Reese Kaplan -- How Much Salary is Pete Alonso Worth?

We already discussed the prospect of the Mets trading away Pete Alonso during this offseason to net a haul rather than risk losing him for draft pick compensation in his free agent walk when the 2024 season ends.  Today let's look at the other side of the equation and try to ascertain what it would take to sign Alonso to a long term deal.

The first question people need to assess is whether Pete Alonso is a modern day Carlos Delgado with a bit more power and a bit more RBI capability while hitting in the .265 range, or is he more of a grander and powerful all-or-nothing Dave Kingman.  Which belief you have dictates how much money you think he's worth.

Now money is a subject that is still a bit hard to understand given the depth of the Steve Cohen coffers.  Obviously he is capable of spending for whomever he wants at rates above and beyond what the market might otherwise dictate.  However, as 2023 proved, spending big doesn't equate with winning big.  So what is Alonso's true worth?

If you go strictly by the back of the baseball card numbers, there's no denying his effectiveness as a home run hitter and RBI machine.  The Mets in the past had an odd season here and there with big numbers from Mike Piazza or Darryl Strawberry and others but no one put together the plateaus consistently the way Alonso has.  Yes, his defense isn't going to remind anyone of Keith Hernandez and his baserunning speed is perhaps only better than Daniel Vogelbach.  

Then there's the marketing force he represents for the Mets.  Since Piazza have the Mets had a player that other clubs actually feared when he stepped into the batter's box?  The fact that the Home Run Derby back-to-back champion can send long balls over the fence against any pitcher in any ballpark is quite real and having someone who is the best at what he does counts more for selling tickets, merchandise and building fan loyalty than wins and losses do.  As a result, trading away this level of star magnitude is a dangerous thing to consider.

Still, when you evaluate what he delivers and what he should earn, the numbers are high but not nearly as bad as you would have originally thought.  If you pull up comparables for some of the baseball stars in the game, you'd be looking at Matt Olson against whom he is vying for the National League home run title.  Olsen signed an eight year deal for $168 million which works out to $21 million per season.  For comparison's sake, you're now paying in  a lopsided contract that amount to Starling Marte.  I think the Braves got the better end of that expenditure.

Another approach could be to look at others in the league who have gotten more like Kris Bryant.  In his case you're paying more for positional versatility than you are for one solid offensive tool.  Again you can evaluate WAR numbers and come up somewhere in the same range.  

Now some folks would instead use Mike Trout as a comparable because he's a Home Run and RBI leader year after year.  His contract may in fact prevent Arte Moreno from extending Shohei Ohtani as he earns $426 million over the course of 12 years.  That's a $35 million per year average.  Pete Alonso is not Mike Trout.  He doesn't play a stellar outfield nor does he steal a great many bases while hitting north of .300.  

So if we assume $35 million is the upper limit and $21 million is the lower limit, at Alonso's age a 7-8 year deal might be the best you could offer.  If you suggested $25 million per season for 8 years, that would be $200 million.  Would that get it done?  Think a minute...Francisco Lindor earns $34 million per season on a longer deal, but remember he plays a premium defensive position and steals bases, things that don't apply to Alonso.

If you were Pete Alonso and the Mets offered up a $200 million deal would you take it or would you go out into free agency and test the waters?  Personally I think he would turn it down and if that's the case, I'd be peddling him before the 2024 season begins.  If you think he would take it then why has an offer not yet been made to the man during 2023? Frankly I think the club may get a bit more serious about exploring the trading block in ascertaining what they could get in a trade of Pete Alonso before ponying up a much higher AAV for a contract.