Recent interviews with David Stearns have quoted him saying that he expects the 2024 Mets to be competing for a playoff berth. I know this was the team’s mantra heading into the off-season after a dreadful 2023 season, but as you have heard many times during this very long winter, there have been no big free agent signings to speak of that would repair the many areas this team failed last year.
We know that every team opens spring training with the optimism that “this could be the year’, but only a handful of teams come in with the power lineups that could allow them to stake a claim. This year’s Braves, Dodgers, Astros, and maybe the Yankees can put a paper argument together based on the reputation and statistics of their current rosters.
Then there is that next tier of clubs that have enough horses that allow them to play the “what if” game. “What if our top players turned in career seasons”; and “If everyone stays healthy”; and “If our top prospect plays as expected”. That can happen sometimes, as the Diamondbacks and Phillies will attest to with World Series berths in the last two years.
Can this happen with the Mets? Most of us would shake our heads while staring at the ground. We let go several big names at the trade deadline in 2023, our off-season has not added any game-changers, and the jury is still out on all of our young talent – none of which has put a consistent MLB season together yet.
One could argue that there are several players that have the skills to compete, but is it really enough? 2022 gave us tremendous hope before crashing back to earth following the Marte injury, but 2023 left us doubting just about everyone. As I wrestled with this dilemma in my head (as any Met fan does before a season starts), I decided to go to the numbers. Fangraphs puts together projections for the coming year’s WAR for every rostered player on MLB teams.
I would be fascinated to delve into those algorithms, but for the moment I have to accept the results as a non-emotional way to look at the teams. Yes, they are mathematical models based upon statistics that can’t take into account the every day grind of a 162-game season, but this is the best crystal ball we have.
I looked at Fangraphs’ projected 2024 WAR for the projected starters in the published depth chart of every National League team, figuring that if the Mets could break the top ten, they would have a shot. I was shocked at the result – they were third! Here’s the table:
The Braves and Dodgers are known powerhouses. The Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Diamondbacks all have recent playoff experience. Most of us expected those teams to be on top. The Mets, on the other hand were a surprise to me. This looks more like where I would have ranked them after the 2022 season than today. But when you look at the core, it is the same team. They have just lowered our expectations significantly with last year’s underperformance and injuries.
8 comments:
I continue to believe Mets offense can be among 6 playoff teams. Sign a bullpen and let's go !
Hitting is quite solid if our hitters stay quite healthy. Let’s roll.
You know me. Old school.
PROJECTED war is like kissing your sister
You can not project anything in the future no less what the next pitch will result in
Useless stat
So…how is Marte doing so far? I know he had a few good games.
72 wins
He's doing good
More important is he remains healthy
75 wins? A last place finish? Things aren’t looking too good.
As currently constructed this team is worse than last year. Relying on a lot of health question marks (i.e. Severino, Bader, etc.).
We already had enough health question marks like Marte and Quintana so we didn’t need to add to it. Still haven’t replaced Ottavino and Robertson unless the AAAA players and reclamation projects Stearns signed are supposed to replace their innings, K’s, and ERA.
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