It is very difficult to be in mid-August and be talking about next year already, but the reality has set in that the Mets are not going to make the playoffs and are not even likely to end up above .500. The team continues to underperform despite multiple permutations of the lineup, call-ups, send-downs, and every other move that a GM or manager can make.
But since we are talking about next year, this post is intended to lay out the information for your consideration that is probably already on Billy Eppler’s white board. The current 40-man roster does not have very many players that are signed to long term deals, so the front office has their work cut out for them over the next few months. They are going to have to determine who gets a chance at redemption next year, who will be trade bait for the reconstruction of the pitching staff, and who is going to left for some other team’s reclamation project.
Players on the 40-man roster that are not on the 26 are generally young guys being protected so I will focus on the 26. Billy has to worry about all of them and then some.
Players on the 26-man roster under long term (over 3 years) deals:
Francisco Lindor (through 2031); Brandon Nimmo (through 2030); Kodai Senga (through 2027); Edwin Diaz (through 2027)
Players on the 26-man roster under short term (1-3 years) deals:
Jeff McNeil (through 2026); Starling Marte (through 2025); Omar Narvaez (through 2024); Jose Quintana (through 2024); Brooks Raley (through 2024); Adam Ottavino (through 2024).
Players on the 26-man roster under club control through at least 2024:
Pete Alonso; Francisco Alvarez; Brett Baty; Mark Vientos; Luis Guillorme; Brooks Raley; Drew Smith; Tylor Megill; David Peterson; Trevor Gott; Grant Hartwig; Phil Bickford; Rafael Ortega; Tim Locastro, Danny Mendick; Arauz; DJ Stewart
The baby Mets (Alvarez, Baty, Vientos) are under team control for a long while so there are no pending decisions to be made. But that still leaves a host of players with decisions coming.
Clearly the Mets need to make a deal with Pete Alonso before the 2024 season starts. That is his last arbitration year and it does not make any sense to try to sign him once he becomes a free agent. Pete has been not only the most productive player, but is also a huge fan draw which is important to those that pay the salaries.
Guillorme had an outstanding 2022 season but had struggled in 2023 before being sent down and then was injured. His defensive skills alone make him a valuable asset that should not be lost. Decisions on extending Quintana, Raley, Narvaez, and Ottavino will be tougher.
Quintana has looked good in limited innings – can he be an innings eater worth extending now that he is healthy? Does Narvaez have a role beyond 2024 as a backup catcher that he can accept? And how about the Megill/Peterson duo who held such promise just a couple years ago but now just can’t seem to find their groove?
There are many difficult decisions ahead for the front office. They are particularly difficult this year because of the underperformers. Do you fix your own problems, or let them move and take on someone else’s problems? This is where talent evaluation and player development play such an important role. The Mets have been building these organizations, but the evidence does not show proof they have arrived.
If you were GM for a day, what are your priorities?
18 comments:
I love the deadline selling but come winter it's time Mets start packaging some prospects for controllable mlb talent to fill the 26man roster IMO.
Dove has a point.
These is enough talent in the system right now to survive a couple of hits
Me?
I think my number one priority would be to permanently remove all the people in the clubhouse that have turned things sour in there.
Yamamoto should be signed. Edwin should return. Build around that. It would take a miracle to dethrone the Braves in 2024, so shoot solidly for a wild card slot.
Tom as always I agree Senga Yamamoto and Q is a solid start with Mister ED in the BP. Big question is: is Pete part of the problem in the dugout or not? Last night on ESPN they made a point of saying he isn't. ESPN is hellbent on talking about and showing everything but the game. I'm waiting for them to mic up the ballboy or a peanut vendor next. LOL I think they were shocked last night with a mic on CF Harris and his answer when asked about what he bought first with his money he paused and said nothing really he already had a car.
Gary
Only the Mets know who is problem but reporters let inside the clubhouse at the end.of each game can get a whiff at that stench.
It was very easy in my day to smell that coming from Ollie and Beltran
I think the rumors about a clubhouse problem are just pure speculation. People are grasping at straws to explain why such a good team can lose so much. It doesn't have to be a clubhouse problem but they don't have anymore injuries than any other team and they seemed to have decent coaching last year, so why not take a wild guess? I'll tell you why not - it is not fair to the players, especially Pete who take a lot of pride in what they do. Yeah, they're not happy because as Cohen said, it's all on them. That's worth breaking a helmet or two but it's not a clubhouse problem. Sign Pete, keep Quintana, bring in Yamamoto, work on the upcoming prospects, and let's get this behind us.
Paul has a point.
Reporters are leaches
If they saw this they would suck the blood out of it to beat the other bugs with tomorrow's story
All of those decisions should be made by David Stearns.
+1
Toxic clubhouse? Don’t buy it! Bad team, no hitting, poor BP,injured starters. Old teams fall apart, and the new rules probably made them older.
Interesting stuff, this time of the season.
A lot of good starter arms available on the FA List. My advice here, be careful because once again it will be huge contractually in duration and salary, and we don't need anymore longterm/dead-end signings to older arms 30+ in age. So be wise here.
Could also work two trades for the starters Mets need in 2024.
Wheels here maybe too.
But he is 30+ and his contract would have to be kept shorter. I like the guy a lot and was sorry to see him go. His pitching mechanics always impressed me from the very get-go here. Might be a nice addition here for 2024. Because his mechanics were always so smooth, he might go longer than most in age at a high level of performance.
I sort of like lefty starter Shane McClanahan (26) Tampa Bay at current, very solid stats/reasonable money contract. And then there is an interesting lefty starter on Baltimore right now, John Means (age 26). Reasonable contract but missed all of 2023 (so far) with a back sprain after having had TJ surgery in 2022. Was an All Star starter in '21. Not expensive a risk here at all to take.
Really do your injury and stat research homework first in considerable depth. But both are really good lefty starters, and might suit well in the one and three slots here in 2024.
That would give these 2024 NY Mets three starters McClanahan, Means, Senga, and possibly also Quintana for the 2024 rotation. Then the final two slots (because it is the time for a six-man rotation people, my God already) would quite possibly come from the Mets MiLB list here of 4-5 good young starters all from within. Well done on that! Smart depth for quite sometime.
The Boo-Birds are slowly starting to fly away. Thank goodness. It's all about 2024 now, and I am looking forward to it greatly.
A word on HR hitters.
The 3-6 batting order is vital, providing the team has a one and two that can get on base a lot. 3-6 is the heart of the order and requires two things really. 1. Guys who can hit with power and drive the ball. 2. Guys who can hit at least a .250 BA. Thirty homeruns and a low BA isn't really a good thing in the 4 and 5 slot. You have to have batters that can hit .250 BA+. Have to. I like that Mark Vientos is starting to seriously groove himself into the bigs now batting. He would make a perfect 6 slot batter in 2024 I think. Kudos to Mark lately. We all knew he had it in him. It was an obvious thing. I also think that Brett Baty will groove in come 2024. Then we will have two really good younger batters in the same one batting order.
I think in short time that C Francisco Alvarez can be a consistent season to season BA hitter. Pete Alonso has been that here already as a NY Met. But he has to get consistent season to season since he is so counted on with this order.
With these two (Alonso and Alvarez) in the four and five slots, it puts more importance on the three and six slot batters. I miss David Wright a lot. He isn't too old yet either to come back, but that hip thing showed up with him I guess. To me he was the perfect guy for this three spot in 2024. How fast can he get a son of his ready for here (Mets) is my only question. But a David Wright batter is necessary with Pete and Francisco in the 4 and 5. I don't feel that Francisco Lindor is the same thing as a David Wright would be in the three slot. He's good and everything, but we need more consistency here. It may take someone new in 2024 to get this.
There's always the chicken/egg question-- does bad chemistry cause losing or does losing cause bad chemistry?
I remember the days of the "Bronx Zoo", and the Oakland "dynasty" of the 70s.
Bad chemistry didn't seem to hurt them.
Before the season, I looked forward to extending Pete. Now I'm not so sure. I'd wait to see if he returns to his pre-2023 form instead of his Dave Kingman clone. We can extend him in mid-season if he earns that, or even outbid everyone after the season. But if he doesn't show improvement and Vientos does, it may be time to make way for the new generation.
Starting next summers. I like Acuna and Gilbert as table setters with a renewed McNeil as # 3. Follow that up with Alonso, Lindor and Alvarez. Vientos, Mauricio and Marte or Nimmo as bottom three. Sorry, forgot about Baty. McNeil would need to be moved.
I do like the “new” Lindor. When interviewed before his MRI, very mature veteran…no weird hair. focus is always on baseball, but the steady, non-flamboyant look is what he and the team needs
Vientos? What on Earth would make anyone think he could replace Alonso? I’m thinking he’s not even going to be a ML player.
Possible future replacements for Pete are Clement or Parada.
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