2/23/22

Tom Brennan - My # 31 Thru #50 Mets' Prospects Heading Into 2022


Many of these 20 guys below my top 30 from yesterday's article could someday be future NY Mets.

Several guys who follow easily could have been in my top 30, as opposed to just outside of it.

If you somehow missed yesterday's Top 30 article, I forgive you, of course, because forgiveness is divine, so to show you I mean it, here's the top 30 list:

1) Francisco Alvarez, C

2) Brett Baty, 3B

3) Mark Vientos, 3B/OF

4) Ronny Mauricio, SS

5) JT Ginn, RHP

6) Alex Ramirez, OF

7) Matt Allan, RHP

8) Khalil Lee, OF

9) Adam Oller, RHP 

10) Nick Plummer, OF 

11) Carlos Rincon, OF 

12) Calvin Ziegler, RHP 

13) Dominic Hamel, RHP 

14) Simon Juan, OF 

15) Robert Dominguez, RHP 

16) Carlos Cortez, 2B, OF 

17) Eric Orze, RHRP 

18) Mike Vasil, LHP

19) Jake Mangum, CF 

20) Junior Santos, RHP 

21) JT Schwartz, 1B 

22) Christian Scott, RHP 

23) Jose Butto, RHP

24) Tom Szapucki, LHP 

25) Josh Walker, LHP 

26) Cole Gordon, RHP 

27) Hayden Senger, C 

28) Bryan Metoyer, RHRP 

29) Bryce Montes de Oca, RHRP 

30) Kevin Kendall, SS 

Past my top 30 are these 20 fine fellows: 

31) Travis Blankenhorn - probably belongs higher. I dunno. Seems like AAAA to me, though, after his .246/.354/.456 hitting in AAA and his 4 for 23 as a NY Met. I like his TB initials, though.  And if he ends up someday in Seattle, he can and most likely will become the next Justin Turner.

32) Luke Ritter - Ritter was quite the hitter when not playing in Brooklyn, with a gaudy .561 road slugging %. Brooklyn was worse than purgatory for him, as his .279 slug % there attests. 

He can show us what he's really got in AA next year, when hopefully he plays in a lot more games than the mere 73 he got into due to his injury-impacted 2021 - and gets out of Brooklyn Hell.  Tough hitting into the teeth of a cyclone.  Gotta get the strikeouts down, though.

33) Jose Peroza - I had Jose higher-ranked until he slumped late in the season. Still, he had a very solid 2021, is a good RBI guy, good OBP, 6 months younger than Brett Baty, and I have high hopes for him in 2022, when he should be slugging in AA.

34) Wilmer Reyes - misses almost the whole season, returns…and hits!  Thankfully he headed to the Fall League to get more 2021 ABs.  Doing OK there so far.  Only dropped from the Brennan Top 30 due to severe lack of playing time in 2021. Get him to AA in 2022 to start.  Wilmer's biggest fan, John From Albany, will no doubt heavily scout him there.  So-so Arizona fall performance, but a healthy 2022 could rise him up the charts.

35) Colin Holderman…slowed in his career by injuries, Gus believes he’s gonna bring it in 2022, so I am slotting him here. Perhaps the righty will be well and reach his MLB dream in 2022.

Connor Grey - MiLB.com

36) Connor Grey - 27 years old, but the Mets picked him up in 2021 and he pitched very well.  If he picks up where he left off, he could soar up this list, and possibly even show up in Queens in 2022.

37) Jaylen Palmer - many, many good physical attributes, but when promoted to High A, the highly athletic JP fanned a jaw-dropping 65 times in 39 games. Fix the K problem, move towards the head of the class.  For many hitters, though, Ks are their Achilles heel.

Everyone else has him higher - "best athlete in Mets minors", they say - but his ultra-high 254 Ks in 167 pro games in 2019 and 2021 make me push him much further down the list than others might place him.  Somehow, that many Ks...and yet a still-solid career .356 OBP.  Head scratcher, but that gives me hope that everyone else is right and I am wrong.

38) Jack Wold 12th round outfielder - for the Low A St Lucie Mets, in his 2021 pro debut, he notched 86 ABs, 8 XBHs, .279/.315/.442, just 17 Ks in 25 G.  Very nice career kick off at a level as high as low A, so truth be told, and not to be cold, I added Wold to the fold.  No reason he shouldn't climb fast.

39) Matt Rudick 13th round infielder - for the FCL squad, the 5'9" OF generated a nifty .303/.404/.447 in 76 at bats, 6 for 6 in steals.  Nice!   Might he grow into being a Carlos Cortes with speed?  We'll find out in 2022.

40) Nick Meyer - I give the edge right now to my top 30 fellow catcher Hayden Senger. I am concerned (perhaps too much so) about Nick's lack of power...at .251/.337/.324.  Hayden's got him on power. Career 35% on "caught stealing" too, just like Senger.

41) Justin Lasko - a 30th rounder in 2019, his second season as a pro in 2021 was a fine one indeed.  7-9, 3.67 ERA in A and AA.  The 24 year old righty did get hurt and didn't pitch much after a strong July.  His 8.14 ERA in AA showed he had a case of the Binghamton Blues, and AA Abuse Syndrome.  But let's see if Lasko can rebound strongly and thrive in AA in 2022.

 

Mr. Seymour

42) 2021 6th rounder, P Carson Seymour - 6'6" righty got his big toes wet in the FCL, walking 6 in 4.1 IP with 4 Ks and 1 run allowed.  I want a lot more than 4.1 IP in 2022.

43) 2021 10th rounder, lefty Keyshawn Askew - great FCL debut, 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 14 Ks, 2-0.  Keyshawn!!


Nate Lavender

44) 2021 14th rounder, P Nate Lavender -  the 6'2" lefty in 4 FCL games, 6.2 IP, 1 run, 12 Ks.  Excellent!  My new favorite color?  You guessed it.

45) 2021 15th rounder, 5'7" IF Wyatt Young - FCL darling, hitting a scintillating .370/.426/.478.  

46) 2021 17th rounder, lefty P Nick Zwack - FCL dazzler: 7.1 IP, 13 Ks, 0.00 ERA.  Sweet!  A Big Zwack Attack!  So, Keyshawn, Nate, and Nick threw 23 innings combined, allowed just 2 earned runs, and fanned 39.   Good golly, Miss Molly.

47) Sherveyn Newton - athletic infielder who regressed in 2021. Fans too much.  Hopefully, he will strongly progress in 2022.

48) Jordany Ventura - RHP, the Mets site has him in their top 30, so I'd be remiss, I think, to not squeeze him into my top 50.  Good fastball, but signed in 2018 and only 50 pro innings so far.  He can show he is healthy and climb his way up my list by doing what pitchers do - throw innings.

49) Joander Suarez - RHP, the Mets site has him in their top 30, so I'd be remiss, I think, to not squeeze him into my top 50. 7.66 ERA in 25 innings for St. Lucie in 2021, so let him pitch better and climb his way up my list.

50) Michel Otanez - as I understand it, he throws up around 100 at his peak...but his 40 innings of 58 K ball in 2021 also came with a crazy 41 walks.  Considering 2016 was his first pro year, a walk an inning in A ball 5 years later appears to be a lethal fault to have.  Walks need to be cut by 50% in 2022, at a minimum, period, so I have him at # 50.

Hopefully, I did not overlook anyone.  If I did, and you're a Mets farmhand, you're allowed to have your Uncle Ernie or your Auntie Gin or your Papa John to make a case for you.  I'm all ears.

Anyway, that is my abbreviated top 50 take.  Hope you enjoyed it.

John From Albany was doing outstanding video-packed updates on a number of minor league players, and had indicated he planned to do a lot more of them before taking a break from the site, which hopefully won't be too long.  So, rather than elaborate on these players further, I'd like to see if at some point soon, he might resume that article series.

Also, please feel free to share any thoughts on any of my top 50.  I will say that I tend to downplay international signings until they actually demonstrate some performance - too many have not panned out, so I left most of those just starting out off of my list for now.






13 comments:

Paul Articulates said...

Tom,
Lots of good work went into this list. I'm also high on Reyes to make some noise this year. Looking forward to seeing him in action with the Rumble Ponies this year.

Tom Brennan said...

Thanks.

Somewhere, I can hear Wilmer Reyes shouting, "Let's get ready to....RUMBLE!"

Bleeding Blue and Orange since 1973 said...

Hi Tom, #35 Allan Winans is no longer Mets property. He was a minor league free agent and signed with, drumroll please... the Braves. You ahve SS Wyatt Young and #45 and #47??

nickel7168 said...

Thanks, Tom, for doing this early and going 50 strong.

Tom Brennan said...

Bleeding Blue, I was rushing. Thanks for spots.

Tom Brennan said...

Nickel, you’re welcome.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, I messed up on two spots, which Bleeding Bluepointed out, so I am adding Colin Holderman and Sherveyn Newton into those two spots instead

TexasGusCC said...

:-) Glad to hear that.

Tom, Sherveyn Newton was hurt again this year, but the lack of recognition on spin could be an eyesight problem. Nonetheless, the Mets asked Newton to go to a hitting camp this off season similar to what the Cardinals did with Nick Plummer. My fingers are super crossed there was a breakthrough because in an interview with Keith Law, Law called him the best defensive shortstop the Mets have in the minors and a five tool player if he can get the ash to meet the hide more often.

TexasGusCC said...

Alvarez
Baty
Allen
Ginn
Vientos
Mauricio
Lee
Ramirez
Plummer
Ziegler

Mangum
Hamel
Vasil
Rincon
Palmer
Szapucki
Orze
Butto
Oller
Cortes

R. Dominguez
W. Reyes
J. Santos
D. Nunez
Joel Diaz
C. Scott
Senger
Peroza
Newton
Josh Walker

C. Gordon
Ritter
Metoyer
K. Askew
Levi David
Ventura
Holderman
Kendall
Renteria
Consuerga

Britto
C. Dominguez
H. Gonzalez
Gilliam
De Oca
Kendall
Meyer
Otanez
Dibrell
Suarez

R. Colina
Lavender
Zwack
Blankenhorn
Young

Tom Brennan said...

Gus - nice list. I do, however, still think that strikeout thrower de Oca has a higher chance of success than the two who incur tons of strikeouts, Palmer and Newton. My challenge on the latter two - can you name any other minor leaguer (Mets or non-Mets) who have struck out that much at lower minor levels that have been able to sufficiently correct the problem and succeed?

The three Mets comparables that come to mind are Ivan Wilson, Vicente Lupo, and Champ Stuart - they were 0 for 3 with 3 strikeouts when it came to trying to fix that K issue.

All de Oca has to do is hone his control (thankfully, he is no Sam McWilliams) and stay healthy.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, not to beat a dead horse, but Newton's career started in 2016. His last two seasons were in low A...565 plate appearances, 197 Ks, .205.

I just don't see it. Desmond Lindsay was an athlete, too.

TexasGusCC said...

It’s hope, alot of it. I’m seeing the train coming too as the light in the tunnel, just hoping it stops. Hey, I read yesterday Ohtani has a 28% strikeout rate as a hitter…
:-)

Tom Brennan said...

Just say no to Ohtani.

Probably his pitching K rate too.