On Wednesday we explored some of the likely free agent targets for the Mets to pursue. As stated then, it's the easiest way to supplement a roster as all it takes is an agreed upon salary and no resources from your player pool (current team members or minor league prospects). Of course, not everyone wants to play for New York and not everyone is willing to accept a short term deal with the Mets who seemingly will spend but they want to know the maximum financial exposure
The other way to change your roster, of course, is via the trade route. A lot of names have been bandied about in this regard, some good, some suspect and some expensive in terms of players sacrificed or salary required. Let's take a closer look.
This team has a few pitchers that would fit nicely into another team's rotation. At the top of the list, of course, is Luis Castillo. If Mets fans can get past their revulsion at the identical name from years past who left them wanting less, the Reds ace is a decent arm. He's been an All Star once and generally maintains a pretty good balance between strikeouts and walks. The problem is his ERA has been all over the place with 3.98 last season. For his career he's better at 3.72. His 2021 salary was $4.25 million and he's likely going to see a significant but not unconscionable bump for 2022. Salary wouldn't be the roadblock here and he would be on the team for 2 years before becoming free agent eligible in 2024.
Now the Reds would probably rather move the existing contract for Sonny Gray. His career ERA is better than Castillo's at 3.61. He had a rather poor 2021 and the receiving team would be on the hook for a 2022 salary of over $10 million and a 2023 team option would set you back $12 million. Getting him should cost less in terms of players sacrificed given the poorer season and the much higher salary along with only one year of guaranteed placement on the Mets roster.
Here there are a number of pitchers who are worth considering. Many would vociferously advocate for 28 year old Frankie Montas. The big man turned in a highly effective 2021 with a 13-9 record accompanied by a nice 3.37 ERA. He struck out over 200 and had almost a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The potential suggests he has room to build on this fine season during which he made 32 starts. He was paid only $1.8 million last year and would be under contract for two years before hitting free agency in 2024. His price in terms of players required in trade would be quite high.
Slightly lower in terms of the cost to obtain would be big lefty Sean Manaea. He was just over .500 at 11-10 last season with a 3.91 ERA and nearly a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Manaea has been a starter pretty much his entire career and would fit in nicely to the current rotation bereft of southpaws. Unfortunately he's only slated for one year as he becomes a free agent in 2023. Last season he earned $5.95 million.
The sleeper pick here is little known starter Chris Bassitt. If you held a gun to the head of the average Mets fan they wouldn't even know his name. In 2021 he had a GREAT year, going 12-4 with a 3.15 ERA. That's not bad for an invisible man. He's in the final year before free agency after earning just $4.9 million last year. He would not cost as much in terms of players and prospects as would the multi year controllable Montas or the lefty Manaea. For his career Bassitt is 31-25 with a 3.47 ERA. That's the kind of quality I'd target if I was in Billy Eppler's chair. At age 32 he won't be as desirable as the younger options from Oakland and for the last three years in a row he's been under 1.200 in WHIP. He's not a big strikeout guy, but he definitely gets the job done. He'd be my top pick here among the two Reds and three A's.
While I'm sure there are many other unknown options on other teams who either don't want to pay up or who think their fringe pitchers are ready to break through, but these names have come up the most frequently. Who you would have to give up depends a lot on which pitcher(s) you are targeting. If the price tag for Bassitt, for example, was either Dom Smith or J.D. Davis plus a mid level prospect, I'd do that in a heartbeat. They can't be demanding too much for a guy turning 33 who isn't setting strikeout records but simply gets hitters out.
6 comments:
Those all seem like suitable trade targets, except possibly for Sonny, if his tank is running on empty. Do not trade Ginn or Allan, if they want prospect pitchers.
I'd rather see the Mets use the arms they now have and promote Ginn around Memorial Day than trade him. I have a funny feeling he'd pull a Tylor Megill, if given the opportunity.
Interesting that one pitcher that they didn't keep - Stroman - is lashing out at fans for racist comments and Epperson for incompetence. Marcus seems to lack restraint, which is likely why he is not here. OI thought fans were largely quite supportive of him. (Not in 2020, of course, when he bailed on the Mets and torpedoed their 2020 season).
These are some great targets. I did some analysis on each, comparing their 2021 stats (WHIP and opponent BA), durability (age, innings pitched), and normalized them to the ballpark they pitch in versus Citi Field. Castillo, Montas, and Bassitt all have very similar park-adjusted stats to what we got from Taijuan Walker last year. Each comes at a bargain salary compared to Walker's $10M, and if all four of them were to compete for a #3 slot in the rotation based on last year's adjusted stats, the favorite would be Chris Bassitt. That said, this would be a short term acquisition, as Bassitt is already 33 and may not be able to sustain that level of performance for long. But with Megill, Peterson, and Ginn moving up the maturity curve, we don't need that much time.
I'd still interested in one of the young guys from Cleveland. All have team control for at least 4 years (McNeil, Smith, and Davis each still have 3 years left).
It would be expensive, but Cleveland really needs offense. There could be a match there with having to include a top 10 prospect.
"Stroman bailed on the Mets and torpedoed their 2020 season"
Tom, That is also what I saw, and believe, and this is the first
time 've heard anyone else express it also.
I loved Stro's competitiveness. Unfortunately, it often looked more like "me vs. the world" instead of "Mets vs. the NL", so I'm sure that he didn't make enough friends in the front office. It will be tough to replace the 179 innings that Marcus gave the Mets in 2021, but there are guys (including the aforementioned Montas and Manaea) that can do it.
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