Whoops. I accidentally deleted my article for today, so here’s a different one:
Without in-depth analysis, my supposition is that if the Mets finished 10th in runs scored, 10th in runs allowed, and 10th in bullpen ERA, the team would be formidable in terms of reaching the playoffs.
So far (through August 19), they’ve scored 537 runs, allowed 578 runs a minus 41), and have a mediocre pen ERA of 4.51.
If they were 10th in each category, they’d have 586 runs scored, 518 runs allowed (a +68), and a pen ERA of 4.04.
That in 2024 won’t beat out the Braves, who have 706 runs scored (#1), a #2 494 runs allowed (a +212), and a #3 pen ERA of 3.43, but it would be good for a Mets Wild Card.
Forget winning the division in 2024. Only massive Braves injuries might open that door.
That Mets wild card scenario would work for me, and should be a good and realistic target macro for Steve Cohen and company next year, while pivoting younger, and hopefully being talented to go toe-to-toe with the Braves by perhaps 2026.
Hopefully, this article rates a 10. Have a top 10 day.
But…before I go…you sometimes find quality in unexpected places.
DJ Stewart has 5 HRs in 6 games, and was flat-out robbed of a 6th on Sunday. THAT is hitting.
Maybe, just maybe, he can be a Kyle Schwarber type at a deep discount for the Mets in 2024.
Of course, let’s see how the rest of his 2023 goes first.
And Rafael Ortega is a AAAAA guy who deserves to play somewhere in the bigs in 2024. Maybe the Mets.
BUT…
Hint to Rafael…how has Mark Canha played in the bigs more than you? One reason? He drove up his OBP with a lot of HBPs. You’ve been hit 5 times in 1,217 career PAs, while Canha has gotten plunked at a nearly 10X higher rate, 118 times in 3,402 PAs. It hurts…but it helps that OBP. Canha’s career OBP on HBP alone is .035, yours is .004.
And you’ve still got some stolen base speed. Get on, create havoc, make it happen. Get hit. Get paid.
Lastly, the Mets’ two DSL teams had 23 runs and 29 hits last night. Of course, naturally, and to no one’s surprise, as the offense explodes, the season is coming to an end there.
WILD CARD: the skewered Mets are just 6.5 out of a wild card…and they are HITTING. The teams above them are mediocre. Bizarre, huh?
14 comments:
DSL Christopher Larez suspendef.for substance abuse
I think what Stewart has done this season is admirable.
20+ home runs this season so far combined AAA/MLB stats
Still it is hard for me to think of him more than a utility outfielder next season
Mack I agree, DJ Stewart can be a 4th outfielder. And DH. Look at home many plate appearances DV has gotten this year, all the while under-performing.
Lara trending up, Larez clearly trending down.
Can DJ be our new Vogelbach.
Add Ohtani and Yamamoto with Diaz coming back and we're in the wild card at least. If we don't get Ohtani I'd go for Snell and Bellinger because I see Marte as a 5th OFer only because we owe him $$$.
I have this feeling that Yamamoto is already on Cohen’s pocket
Signing Senga, and having him succeed, really helps in the Yamamoto sweepstakes. If the Wilpons were still owners, no chance. Too much $$$.
Ray, I address your question tomorrow.
Top 10 is a low bar to set. With this team's history, that is understandable. But a mere wildcard and early playoff exit will be another disppointment. This team needs to learn how to win consistently.
Paul, I agree. For 2024, I’d settle for the Top 10 approach. After that, top 5.
Paul, it is exactly that which made the sell off necessary. As is, the Mets were going to consistently be a wild card team without the talent necessary to become the Dodgers, which was Cohen’s goal. They punted this year, and may even sneak in, but the goal got a little closer.
Gus, solid hitting prospects, fingered crossed that Mets will generate sufficient effective MLB pitchers.
I think we have our 2024 DH And LFer. Stwart and Ortega have done a lot lately.
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