Greetings, Mets' fans.
It has been quite a while since I last contributed to this wonderful blog, but sometimes life gets in the way and you have to prioritize what is important, etc. Sort of like the Mets and the pending roster needs that Billy Eppler and Co. will be tasked with as the 2022 season winds down and we start the "hot stove" season.
The other writers on this blog have done an excellent job of detailing who will be a free agent and what the team should do about them. However, sometimes a decision is so important that it deserves an extra look or additional consideration. In this case, I am referring to the "800 pound gorilla in the room", also know as Jacob DeGrom.
Whether Jake stays or goes is really up to him, as he has all of the leverage in this case due to a cleverly crafted opt out clause in his current contract (more on that is a second). But every other player decision, as well as the final state of the 2023 team payroll will pivot off of what happens with our long time ace.
There seems to be two distinct schools of thought currently circulating in the media and amongst Mets' fans as a whole. The first is that Jake is the heart and soul of the team and he should be retained at all costs. Steve Cohen spends more on a piece of art for his collection then it would cost to retain Jake, right?
The alternate view is that Jake's best years are behind him and the team has so many needs that the money should be spread around instead of concentrated on a single player.
Which view is correct? I suppose the truth lies somewhere in the middle, as an old friend used to say whenever I sought advice to assist in making a difficult decision. Let's review Jake's history with the Mets, to see if that helps.
In nine seasons (2014-2022), Jake produced the following;
209 Starts - 43.8 WAR - 1326 IP - 1607 K - 0.998 WHIP - 82 Wins (57 losses)
Rookie of the Year (2014)
2 Cy Young Awards (along with four other top ten finishes)
5 All Star Games
So, what's the holdup in keeping this guy again?
Unfortunately, when most players get a long term deal, they are getting paid for "what they have done", instead of what they will likely produce going forward. Yes, Jake was probably underpaid for the level of performance that he provided the team (roughly 117 million dollars to date), but that's also the nature of the collective bargaining agreement.
Another point of view would be that over his nine seasons, Jake averaged only 23 starts per year which is far below the 30 plus starts that you would expect from an ace.
Some of that was due to the COVID shortened season, but most of it is due to the ugly fact that Jake has had some significant injury issues along the way. Especially the last two seasons where he made only 26 total starts which were mostly vintage Jake until the end of this past season where we started to see some cracks in the armor.
The truth is that Jake will be 35 years old in 2023 and to keep him in town, the team will likely have to match or exceed the contract that the team gave to Max Scherzer last year in both dollars and years. That is a LOT of money and payroll space for an excellent pitcher that has had performance and availability issues of late.
If you had to wager your own money, would you bet on Jake to deliver 20-25 quality starts per year over the next three or four years, or do you think he will continue to struggle with his health as he reaches his mid to late 30's?
You can see the dilemma, right?
Putting personal feelings aside, I think keeping Jake would be a bad decision in the long run. I don't see him providing enough value for what it will cost to retain his services. Injury issues usually don't get any better as a person ages and Jake can't help the team from the disabled list.
I think the team would be better served by addressing the multiple vacancies in the rotation and the bullpen with the money that it would take to sign Jake. That might sound like blasphemy, but you have to focus on the future and not what happened in the past if you are Billy Eppler.
In the end, all of this may not matter as the decision will be Jake's and who knows what he wants.
So, what would you do?
14 comments:
Morning Mike
I have warmed on Jake since the season ended. Too much fan emphasis on the late homers given up and not the late strikeouts thrown.
But his age... and the age of our starters did hurt us this past season.
If I was Eppler, and had the green light, I would offer Jake 45mil a year for 3 years, and throw mad money at Rodon. These two, plus Max, could carry our rotation into the 2023-24 influx of team controlled starters in our chain
Mike, welcome back to the writing roster. Whether to sign Jake or not is a factor in how far over the cap Steve Cohen wants to go, and some concern that he could migrate to a team like, oh, Philadelphia.
That's what they pay the big boys for, to make those kind of mistakes err I mean decisions. My bad.
I hear Mack signed you long term at the same salary Reese and I get, and we're good with that :)
Actually he has an AAV of a buck
Its time for me to ask for more money
We need to keep Jake and go after Rodon as Mack suggests.
Let him walk! Even if he pulls a Verlander he’ll only earn his contract. As long as they spend the money elsewhere all is good.Nimmo,one of the free agent SSs, a second tier starter or two.40 million ayear is a big nut.
This team has to stop throwing away their history.
What Jake has done equals what Tom Seaver did in his day and that alone deserves a different fate.
30+ year old signings don’t work out. Wright and Reyes didn’t earn theirs. For everyone that works you can probably find three that didn’t.
3 yrs for one of the current top 5 pitchers in the game isn't a stretch
Welcome back Mike...I get the life and priorities part of this. I have not been able to do the writing I'd like to this year - hope to get back to it soon.
As I read through your piece, I thought "yup, he really nailed that", and I still think you did. I then read Mack's comments and also totally agree with them.... Head scratching..so it leads me to toe conclusion that $45m for 3 years is about right..I think there has to be a cap there though and they can't get into a bidding war for anything over 3 years and anything over $140m total
Thanks...good piece!
Mack, as long as they have his contract well-insured. If I am Cohen, and I sign Jake, and he turns out to be as unavailable as Cespedes was after he inked his 4 year deal, and all of Jake's $$ is luxury tax-inducing, I'd be upset. I know everyone felt burned when Yo inked the big deal but never seemed to be able to suit up.
As weird as it might seem, the Mets would have been better off having Michael Wacha last year than Jake. Healthy can be better than wealthy.
It's a tough one, for sure.
I would say I am 60/40 in favor of him leaving, but I can see Mack's point, as well.
"Second Generation" contracts usually don't age well, but I knew we would get say 75 starts from Jake over a three year deal, I might change my stance. But, history isn't kind to that projection and I think we would regret a three year deal before the time period was over.
If not Jake, then they need to add a couple decent starters.....Rodon is interesting, but his injury history is nothing to take lightly.
Mike has a great article. Mack has a great proposal.
In my view, both win.
Mack's idea would be powerful for the Mets - Having Jake and Rodon on the staff along with Scherzer and anyone else we can retain would be powerful.
However, Jake opted out for one reason - to get paid for being the best pitcher in baseball before 2020. He won't accept 3 years at $45M because someone else (not Philly - they will sign Verlander since he speaks their native language) will sign him for much more money.
This is where Mike's wisdom applies. You can't offer him much more than that and do anything with our current roster. So when you don't, he goes elsewhere, and you still go after Rodon, you still give Diaz whatever it takes, and you try to address your other FAs.
Last thought
The Mets first pick has been dropped to 1.32 due to luxury tax issues
I don't think an QOs would get them a first round pick either
DeGrom has great fundamentals and is a perfect pitcher. Sign him and he will stay healthy. Show him love with the extra year, but have him show love too.
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