Recently the New York Mets acquired Harrison Bader on a one-year free agent contract reported to be worth $10.5M. Immediately, the reaction in the press was positive, as Bader is well known for his defensive prowess as a former gold-glover for the St. Louis Cardinals. I was pretty pleased as well, because he makes the 2024 outfield better.
However, I saw many opinions that immediately had Bader taking the center field slot and sliding Brandon Nimmo into left. To me that should not be written in ink as the solution, and I think people just jumped to a conclusion way too fast based on memories of Bader’s centerfield exploits in his gold glove year. The oft-injured Bader has not been that same player in the last two years.
One might recall that in December 2021 the Mets acquired another stellar defensive center fielder who also brought some serious batting skills to the club. But the Mets decided to put 33-year-old Starling Marte in right field and keep Nimmo in center.
So now the debate is open – we have three talented players who have all played a lot of center field in their careers. All of them have at times struggled with injury, which may be the curse of the position since it is so demanding. Players have to cover a very large piece of the field which in at least one direction terminates with a very unforgiving wall. Let’s take a look at the three as if we were the outfield coach and see how they stack up.
Brandon Nimmo: 30 years old with an 8-year playing career for the New York Mets.
Nimmo holds a career .270/.380/.447 slash line which calculates to a .827 OPS.
He played in 152 games last year, putting up a .274/.363/.466 slash line, so he produced for a team that was going through some significant adversity.
In his career (not including call-up year), Nimmo has averaged 104 games/year. In the last three he averaged 131 games/year and in the last five he averaged 104.
Nimmo is known for his hard work in improving his game. His batting, his power, and his defensive skills have improved quite a bit since he first came to the team. His defensive improvement and Marte’s age are likely factors in him retaining the CF job in 2022. Nimmo posted six outs above average that season and one last year.
Starling Marte: 35 years old with a 12-year playing career for five teams.
Marte holds a career .287/.343/.445 slash line which calculates so a .788 OPS.
He played in only 86 games last year after never fully recovering from core surgery at the end of the 2022 season. When he was playing, he had an off year, slashing .248/.301/.324.
In his career (not including call-up year), Marte has averaged 117 games/year. In the last three he averaged 108 games/year and in the last five he averaged 103.
Marte likely has the best overall skills of the three players when he is healthy. Although it was difficult to tell last year because of the core problems, his 2021 and 2022 seasons were statistically two of his best offensive years so he was not showing the effects of age at that point. However, defensively he was in negative territory with -2 OAA in 2022 and -5 OAA in 2023.
Harrison Bader: 29 years old with a 7-year career for the Cardinals, Yankees, and Reds.
Bader holds a career .243/.310/.396 slash line which calculates to a .706 OPS.
He played in 98 games last year with a few trips to the IL. When on the field, he struggled to get his rhythm at the plate, slashing .232/.274/.348.
In his career (not including call-up year), Bader has averaged 100.5 games/year. In the last three he averaged 96 games/year and in the last five he averaged 93.
Bader in full health shows the best defensive statistics. Baseball Savant has him at 9 outs above average in 2023 and 7 in 2022.
Having gone through the comparison of the three players, I draw the following conclusions. Nimmo is the most durable of the three players. Bader has a significant edge in the defensive evaluation. A healthy Marte has more hits and more stolen bases in him, though his power is not better than Nimmo.
So what would you do when preparing the lineup card? Clearly there are six weeks of spring training to evaluate whether these players are healthy and ready to go. If they are, one could start Bader in CF as long as he is healthy with Nimmo in LF and Marte in RF.
But the long term view if Bader and Marte can’t stay healthy would have Nimmo in center and some rotation of Jeff McNeil, DJ Stewart, Tyrone Taylor and Mark Vientos playing the corners until a guy named Drew Gilbert shows that he is ready to play at the MLB level. Then it gets really interesting.
13 comments:
Shows the need for a strong fourth OF.
Sherzer,Verlander to Manama,,Severino,has Uncle Steve lost interest?
+1
I think we’ll see Bader a lot in CF as it’ll probably save some wear on Nimmo’s legs, benefiting both his offense this year and his health over the remainder of his long contract. I also think we could see Gilbert earlier than most suspect (maybe the first OF injury that happens after Memorial Day or so). And while he’s touted as a plus CF’er, he apparently has the arm to play RF, which is big for both him and the team given both Marte’s fragility and the fact that Nimmo’s arm is relatively weak. An OF of Nimmo, Bader, and Gilbert would be a hell of a defensive alignment.
Marte seems to be off to a solid winter league ball start. I guess his play there will be short-lived, given the calendar.
I think we could do a lot worse than Nimmo, Marte, Bader, Taylor, and Stewart. Outfield is done, IMO.
Spend on the pen. Or like the Fram oil filter commercial, you will pay dearly later.
Agreed - Gilbert will be ready fairly soon - perhaps 250 AAA at bats. He's triumphed over AA.
Look
I don't think any of us like the way this team is turning out to be.
The rotation is far below what we are used to, the pen is weak, the outfield is not all-star caliber, the Baby Mets have underperformed, and infield is incomplete
You're going to have to root for this team like you do as a Giants or Jets fan
You know a World Series game is impossible, a playoff game is probably a good dream, and you root for individual game victories.
Nothing more
Remarkably, Teoscar Hernandez is a prime example of what an advatange a juggernaut team has.
He hit well, but fanned a whopping 211 times in 160 games. Sounds like Chris Davis to me, as his Ks per game have been climbing.
So...he wants to play for the World Series-favored juggernaut and agrees to a $23.5 million ONE YEAR DEAL, with a third of it deferred. He'll probably thrive. Dodgers get a favorable deal, without signing him for his decline years.
If he signed with the Mets? He'd accept nothing less than 4 years, $90 million. For which the Mets would have gotten one mediocre season, and 3 albatross seasons.
Which is why Stearns is betting on rookies being good - and cheap - in 2025. Most long term high dollar Mets contracts come back to bit them.
Mack, if they add two more solid pen arms to Edwin, I think they have a chance at a Wild Card. But they'd need a lot to go right.
If the Mets didn't have Edwin in 2022, they probably win 88, not 101.
I don't agree
The future of this team will depend if the prospect trade pieces Stearns got turn out someday
Until then watch them finish next to last in their division
I’m actually excited to watch this season unfold at both the big league and minor league levels. Also, can’t wait to hear the howls of protest from the fan base when Stearns, with cold calculation, reaps another prospect haul by selling at the deadline even as we sit on the fringes of WC viability.
I’ve been waiting 35 years for a FO able to see past this week’s headlines or next week’s attendance figures. It’s the only way to get to sustained success. I’m not young, but I’ll happily take a year or two of lumps if it’s clear that’s happening.
I am not in the Eeyore pen here. Like somebody once said - Baseball games are no won on paper, nor in the off-season.
My view: None of Messrs. Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, McNeil, or Bader is past the prime playing years. While they may not all have career years, there is no reason to believe that any of them will will have any natural age regression.
And other than Marte, the remainder of the lineup (Alvarez, Baty, and Vientos) are still up and coming who had their learning curve last year. I am hopeful that will their initial experience that they will all be better this year.
Now on to the pitching. As usual, health is the huge key. We saw what Senga can do. We'll all take another year of what he gave last year. I like the Manaea signing - he came on very strong at the end of the year with the Giants. I expect him to be one of the best 'under-the-radar' signings of the year. Severino has history of being a very good pitcher, and Quintana was decent when he returned from injury. Tom has well documented the two sides of the 2023 Megill. I like the last few starts. And Luchessi provided some key starts as well. Will all of them pitch like Seaver/Koosman/Matlack? Probably not, but I am more optimistic than a Mike Bacsik/John Thomson/Jeff D'Amico rotation .
I do agree that another good arm or two is needed for the bullpen.
Lastly, a lot of games are won and lost with team chemistry and good fundamentals. We do not know yet the management style of Carlos Mendoza and the rest of the new staff, but both 2022 and 2023 were good examples of over-achieving and under-achieving. I believe the clubhouse had a lot to do with both.
So, call me a fool, but in January, I am looking forward optimistically to a decent 2024.
Sneaky good rotation, a solid starting lineup if the Baby Mets come through,a good BP if they get two more arms,your dam right this should be a decent team.
This is Tom, unlike last season, I heard the first two months schedule is TOUGH. Have not looked at schedule yet, but stumbling out of the gate against a tough schedule could be an early TKO
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