Trade Grades by David Jacks

  

    This isn't how anyone foresaw the Mets 2023 trade deadline (I did, I always maintained the Mets would acquire Dominic Leone then trade him for a top 30 prospect, I SAID IT!). 

Yes there were concerns, the aces ages, needing one more bat, how they'd replace their stud closer, but 6 games out of the wildcard, not the division, THE WILDCARD is still stunning. So like it or not Steve Cohen decided to go all in (or all out in this case), and dump his chips in a sellers market, and beef up a once mediocre farm system. 

Max Scherzer spoke with Steve Cohen this weekend, and allegedly he told him they are looking to 2025 at the earliest as their next push to win. And with that, the no trade clauses were rescinded and the ancient aces were gone. Sidenote - I find it hard to believe that Cohen will sit idly by as pitchers like Ohtani and Yamamoto are up for grabs this off-season, but we shall soon see. 

In one of the biggest sell offs in Mets history there were enough trades to break them down, and grade them by category. 

The Heaveyweights

Rangers get: Max Scherzer and 36 million dollars (for 2023 and a portion of his 2024 opt in)

Mets get: Luisangel Acuna (ss/2b/cf)

As Cohen stated in an earlier press conference, if the Mets aren't competing he's willing to buy down player contracts to get better prospects in return, something the Wilpons wouldn't have dreamed of. This is where Mets fans are lucky to have the richest owner in the game, and in this case Acuna is the result. 

Like it or not Max's days as an ace are behind him. While he had an excellent 2022' he also missed a chunk of time due to injury, he never pitched into the 8th inning, and wilted in the biggest games of the year.  In 2024 he looked more like a 3/4 starter, still above league average, but his velocity was down across the board, his home run rate soared (23 in total to lead all NL pitchers) and his slider just ain't sliding no more. 

So when twitter, excuse me X was ablaze on Sunday it was shocking to see the prospect names being mentioned: Acuna, Walcott, Porter. These are some of the best prospects in the Rangers system. And that's what paying down a contract does for you. 

The Mets ended up with Luisangel Acuna (you might know his big bro Ronald) who immediately slotted in as the Mets #2 overall prospect according to MLB prospect rankings. At 21 years of age he was in AA for Texas, and was more than holding his own with an 830 ops and a whopping 42 stolen bases. 

At 5'8'' 181 pounds he does have some pop but it's unlikely he's anything more than a 15/20 homer player in the pros, if that. He's also 21 so there’s still room for growth, which could lead to more power but he seems to be more of a doubles threat. His glove could stick at SS but most likely he slides over to 2b. He has the athleticism to play center field but with Nimmo around that’s unlikely. Acuna’s ETA is late 2024/ early 25. 

Mets Grade:  A-  

To get a player of Acuna’s caliber for a starter with a +4 era and leading the league in HR's given up is a steal, even if his name is Scherzer and he's headed to the hall of fame. That said the Mets did send 36 million dollars over to the Rangers and without that this trade never happens. 

The other heavyweight card

Astros get - Justin Verlander - 35 million and half of his vesting option. 

Mets get - Drew Gilbert (of) and Ryan Clifford (of)

I didn’t give Max or Verlanders position. I’m NOT sorry about that.  

Justin Verlander ends up pitching 4 months for the Mets. In the future his brief stint will be nothing more than a trivia question. He wasn’t bad, in fact he’s been pretty hot lately, but he missed the start of the year with an injury, he has more walks then he did all of last year, his strikeout rate is his worst in a decade, his velocity has dipped and his hard hit rate against is sky high. 

Mets fans were clutching their pearls, fearing a non competitive 2024 without Verlander, and they may not be wrong, but if the 2023 season proved anything it was relying on old aces (even hall of famers) is a recipe for disaster. On top of it Verlander is showing all the signs of getting dangerously close to the cliff Max is already having off of. It may indeed affect 2024 but the first rule of hedge funds is: it's better to get out a year too early then two years too late. I made that up. I stand by it. 

So what did the declining ace and loads of cash get the Mets? According to MLP Prospect rankings Gilbert ranked as Houston’s  #1 and Clifford as their  #4. It should be noted that the Astros farm isn’t loaded, and Gilbert slotted in as the Mets #4 and Clifford as their #6. Still both prospects project as starters, with the higher potential upside being Clifford who has raw power. 

Gilbert, like Acuna, is on the smaller side 5’9’’ 195 pounds and isn’t a big home run threat (15-20 max) but he does barrel up balls and hit for a high contact rate. In center he has a plus arm (former pitcher) and flies all over the field. He reminds me of a Hunter Pence/ Lenny Dykstra  type, a guy who’s gonna give it his all and usually ends up being a fan favorite. 

Clifford is the more intriguing prospect in my eyes. He was an 11th round pick but teams shied away from him thinking he’d head back to Vanderbilt. The Astros paid him first/second round money to sign and he showed his worth in his first stint in pro ball. He ops’d 900 this year in high A and at 6’3’’ 200 pounds he has loads of raw power and a mature approach at the plate. If he can keep his K rate down and show that he can hit lefties (lefty bat) then he could become a very valuable piece as a corner outfielder by 2026. 

Mets Grade:  B+ 

I like both of these prospect but I do wonder if Gilbert ends up as a 4th OF and Clifford becomes the star of the trade (but that’s a big if at this point.) As I said earlier I don’t see how the Mets would have trusted a veteran ace AGAIN going into 2024, especially one who has worrisome underlying stats and will be turning 41.  

The middle weight division 

The Marlins Get: David Robertson (rp)

Mets get: Marco Vargas (ss) Ronald Hernandez (C) 

While this trade wasn’t nearly as big as the two above it was the catalyst that enraged a bad Mets team that didn’t seem to know they were bad. Once the Mets traded their 38 year old closer it seemed as though the dam broke and all the vets were washed away.  

The Mets shipped off yet another aging vet but this one was pitching extremely well. But what does a bad team need with an old closer on a one year deal? ANSWER ME!

In a sellers market many fans were expecting a top prospect close to major league ready, and in some ways that was a reasonable expectation. Robertson had just been traded for SP Ben Brown in 2022 and Brown was approaching AAA. But the Mets took a different approach. They took a shot on two very young prospects(18 and 19 years old respectively)  with higher ceilings who currently rank as the Mets #9  (Vargas) and #21 (Hernandez). 

Vargas is  a lefty bat who's been impressive early on with a near 900 ops in rookie ball, fringy speed and enough athleticism to stick at ss or 2b. His pro comp, if all goes well,  is Ozzie Albies.  Hernandez appears to be working diligently to stick at C and his bat has picked up in rookie ball where he is currently at a 928 ops in a small sample. 

Both players have a long runway before they get anywhere near the pros but this is the Mets taking a gamble that one day, one of these two might end up in their top 3. It’s a gamble worth taking when you’re selling off a host of players and you can find helium prospects (like these two) and ones closer to the pros. 

Mets grade: B+ 

I do think the Mets could have opted for a prospect higher up in the minors,  but this is the type of gamble that gives you a chance to hit it big. Instead of a solid back end guy they took the chance on two lottery picks.  Francisco Alvarez was also once a lottery pick and if it works out you’re suddenly adding a blue chip prospect for a rental. 

Brewers get: Mark Canha (of) and 3.5 million

Mets get: Justin Jarvis (sp) 

This one is simple,  Canha wasn’t in the Mets long term plans so once the dam broke the writing was on the wall. Canha was a solid if not unspectacular player for the Mets. He came to them in the free agent  frenzy of Marte/ Escobar/ Canha,  and no Met fan will ever forget his dominance over Philly and the two home runs he hit in their epic comeback last July, or was it August? I forget. 

The Mets needed depth in their pitching prospect pool and Jarvis will provide just that. Jarvis slots in as the Mets #15 rated prospect according to MLB and will report to AAA. Jarvis (23) projects as a back end starter who could be ready as early as next year. Jarvis has a sneaky fastball which sits at 94 but can get up to 96, a plus slider, and an average splitter. The Mets certainly needed some more options in their starting rotation and Jarvis gives them one. 

Mets Grade: B-

Most years I would give the Mets a higher grade for this move, but right handed bats were sparse in this market and the Mets paid down another salary. Jarvis is a decent prospect, and it’s a decent move. 

This category is the: I regret using a boxing category with Tommy Pham in the upcoming category

Diamondbacks get: Tommy Pham (of) and $1.7 million 

Mets get: Jeremy Rodriguez (ss) 

Pham like Canha was always going to be traded once the firesale started. A rental, Pham has posted above average hard hit rates for years but it hasn’t always translated to success. This year it sure has. Pham posted an 820 ops and at times was the Mets best hitter. Just think of how off the 2023 season has been that Tommy Pham, who most fans bemoaned upon his signing, ended up being Mets best hitter for a big chunk of the first half. Well anyway, it upped his value and allowed them a chance to get a prospect.  

Jeremy Rodriguez is another international signing, and another lottery ticket for the Mets. Maybe he cashes in, maybe he never gets to aa, but it’s worth a shot. Rodriguez was no slouch in the international signing pool, ranking 47th, and given a 1.25 million dollar signing bonus. He currently has a 751 ops with 12 steals in the DSL league. Rodriguez is not on the mets top 30 list yet, but he’s worth watching as he matures. 

Mets Grade: B+ 

Tommy Pham bringing in a prospect is pretty damn good after he was ignored by almost every team in the majors this offseason.

The Leightweights 

Angels get: Dominic Leone and cash

Mets get: Jeremiah Jackson 

This was was a surprise. The Mets signed Leone in May and he’s been....everything you’d think a May signing would be, absolutely fine. In recent weeks his velocity has picked up a tad and his been on a nice run, but overall he sports a 4.4 ERA and he’s been up and down, serving as a middle man, eating innings. The Angels may be looking for some lightning in a bottle but to give up one of their top 30 prospects was a bit surprising. 

Jackson (23) is in AA and was originally drafted by Billy Eppler in 2018 in the second round. Jackson has battled injuries and a high k rate. Still the ball jumps off his bat, when he makes contact, and he is a power threat. He’s also increased his versatility, playing 2b, SS, 3b and of. 

Mets Grade: A

Getting a warm body for Leone is surprising, getting one that has some potential is pretty shocking. Jackson may not make the pros but he has enough tools to take a chance on. 

Bantam weight. 

Mets get: Phil Bickford and Adam Kolarek. 

Dodgers get:  Some cheddar 

Bottom line, Mets took a chance on some DFA’d players. Bickford has a wicked heater but he throws it far too often (68%). He’s a guy worth taking flyer on, low risk, high reward. Kolarek was in the Mets minors for 5 years so there’s that. 

Grade - Yeah sure take a chance why not - I don't know is that a C? B?

All in all the deadline was one of the Mets biggest sell offs in their history. This is certainly not what Eppler and Cohen had in mind when building the 23’ team. In that way today was the culmination of an epic failure, but the Mets did do a great job turning those failed veteran pieces into blue chip prospects, lottery prospects and depth prospects. The Mets went from an average prospect pool into a top 10 pool in one weekend. Not too shabby.