Everyone loves a top prospect.
It used to be that fans only fell in love with established stars. Well, that all changed when the internet brought on minor league junkies like me.
The Mets always send strange, conflicting signals when it comes to their top prospects. Top brass, like David Stearns, tell you that the team wants to hold onto their top prospects. I support this, especially since the team currently only have so many. But… and this is a big but… they don’t play them consistently when they graduate to the major league level.
Oh, all members of the Baby Mets had their moments last season, but only catcher Francisco Alvarez seems to have established himself. And that was done only after a decent amount of time that he wasn’t the starter behind the plate.
Brett Baty looked good in the beginning, Mark Vientos came along strong at the end, and Ronny Mauricio went through a period that he looked like he was going to compete for the Rookie Of The Year.
The key statement here was “play them consistently”. The Mets didn’t do that in 2023 so you really can’t hold anything against someone this young to the game.
Trust me on two points here.
1. The league is going to adjust to rookies far quicker than the reverse.
2. A high percentage of top prospects just don’t over perform in the beginning of their major league career.
If you don’t play your prospects, they then lose their confidence plus their trade value becomes harshly reduced. Teams say, hey… if they aren’t good enough for you to play them, why should we trade for them?
A few moments on winter ball and top prospects.
I always have only been a fan of sending top prospects that have either already made the 26, of are about to bubble over from the AAA level, to winter league teams if… and this is a big if… you have the agreement from that team that said prospect is going to play a specific position you want this player to focus in on.
Like Mauricio playing third base during this winter ball season.
If not, target your lower level or secondary prospects on these assignments.
Was the Mauricio injury preventable? In my opinion, no. He was sent there to learn playing third, which was what was happening. Some injuries are preventable. This just is what it is.
I told Tom that I was out of ideas what to write about, but I changed my mind.
No big post here. Just my today thoughts.
I'll write next week about my thoughts regarding the next wave.
13 comments:
Jerickson Profar, Amed Rosario, Joey Bart, Jarred Kelenic…. all these guys were top prospects with huge expectations and off the charts tools. It takes a while sometimes. And I’m tired of seeing our youngsters succeed elsewhere. The lineup is fine, Manaea is who I called for yesterday so obviously, he’s fine to me. Get a couple of back of the Bull press relievers and let’s report pitchers and catchers.
This team could literally have 20 players in 2026 under team control
Mack, I agree. Some still want a DH added, but I'd prefer to let Vientos get 500 at bats and see where he ends up this season. If he flops, Mauricio, Gilbert, and Williams will need at bats. Clog the line up and when does that ever happen?
Also, I am guessing the Mets Top Prospects list needs a refresh, but it shows ETA for Jett Williams as 2026 (that late - really?) and Acuna as 2024 but Gilbert as 2025 (really?) and Alex Ramirez, who floundered in Brooklyn in 2023, as 2024 (REALLY??).
Clifford as 2026, so if he is as good as advertised, and not the next Kirk Nieuwenhuis, then if Pete leaves, Vientos could be a competent, power-hitting 1B in 2025.
Parada is shown as 2025. Seems right, time-wise, I guess that depends on catcher injuries, though. And catcher Ronald Hernandez shortly thereafter in 2026, which feels right. Very possible to have 3 very good MLB catchers in 2026.
It will be interesting to see who opens up this year at Syracuse and Binghamton
Hope they are aggressive in promoting prospects.
Agreed, Tom. That timeline’s all wrong. Gilbert in ‘24, Jett Williams ‘25 at the latest. Acuña maaaaaybe ‘24 but more likely ‘25. Clifford is still a huge ?, could be ‘26 or just as easily never. If Parada sticks with catching, which I tend to doubt (though WTH do I know) I’d say ‘26, given his struggles. Ramirez shouldn’t even have a date until he shows he can handle A+. The pitchers are always impossible to predict because… pitchers. My sleeper to shoot up boards this season with a chance to debut in ‘25 is William Lugo.
Vientos is a DH! Maybe. If he doesn’t strike out too much. 230/20/60 ?
Lou, this is Tom. Hopefully Vientos is even better. He has a lot of power.
If I remember correctly, that game where Vientos had two hrs, he sat the next one. If given the 500 at bats, it wouldn't surprise me if he hits 25/30 hrs
But the can't just sit him down if he goes 0 for 15 or so. He playing time must stay consistent. Same with Baty.
One way to project where Stearns is going is the remaining options for each player. Vientos (who has been totally mismanaged for years) only has one option left so he literally has to open on the 26 man roster or they use his last option which means that he will be a worthless asset unless he can come up & crush it at some point next year. He needs a good, long run of at bats so he is likely the primary DH & likely short side of the 3B platoon to open the year. This works initially at 3B because Bart really has trouble hitting lefties so he should start against righties to build confidence & have a shot at posting some decent numbers. They can build him up to handle lefty pitching over time. This is why I think the non pitching roster is fully set. They need two established relievers (one RH & one LH) to complete the lineup. Luchasse may be the lefty at this point. They are very close to done. Maybe move Nararez & bring up Nido to nip some spending. If some combo of last years under performers rebound & someone hits reasonable well at 3B they are likely 10 games better. Than last year & will compete for the last WC spot. If they are close they can adjust at the deadline & if they are not, they can sell & stock prospects. The plan seems pretty clear to me & aligns with the messaging since the last trade deadline.
This is Tom … let’s just start spring training already
Impressive analysis.
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