has notched some impressive numbers during his career, but like Greinke the last few seasons have not been impressive. His winning record of 62-52 is accompanied by a career ERA of 3.74. If he's healthy, at just 30 years of age he might be worth some consideration despite his 2021 and 2020 combined record of 4-12 with a 6.95. Health is most certainly worth an in-depth exploration given how much better he was earlier in his career.
Big righthander Michael Pineda has also struggled with his health throughout his career. Despite those issues, he has a winning record and an ERA under 4.00. He's coming off a few good seasons in a row though he didn't handle the full workload. For the Twins over the last four years he has averaged an annual salary of $7.5 million but he's probably looking to exceed the $10 million mark he got in the last two years. At 6'7" and 280 pounds he is not a pitcher who looks to be in prime condition, but Bartolo Colon, Mickey Lolich and others were quite successful despite their physiques. I'm leery about his health, but he has played in New York already across town so it should not pose a special challenge.
Most of the rest of the choices have either career ERAs over 4.00 or have pitched quite poorly in the past couple of seasons (I'm looking at you, Ervin Santana!) There are some prospects here worth consideration but I'm still sticking to the lefty Kim as my number one target.
5 comments:
I look at that list and think: there must have been something they really didn't like about Marcus Stroman.
It is a tough decision to make, and makes it clear why they went after Max.
Kim sounds like the best combo of competence and lack of fragility there. I guess they should have thought more closely about outbidding Seattle for Flexen last year. Or keeping Stevie Matz, the two of whom cobined for 27-13 last year.
I agree with your analysis and choices, but I wonder how much Kim's nationality adda to his report card. 😁
This article makes the external options pretty clear, and it shows why it is so hard to succeed as a GM. Each comes with some pretty significant pros and cons that can make you a hero or a goat.
Personally, I like Rodon because he really stepped up last year and he's a lefty. But $24M is a lot to spend if he only gives you 130 innings.
I loved what Peterson and Megill gave us in the last two years, so it is a less expensive option to go with what we have. However, as Reese points out, there are many things from injuries to performance issues that can deplete the starting rotation. You can never have enough pitching.
It will be very interesting to see what Billy Eppler does.
I am not sure who has Rodon at $24M, but the White Sox sure didn't. If there was any chance that he'd get over twenty, there would have been a qualifying offer. My guess is Rodon gets $15M tops. He just hasn't stayed healthy enough for the big money. (And his second half 2021 showed that)
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