8/22/23

Tom Brennan - Be in the Top 10 to Win in 2024


How are 11 thru 30 doing? Not good, so be Top 10 in 2024.

Whoops. I accidentally deleted my article for today, so here’s a different one:

Without in-depth analysis, my supposition is that if the Mets finished 10th in runs scored, 10th in runs allowed, and 10th in bullpen ERA, the team would be formidable in terms of reaching the playoffs.

So far (through August 19), they’ve scored 537 runs, allowed 578 runs a minus 41), and have a mediocre pen ERA of 4.51.

If they were 10th in each category, they’d have 586 runs scored, 518 runs allowed (a +68), and a pen ERA of 4.04.

That in 2024 won’t beat out the Braves, who have 706 runs scored (#1), a #2 494 runs allowed (a +212), and a #3 pen ERA of 3.43, but it would be good for a Mets Wild Card. 

Forget winning the division in 2024. Only massive Braves injuries might open that door.

That Mets wild card scenario would work for me, and should be a good and realistic target macro for Steve Cohen and company next year, while pivoting younger, and hopefully being talented to go toe-to-toe with the Braves by perhaps 2026.

Hopefully, this article rates a 10. Have a top 10 day.

But…before I go…you sometimes find quality in unexpected places. 

DJ Stewart has 5 HRs in 6 games, and was flat-out robbed of a 6th on Sunday.  THAT is hitting.

Maybe, just maybe, he can be a Kyle Schwarber type at a deep discount for the Mets in 2024. 

Of course, let’s see how the rest of his 2023 goes first.

And Rafael Ortega is a AAAAA guy who deserves to play somewhere in the bigs in 2024.  Maybe the Mets.

BUT…

Hint to Rafael…how has Mark Canha played in the bigs more than you? One reason? He drove up his OBP with a lot of HBPs. You’ve been hit 5 times in 1,217 career PAs, while Canha has gotten plunked at a nearly 10X higher rate, 118 times in 3,402 PAs. It hurts…but it helps that OBP. Canha’s career OBP on HBP alone is .035, yours is .004.

And you’ve still got some stolen base speed. Get on, create havoc, make it happen. Get hit. Get paid.

Lastly, the Mets’ two DSL teams had 23 runs and 29 hits last night. Of course, naturally, and to no one’s surprise, as the offense explodes, the season is coming to an end there.

WILD CARD: the skewered Mets are just 6.5 out of a wild card…and they are HITTING. The teams above them are mediocre. Bizarre, huh?

14 comments:

Mack Ade said...

DSL Christopher Larez suspendef.for substance abuse

Mack Ade said...

I think what Stewart has done this season is admirable.

20+ home runs this season so far combined AAA/MLB stats

Still it is hard for me to think of him more than a utility outfielder next season

Tom Brennan said...

Mack I agree, DJ Stewart can be a 4th outfielder. And DH. Look at home many plate appearances DV has gotten this year, all the while under-performing.

Tom Brennan said...

Lara trending up, Larez clearly trending down.

Rds900 said...

Can DJ be our new Vogelbach.

Gary Seagren said...

Add Ohtani and Yamamoto with Diaz coming back and we're in the wild card at least. If we don't get Ohtani I'd go for Snell and Bellinger because I see Marte as a 5th OFer only because we owe him $$$.

Mack Ade said...

I have this feeling that Yamamoto is already on Cohen’s pocket

Tom Brennan said...

Signing Senga, and having him succeed, really helps in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. If the Wilpons were still owners, no chance. Too much $$$.

Tom Brennan said...

Ray, I address your question tomorrow.

Paul Articulates said...

Top 10 is a low bar to set. With this team's history, that is understandable. But a mere wildcard and early playoff exit will be another disppointment. This team needs to learn how to win consistently.

Tom Brennan said...

Paul, I agree. For 2024, I’d settle for the Top 10 approach. After that, top 5.

TexasGusCC said...

Paul, it is exactly that which made the sell off necessary. As is, the Mets were going to consistently be a wild card team without the talent necessary to become the Dodgers, which was Cohen’s goal. They punted this year, and may even sneak in, but the goal got a little closer.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, solid hitting prospects, fingered crossed that Mets will generate sufficient effective MLB pitchers.

Anonymous said...

I think we have our 2024 DH And LFer. Stwart and Ortega have done a lot lately.