Tom Brennan - Duda: Peek at Mark Vientos' Future? And BUNTING

Occasionally, quiet Lucas Duda would flash a smile.

Man, did I love to write about Lucas Duda.  The Big Lebowski.

I was always of the opinion he could have done better, had he swung more early and often, much more than he did.

He seemingly was Pete Alonso without the Alonso Fire.  The Fire is jet fuel to a power hitter's career.  Lucas was often an enigma to me.

But that is not what this is about.

Lucas was a big time lefty power guy who hit righties very well and lefties far less well.

Mark Vientos in his teenage days

Mark Vientos is a big time righty power guy who hit lefties very well and righties less well. 

Some folks were less than impressed with the Vientos 6 for 36 MLB debut in 2022.

My brother was one.

But...Vientos was thrown right in the pressure cooker of a VERY tight pennant race, so I think he was tentative more than anything.  Maybe overthinking.  And his 6 for 36 was accompanied by 5 BBs and just 12 Ks, not a bad intro K rate for a kid jumping from the minors right into a pennant skirmish.

Lucas, when he came up, exuded nervousness to my eyes.  He was 1 for his first 33, and then....16 for his last 51 in that 2010 campaign.

The next year, seemingly more nerves.  He started out 5 for 36, and then...he exploded, going 83 for his next 269 at bats, a .309 clip with plenty of doubles and a handful of homers.

I personally think that this could be a blueprint for Vientos in 2023.  He got his 2022 jitters out of the way.  And I'd be surprised if he didn't start slowly in 2023, majors or minors.  Why?  Well, he started slow for about 5 weeks in 2021 and 4 weeks in 2022, then caught fire both times.

I see no reason to believe the same pattern won't follow in 2023, a bit of a slow start, then HRs flying.

While Lucas and Vientos have similarities in power and (severe) lack of base-stealing acumen, Lucas fanned at a lower rate in the minors (which could be due to being older than Mark at the same stage in the minors, and just a general ability for today's minor league pitchers to fan more hitters), but also homered at a lower rate.  

Both are 6'4".  Lucas was listed far heavier, but my guess is Vientos' stat page is wrong at listing him at 185...he looked 210 to me.

Lucas in the minors? .279/.375/.457.

I prefer to compare that slash line to Mark's last 2 seasons, because prior to 2021, his at bats were as a developing teenager.   

Vientos .281/.355/.545.  34 doubles and 49 HRs in 688 at bats.  Better than Duda.  And Mark seemingly demonstrated a somewhat higher willingness to swing for the big fly rather than try to work out walks.

And...at Vientos' age in 2022, Duda was still in A ball at the same age.

Personally, I think Vientos will overcome his tentativeness and be smacking more big flies than Lucas did, over the same period of at bats.

I think another comp would be to Wilmer Flores, but Wilmer was a better hitter for average than Vientos and fanned less, but while he had decent power, he clearly was at a lower power output level.

I would tell Vientos this: 

Don't be tentative. You will succeed.  You will hit with a lot of power.  Just be aggressive on swinging at strikes.  Walks are nice.  HRs are a lot nicer.  The walks will naturally increase when pitchers fear your ability to put up large HR #'s.

BUNTING CAN BE BENEFICIAL

The Phillies led the World Series 2-1, then got no hit.  In game 5, they trailed 3-1 entering the 8th. Before you know it, 3-2, men on 1st and 3rd, and Ryan Presley (78 Ks in 58 innings) comes in to pitch to bigly bearded Brandon Marsh - the chances of the Phluffies improbably winning the Series hanging in the balance.

3 swings at 3 sliders, take a seat, Mr. Swishing Big Beard. Then the dangerous Kyle Schwarber hit a hard grounder right down to the first base line, right at the first baseman, and maybe that first baseman isn't hugging the line if there was just one out. But an out is an out, and the inning ended with the Phillies trailing 3-2.  The Astros won 3-2, and lead the series 3-2.

I wondered, watching the bigly bearded one, why he did not try to.... 

BUNT!!!

Drop down a bunt on one of those low sliders, and it would be hard to keep that runner from 3rd tying the score.  Tie the score, maybe the Phils win the game and go up 3-2, instead of trailing 3 games to 2, leaving them in grave danger.

Why no bunt?  After all, a bunt puts a ball in play.

The bunt is, I suppose, out of style.  Even if it costs you a World Series.

I wrote this following (blue) article in 2018.  Notice that the 5 speedster Mets prospects I list, none of whom used the bunt as a speed-aided weapon, are all long gone.

This nearly 5 year old article shows a bit of the value of the bunt.

Not all that many years past, Brett Butler compiled a startling 42 bunt base hits in a single season.  And 185 in his career.

What a drag, you might say, but not me...I love bunting.   

I hang bunting around at Christmas, too, for just that reason.   Bunting Love.

Mostly a non-Met, Butler played one partial season - very well - for the Mets in 1995, all of 90 games.

He hit .311/.382/.393 and stole 21 bases.  16 BUNT BASE HITS IN 90 GAMES! 

Whenever he bunted for a base hit, I loved to say: 

"THE BUTLER DID IT!"

Somehow, however, the bunt has fallen into disfavor generally - but that does not mean that an individual speedster can't expand the bunt-for-a-hit approach in their games.   

Bunting has 3 benefits for the super-speedy: 1) I read it usually has about a 40% success rate for a skilled speedster, while also raising the bunter's batting average, 2) pulling the infield in, making it easier to sneak grounders through the infield, and 3) making a hitter's high strikeout rate look better.

Bunting is macho, too: 

Heck, I read Mickey Mantle bunted for a hit 87 times!!

From what I recall, he had a bunt triple once!!

Brett Butler was a speedster who also sacrificed guys over and stole a whole lot.  558 steals, caught 257 (68%), and 147 sac bunts.  The man sure used his speed to maximum advantage.

Buddy Harrelson, a Mets lightweight who used his legs for steals and bunt hits plenty of times; he maxed his skills, too, by adding bunting to his repertoire.

Who are guys in the Mets minors who I think should bunt a lot?

CHAMP STUART: career .204 hitter in AA who has stolen 153 of 175 attempts (87%).  The bunt could be a real difference maker for the super-speedster.

PATRICK BIONDI: career .235 above A ball, but 134 of 180 in career steals (74%).  

TONY DIMINO: 528 career ABs, .311, 25-35 in steals (72%)

JACOB ZANON: 503 career ABs, .225, 56-66 in steals (85%).

GENE CONE: 617 career ABs, .234, 19 of 26 in steals (73%).

All 5 have demonstrated little power, but good speed, and only Dimino has hit well (although he is off to a slow start in 2018)...

So one equalizer seems to be frequent bunting for base hits.  The equalizer to make the difference between a big league career and never making it, perhaps.

BUNT!