Anyone that follows the Mets has a pretty good idea that the 2022 roster had a LOT of pending free agents for the 2023 season. In prior years, the team usually wasn't very good and having a bunch of openings could be seen as an opportunity to get better (addition by subtraction).
Unfortunately, as far as roster vacancies are concerned, the 2022 Mets had a very good season so keeping as many players as possible would seem like a good idea, right?
I have my own general ideas about roster construction, but for this series of articles I plan on taking a closer look at the positions that are most in flux this offseason. For today, I will start with "position number 2" on your scorecards, which is the catcher. Because, after all, if you don't have a catcher then you will likely have a lot of passed balls (credit to Casey Stengel, of course).
Most of the time, the Mets' catchers have been fairly average, in my opinion. Then along came Mike Piazza and the fanbase was spoiled with a generational talent that also happened to play behind the plate (apologies to Gary Carter who was excellent, but not in Mike's class). Now, that level of play is the expectation going forward and it is a very high bar to clear for anyone on the roster.
In my opinion, you need two solid catchers on a competitive roster. The position is so physically demanding that it is unreasonable to expect your catcher to start 162 games in a season (the aforementioned Piazza averaged just over 100 starts per year behind the plate during his career).
You can have a dominant catcher (100-110 starts) and a good back up who soaks up the rest of the schedule (50-60 games) and be in good shape.
In 2022, the Mets loosely followed this model with Tomas Nido (98 starts) taking the lead and James McCann (61 starts) playing the role as the back up (Michael Perez, Pat Mazeika and Francisco Alvarez also made a handful of appearances, but I chose to focus on the first two). Collectively, the main duo produced the following offensive statistical line (and yes, that is an appropriate description);
159 Games; 458 AB - 6 HR/46 RBI/3 SB - .572 OPS and 0.2 WAR
I know that a lot of fans are not necessarily into statistics, but to make the listed numbers easier to digest, they are not very good. Basically, they are below replacement level, which means that an average replacement player would be expected to meet or exceed these numbers. While Nido was on an affordable contract (890,000 dollars), McCann actually made 8.15 million dollars during the 2022 season!
What is even more amazing is that the Mets won 101 games in 2022 with a void behind the plate (offensively, anyway).
So, moving forward to the 2023 season, both Nido and McCann are currently on the Mets' roster, so will this be more of the same?
Fortunately, we have a highly regarded prospect that had a cup of coffee late last year with the parent club, named Francisco Alvarez. Some feel that he is is the top rated prospect in baseball......not just at catcher, but number one overall. He played mostly at AA and AAA last year and put up the following statistical line;
110 games; 411 AB - 27 HR/78 RBI/0 SB - .885 OPS (some of his games were as a DH)
Without trying to overhype things too much, he has a bat very similar to Piazza's and he is only 20 years old. The biggest question with Alvarez has been his "glove work" behind the plate and it is a valid concern (but I think it is easier to teach someone to play better defense then it is to teach them to hit like he does).
Even if he needs an adjustment period, I can't see him hitting worse then what Nido/McCann produced last year, right? I would give him the lion's share of the starts in 2023 and cover him with Tomas Nido, who has experience behind the plate and is above average defensively.
For a team that struggled to hit home runs at times, adding Alvarez's bat could be a huge jolt offensively AND it would be reasonable from a monetary standpoint.
With those two in lined up, I don't see any room for James McCann on the roster (despite having two more years and 25 million dollars owed). Seriously, is his contract one of the worst free agent deals in the past decade, or so? Perhaps the Mets could eat a large percentage of his salary and try to deal McCann to another team that is in need of a second catcher?
Is relying on a rookie catcher too risky for a team that should be in contention for a playoff spot?
8 comments:
I would start out carefully.
Starter - Nido ... defense first
Backup - Alvarez ... if defense holds up, increase games played
Fodder - McCann ... eat half his salary and trade him to a team that needs his defensive skills
Agree with Mack.
Alvarez had lower errors, lower passed balls, and higher caught stealing rate in 2022 vs. 2021. I think if his post-op ankle allows him to work on his catching in the off season, he should be adequate defensively.
My biggest concern is he fanned about once every 4 PAs last year, so he needs to keep those in check.
All that said, I work him in slowly, and hopefully by Memorial Day, he is my # 1 catcher for years to come.
the problem is 2024
Parada will be ready
Three catchers! 26 man roster let’s you do that. Alvarez DHs and plays catch maybe 40% of the time.. Nido and McCanns the 60% and come in late innings. Whe. Lvarez is catching. If Alvarez comes along you trade one in July.
Interesting, Woodrow........I like the idea of Alvarez getting some at bats in the DH slot, while learning from Nido (and maybe McCann, although I am less sure about that).
Parada is a nice problem to have.......I still say it would be interesting to keep them both (Alvarez and Parada) and let one catch while the other DH's. Keeps them both fresh(er) and they can both hit better then what we currently have.
EVERY team would love to have that "problem".
Players change positions. Hitters always play,especially in the 2020s.
Alvarez # one. Nido #2, McCann traded.
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