Reese Kaplan -- The Offseason Record Setting Free Agent Bidding

(Written prior to Ohtani's UCL tear...now the complex question becomes even tougher!)

Read baseball coverage pretty much anywhere and you can't escape one of the favorite topics for writers, fans and baseball team owners.  Never before in the history of the game has a two-way baseball player been available who wasn't a freakish novelty such as power hitting pitchers getting late inning at-bats or strong armed offensive players cleaning up for an inning or two in lost cause blowouts.  

Then came Shohei Ohtani, currently the American League's top home run hitting threat ahead of Aaron Judge and possessing the park adjusted ERA lead for the junior circuit as a starting pitcher as well.  How in the world do you calculate what he's worth when free agency arrives at the close of the 2023 World Series?  

Well, cross referencing several sources it comes down to a major "it depends" kind of answer.  Is he going to deteriorate as a pitcher?  Will arm injuries force him into exclusive DH duty in the future?  Will arm, leg, hip, ankle or other injuries cause him to adjust his swing and render him less than the modern day Babe Ruth he appears to be?  Even if he manages to avoid major injuries, how long are you willing to gamble and pay for his hitting and pitching into the future?  This free agency bidding is surely going to crack records for Average Annual Value (AAV).

As an example, outfielder and hitter Aaron Judge signed a 9 year contract for $360 million, an AAV of $40 million.  Now $40 million salaries are nothing new to the New York Mets as they had two pitchers exceeding that level when 2023 began, but they were not going to be on the hook for 8 more seasons.  Still, that comparison is invalid because Judge is only a hitter while multi Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were only pitchers.  

So here we go again...do you evaluate Ohtani as a 29 year old slugger and pay him as a hitter alone?  If so, then the $40 to $45 million per year range is likely reasonable.  He might want that amount for 10 years or more, so a worst case scenario for the best DH in the game is $450 million

Now let's consider him only as a pitcher.  Forget the Scherzer/Verlander short term obligations and look instead to what pitchers of a similar age and pedigree get.  Given the shorter term trajectory for success due to injury probability and the need to adjust pitching style as velocity starts to diminish with age, you're probably looking at $36 million or thereabouts per year.  For a pitcher the duration limit might be about seven years.  So that would add up to $252 million.

Here's where we all remember how much we hated math class.  So is Ohtani a hitter, a pitcher or does he get paid market rate as both?  If you shortened the first contract to seven years to match what you'd expect him to deliver as a pitcher and then combine the figures for both roles, he'd be earning $80 million per season.  That is not a typo.  Seven years at $80 million per year would be a contract for $560 million.  Already that would be the highest ever total salary and AAV of any contract ever given by a very wide margin.

Of course, you're likely not paying for both rules as if they were two separate players.  Let's presume for a moment that you are able to whittle that figure down by 25% for a still eyeball popping $60 million per season.  Now the flip side of that discount is that he might demand a greater longevity.  If he pushed for two more years for a total of nine seasons at $60 million per year it would come to $540 million.  Saving $20 million is not exactly pocket change for a cold Coca Cola, but it's pretty minimal given the overall magnitude of the contract dollars involved.  He might even ask for a tenth year option at the same rate which would increase the payroll obligation from a worst case $560 million to $600 million.

The real underlying issue here is whether or not the Mets should be involved in this process.  My answer is yes, but not for the obvious reason of luring him to the east coast where he's expressed little interest in playing.  Steve Cohen is not exactly beloved by other team owners and his presence in the bidding frenzy would incentivize other clubs to overspend to secure Ohtani's long term services.  It is at that point when rumors of never before seen money being delivered to the top free agent, Cohen can smile sweetly and say, "Good luck to you.  He's the best of the best and deserves what you are willing to spend."  Then he should walk away.

Right now the Mets are not one player no matter how good he is from the next World Series contender.  Even if you consider him two players, could roughly $60 million per season be spent on other assets to deliver what they need?  

We've mentioned Yoshinobu Yamamoto as a good free agent pursuit.  He's five years younger and demonstrated even better pitching skills than Ohtani, so a discounted import from Japan (like Kodai Senga at $15 million per year) could be a better bet.  Suppose you offered up $150 million for seven years of Yamamoto from age 25 through age 32.  That's only a hair over $20 million per season and leaves you nearly $40 million to address other needs.  

On the farm you have some young hitters on the way up who might fulfill some of the offensive needs.  Or maybe you take some of that $40 million and use it to pursue some younger free agent starting pitchers since David Peterson, Tylor Megill nor Jose Butto appear to be major league ready for a contending team.  These options don't exist if you put all your eggs in the Ohtani basket.  Personally, I'm not ready to do that.