Tom Brennan: Mets Minors Relief; Defense Matters; Fake Ages; Colt Keith

OH, WHAT A RELIEF IT IS!

In 2023, we saw what we see almost every year in Metsville - a long string of relievers coming to the Mets, pitching mostly not well, and leaving, and several coming and going more than once.

You'd figure everyone even halfway worthwhile came up, right?

Wrong.  Let me discuss some "possibles" bubbling up through the system here.

There are two who might have been called up if needed, but both were not on the 40 man roster and would have had to be added.  

And two others, also not on the 40 man roster, who got hot late in the season, but again, there was not a pennant race for the Mets, so why call them up either? 

And two others who pitched well in AA and have pitched well his whole minors career in relief, frankly.

I like guys who can strike out the world, sport a tiny ERA, and win and save games.

Here are the 6:

1) NATE LAVENDER

The 6'2", 210 lefty mostly pitched in AAA in his second full minor league season, after being drafted in the 14th round in 2021. He appeared in 42 games and ended 2023 with a 4-3 record, 7 of 8 in saves, 2.98 ERA, fanning a tremendous 86 in 54 innings, with hitters batting .196 against him, and compiled a 1.20 WHIP.  He hit 7 batters, too, which I frankly like to see, demonstrating possibly a lapse in control, but certainly not indicating he is gun-shy about keeping guys honest.  His only flaw as I see it is 26 walks in 54 innings.

In his career, he is 10-6, 2.32, 13 of 14 in saves, and 165 Ks in 109 IP.  His homers allowed rose to 7, all in his 44 innings in AAA, after having only allowed 1 HR in his prior 64 minor league innings. Better hitters are more dangerous, and represented a good learning experience.  Still, his HRs allowed rate is solid.  And in his 44 AAA innings, he fanned 67 and posted a 3.27 ERA.  Keep in mind that in the International League, due to the tight automated strike zone, the average team's ERA was 5.08 and Syracuse's ERA was 5.80, so he flummoxed those averages.

I see no reason whatsoever that he cannot contend for the 2024 Mets opening day bullpen, and if not on that roster day 1, it won't take long.

Puzzlingly, his Steamer MLB projections for 2024 (as of late November, when I drafted this article) are just 12 IP, 3.89, 10 K/9.

2) PAUL GERVASE

Drafted in the 12th round in 2023, the 6'10" 23 year old righty Gervase may need a little more time, as he only has gotten as high in the minors as 10 innings in AA late in 2023. But those 10 innings included 20 strikeouts.  And he faced 4 batters in the post-season, retiring all 4 and fanning 2.  In 2022, he threw 5 innings of relief in the playoffs for St. Lucie, allowing no runs on 2 hits, 2 walks, and fanning 4.  So, he has performed very well in post-season play. 

In Brooklyn, where he spent most of 2023 he fanned 76 in 47 innings.  Those 96 Ks in 57 total 2023 innings are eye-catching K numbers.  

He ended his full season of 2023 at 4-2, 2.05, and saved 7 of 9. His ERA might have been better had he not had a .272 BABIP in 2023, which seems high for a guy who missed so many bats. 

He has allowed just 2 HRs in 68 pro innings, which is great.  A concern, though, is he walked 42 in his 57 innings and hit 5 batters.  That won't work in the big leagues.  But his walk rate was somewhat better after a wild April, and he promisingly walked just 4 vs. 20 Ks in his 10 innings late in the season in AA. 

It would seem some AAA seasoning in early 2024 and a reduced walk rate should be Gervase's ticket to the Big Show by June.  Major league hitters will make him throw strikes, though. 

His Steamer projections for 2024 are for 14 IP, 4.37 ERA, and 10 K/9.

3) JOANDER SUAREZ

As I have chronicled in prior articles, Suarez, after years of few innings due to injuries, sported a 7.23 ERA in early July in Brooklyn. 

He then ignited, with a 4 start stretch in July where he fanned 32 in 24 innings while allowing 5 earned runs, followed by 5 of his last 6 season starts where, in the 5, he allowed just 7 hits in 30 scoreless innings while fanning 36, with the last 3 of those starts in AA, including a no hitter.  

He allowed just 6 HRs in 108 innings in 2023, and sported a second half ERA of 1.98 while walking just 10 hitters in 50 innings.

All of which constituted a brilliant, but small, sample size.  His career could go in two paths, it seems, if he can build on his success in 2024 as I expect he will:

a) a Mets reliever by mid-2024, because he sports control and a low HR rate.

b) a possible Mets starter in 2025.

He still has not caught Steamer’s “eye”, showing him not pitching in the majors in 2024. The Mets May agree, since he was left off the 40 man.

Option "a" seems more likely, unless of course the Mets use him as a trade chip this off season. Built like a bull at 6'3", 250, I recall the Mets trading Adam Oller and JT Ginn for Chris Bassitt after a similarly brilliant minors stretch for Oller, who faltered with the As. Ginn faltered, too.

4) ERIC ORZE

The last 2 seasons have mostly not gone well for Eric Orze, the Mets' 5th rounder in 2020, but the now 26 year old man with the forkball might just have figured things out in late August and September in AAA, when in a stunningly strong relief stretch, he hurled 11 innings, allowed 2 hits, walked 6 and fanned 22.  

I do like the fact that in a HR-happy league like the International League, Eric allowed just 6 HRs in 61 innings.  His ERA after a brutal season start was 10.50 on May 6, by which time he'd allowed 14 earned runs in 12 innings, but "just" 22 earned runs in 49 innings after that in a league where (as noted above) the average team's ERA was 5.08.

But again, not to ignore his prior struggles, but that last 11 innings of dominance in AAA and his low HRs allowed rate give me the sense that he can help in the Mets bullpen in 2024.

Steamer does not see the man with the 60 rated splitter splitting pitches for the Mets in 2024, however.

5) TREY MCLOUGHLIN

A 16th rounder in 2021, the 6’2” righty Trey Mac pitched very well in Brooklyn and AA in 2023. 4-3, 2.79 in 35 games, 64 Ks in 51 IP, and 5 of 8 in-saves, and solid control. 

Trey also pitched in Az Fall Ball, and did so very well, too.  How does 9 innings and a 0.00 ERA sound? (His teammate Nolan Clenney, to not leave him out, allowed 1 earned run in 9 innings in the land of the cactus.)

Trey will turn 25 next June, so it is time to take on and defeat AAA. If he succeeds at that in 2024, he could be a second half call up to the Mets.

Steamers apparently likes Trey, showing him (when I drafted this some weeks ago) with 33 MLB innings, 30 Ks, and 4.58 in 2024.  Trey is not a fireballer, FYI.

6) DANIEL JUAREZ

The 5'11" lefty from Venezuela, who pitched 2023 as a 22 year old, started out in the DSL in 2019.  In his career, he is 10-6, 2.50, with 219 Ks in 165 innings.

In 2023, he relieved in 12 games in Brooklyn and allowed no earned runs and just 5 hits in 16 innings. He then got in 21 games for AA Binghamton, where he registered a 3.27 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, where batters hit just .200 against him.  (But, righties in AA against him hit .234, with 22 hits and 13 walks in 24.2 innings, so that is a bit of a concern in that low-offense league).

He was 1 for 1 in save chances in 2023.  Just 4 HRs (all in AA) in his 57 innings in 2023, with 3 against those righties in those 24.2 IP against righty hitters in AA.

I am impressed by his commendable performances so far, but he fanned 24 in his 16 Brooklyn innings, and that dropped to 37 Ks in 41 innings in AA, so I am concerned a bit as to whether his stuff that has been enough to tame hitters up to AA will still be strong enough to hold MLB hitters at bay.  So, he is to me the iffiest of the 5 hurlers touted here, but he could easily prove the ability to adapt and continue to succeed against higher competition.  Let's see how he does in 2024 in AAA.

Keep in mind that as well as he has pitched, he has thrown 165 career innings and not yet been tested against AAA hitters, which may be a bit concerning.

And Steamer shows him not pitching in MLB in 2024.

My brother Steve, were I to show him this list, would reply, “you show me Mets minors guys like this every year, can we just stock up the Mets pen with enough REAL relievers, for once, to have a killer pen?  Where are OUR 100 MPH pen guys?”

He’s got a point. I told him that Dick Raddatz-sized Bryce Montes de Oca had a 70 rated fastball, and a super-sick, ultra high speed sinker, but his control arm is still not cleared for high speed hurtling by the repair shop.  

I read recently, though, that his throwing program is moving along nicely, although I don't know what that person's source is to know how far along that is.  I did, though, see a video clip of him easily tossing the ball back in the early fall.  

If he comes back fully repaired and healthy in June or July, that could be a big plus for the Mets' pen.

And, of course, let’s remember Dylan Tebrake, of whom I wrote a few weeks back.  I know this reader group has some Dylan fans.

AND…YES, DEFENSE MATTERS!

“It’s the defense, stupid.” No, Bill Clinton did not say that, but it’s true.

The Mets have added slick fielding Harrison Bader and Joey Wendle, among others.

Luis Guillorme was shed by the Mets. That reputed defensive whiz was a far cry from Wendle in that regard. Wendle has superb career WAR. So does Bader. Guillorme does not….that is the data.

In defense of former Met Vogelbach playing no defense, he did so only because he was a full time DH. He did defend his place at the buffet table, though, and his dugout to buffet table sprint time was the best on the team.

Let's get serious again:

According to a site called The Fielding Bible, the Blue Jays led the majors in 2023 in Defensive Runs Saved with a +85, while Stearns’ former Brewers team was 2nd with a +68.

The Mets were 25th in team DRS with a NEGATIVE 25 runs saved, a remarkable 110 run negative difference from the leather-flashing Blue Jays. 

The Mets’ best DRS players in 2023 were “the Francisco’s “ - Lindor and Alvarez were both +7.

But Lindor’s +7 was only good enough to rank him 49th in baseball last year.

(BTW, Gary Sanchez the past 2 years had 659 at bats, 33 doubles, 35 HRs, 108 RBIs….and remarkably a PLUS 7 in DRS in 2023. Glad we kept Narvaez and Nido instead? They combined for a mere +1 DRS, and 8 RBIs in 2023. Horrible.)

And… Nimmo was a minus 7, while the Blue Jays’ Daulton Varsho was a +29, an incredible differential. 

It is little wonder that Stearns got Bader to play a lot of center field. Bader was a +5 in 2023 with far less playing time and playing less than 100% healthy. And acquired Tyrone Taylor (+4) and Adrian Houser (+2), further improving the Mets’ 2024 defensive profile.

Baty and the injured Marte were both -7 in DRS.  Both have to do much better in that regard in 2024. How about 0 DRS from both? I’d take it.

All that said…it is very clear why Stearn’s acquisitions ought to significantly improve Mets’ defense. Fewer runs allowed due to shaky defense ought to mean more Mets wins.

FAKE AGES IN INTERNATIONAL VILLE:

MLB.Com noted (as per the Athletic) that “the age of a Mets signee from the 2023 international signing period is reportedly under investigation by Major League Baseball, as several teams recently learned that players they either have agreements with or were interested in were older than they previously believed. The Mets, Astros, Royals, Twins and Athletics are reportedly those teams.”

“The Athletic notes that according to those familiar with baseball's international signings, identity and age fraud in the Dominican Republic is on the rise…..Earlier in January, the Mets signed 20 international free agents but did not officially sign shortstopRaymel Ortiz. Michael Marino reported that a deal between Ortiz, MLB Pipeline's No. 26 international prospect in the 2024 class and the Mets fell through because of player age falsification.”

SO…WE WONDERED WHY RAYMEL WASN’T SIGNED.   MAYBE THEY FOUND OUT HE’S ACTUALLY 22…OR 32…OR 42.  AGE IS RELATIVE ANYWAY, RIGHT?

WAIT, I THOUGHT ONLY WOMEN LIED ABOUT THEIR AGES…

COLT KEITH CASH

The now 22 year old Colt was the first selection in the 5th round of the 2020 draft. 132nd overall. Tigers snatched him up.

The Mets drafted C Matt Dyer, best remembered for being entirely forgettable, with the 120th pick in the 4th round.

So…third baseman Colt in 2023, as a Tiger high minor leaguer, hits .306 with 38 doubles, 27 HRs, and 101 RBIs!  He is yet to make his MLB debut.

The Tigers, however, are already so effusive about Colt that this was reported in MLB Trade Rumors:

The Tigers announced a six-year contract extension with infield prospect Colt Keith. 

The deal guarantees Keith $28.6425MM and could max out at $82MM over nine years if three club options (covering the 2030, 2031, and 2032 seasons) are all escalated and exercised. 

In addition to a $2MM signing bonus, Keith will earn $2.5MM in salary for the 2024 campaign, $3.5MM in 2025, $4MM per season in 2026 and ’27, and $5MM per season in 2028 and ’29. Each club option includes salary escalators, but the values currently break down as follows — the 2030 club option is valued at $10MM with a $2.6425MM buyout, the 2031 option worth $13MM ($1MM buyout), and the 2032 option worth $15MM ($2MM buyout).

WOW.

The Tigers could easily do this because they are 60% below the salary cap.

I know, the draft is a crap shoot.  Heck, Dyer could have turned into the next Duffy Dyer.

This tells me to not dawdle in trying for a similar extension for Francisco Alvarez.