Mike's Mets - (In)Credible Sources

 

By Mike Steffanos

Wait... what? Now Jacob deGrom doesn't hate New York?

Remember earlier this summer when baseball pundits were tripping over each other to breathlessly report another rumor about where Jacob deGrom really wants to pitch next year? ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted: "There is a perception in some corners of the industry that if Jacob deGrom follows through with what he said in the spring and opts out of his Mets' contract, the Braves will be the favorites to land him." SNY's Andy Martino assured us that Olney's tweet constituted a "highly credible report." Martino reinforced that with some vague prattle about Georgia being closer to Florida, and even more ambiguous rumors that Jake "does not seem to enjoy the extra attention that comes with playing [in New York]."

I'm no baseball "insider" — a title SNY incessantly bestows upon anyone they hand a microphone — but I felt like Olney's "highly credible report" was pretty much bullsh*t. I documented why in my post back in July. I felt then, as I do now, that deGrom might find a suitor willing to go farther in years and dollars than the Mets were inclined to go, but it was quite unlikely to be Atlanta for reasons I outlined in that piece.

Sure enough, in a piece for The Athletic last week. Ken Rosenthal noted:

... Two other things that are highly unlikely for the Braves: The signing of deGrom or a shortstop other than Dansby Swanson ... No player currently with the Braves will earn more than $22 million over the course of his contract, seemingly creating the flexibility for a major expenditure. But the Braves are reluctant to enter into a deal with any player who takes up too high a percentage of their payroll, knowing in future seasons the salaries of their young players will rise.

The idea that the Braves would be "reluctant to enter into a deal with any player who takes up too high a percentage of their payroll" was the gist of my argument back in July, but what did I know? One thing has become apparent in the months since Olney's tweet: no one really had a clue precisely what deGrom was thinking, other than Jake himself and the people closest to him. But there is no shortage of folks in the media willing to fill that void of knowledge by taking their anonymously-sourced speculation and presenting it as fact.

Flash forward to the present, and now we are hearing different reports on what Jacob deGrom wants. For instance, in an article in the New York Post last week, Mike Puma reports:

The Mets have received enough indications from deGrom's camp, according to a source, that they believe the two-time Cy Young award winner wants to stay, provided there isn't a significant discrepancy in offers.

But why would Jacob deGrom prefer to stay when all we've read and heard in the media was very much the opposite? From Puma's piece again:

A source said deGrom places a high value on winning and believes the Mets have reached a place at which they can compete for the World Series regularly. DeGrom has also told teammates past and present — as The Post has reported — that he is happy playing for the Mets.

Look, there is definitely a chance that another team goes a bit crazy and offers deGrom a contract that goes beyond where the Mets feel comfortable, even with Steve Cohen signing the checks. There are rumors that the Texas Rangers are willing to go way beyond other clubs to secure deGrom. While I do understand that could happen, I also ask myself how a team with the Rangers' payroll could justify the risk involved in signing deGrom to that type of contract. We've seen over the years that almost anything is possible with a free agent contract, but, given Cohen's money and stated desire to keep deGrom along with deGrom's reported preference to stay, I would have to think the odds are at least better than 50-50 that deGrom stays.

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