Reese Kaplan -- Suppose for a Moment the Glass is Half Full?

On Wednesday David Stearns held a press conference to address the media about team additions, needs and expectations between now and Opening Day.  The general consensus was that he expected to see the players already in the system before rushing out to make immediate big name additions or changes as he's not exactly sure of the talent level of everyone he inherited when he became the head of baseball operations.

While this perspective is understandable, it seems to underscore the perception that the 2024 year which is back loaded with old salaries of players no longer in the organization is essentially what it is.  That means the younger players are going to by necessity receive quite a lot of playing time, both to understand what they are capable of doing at the sport's highest level to see how they could become an inexpensive part of the future, or to fortify their value as trade bait.  

Many folks are upset at this approach given the freewheeling ways of the first few Steve Cohen years and they haven't fully recovered from the bottoming out that occurred this past season after reaching playoff baseball level just the year before.  Accepting a "transition year" or a "rebuild" or a "tanking" is never easy but there is some validity to this strategy.  Right now the expectations for the club are to perform about at a .500 level, better if some of the younger players and fringier acquisitions deliver better than folks expect them to do.

So let's for just a moment put the negativity aside and try to ascertain how good this team can be as it's currently constructed.  The qualifier is necessary because whether or not you believe the rumor that they have only about $10 million left to spend then they are probably pretty much done with the influx of new players unless they manage to trade away some salary.  

The problem is that the only significant ways to do that are either with the better players already here or the more highly compensated ones that would force you to pay down their contracts in order to entice another team to take a chance.  Consequently, what you see, other than some last minute bullpen additions, is what you get.

So playing Polly Positive, what exactly have we got here?

Well, at first base is one Pete Alonso.  Put aside both the contract issue and the 2023 embarrassing batting average.  The last time I looked he was leading ALL of baseball in power since his arrival and it's reasonable to expect it will continue in 2024.  

At second base is former NL Batting Champion Jeff McNeil.  Again, put aside the 2023 overall campaign and instead look to the career numbers and you see a rarity.  He's a player who gets on base regularly, hits the ball to all fields, shows modest power and plays competent defense.  For a guy just a hair under .300 for a career batting average, he's not exactly chopped liver out there.

Francisco Lindor has seemingly won over his initial detractors who feared upon acquisition that he was like the season one of Carlos Beltran as a Met.  He did underperform a bit but since then has reengaged with his ability with the bat, with his legs and with his glove.  He's clearly one of the best overall shortstops in the game and is a key to the middle of the batting order.

Now third base is for the Mets once again the great unknown.  They have no David Wright.  They have no Howard Johnson.  What they most likely have is sophomore Brett Baty.  Given his minor league resume, you would expect he would hit above .270 and provide 20+ home runs.  While that's not exactly All Star material, if he can grow into those numbers as his first full season then the naysayers may have to find a new source for their cynicism.

Behind the plate the sky appears to be the limit for young Francisco Alvarez.  Yes, his batting average was nothing to brag about but that home run power most certainly was as was his actively improved defense behind the plate.  While he's not exactly Johnny Bench back there, for now the goal is to be better than Mike Piazza when it comes to his defense.

To believe what was reported, Brandon Nimmo who has become a better fielder than originally considered is likely moving to the corner in left field.  This change will allow him to deliver even better while patrolling the grass and continue to be a top performer at the plate between his OBP and his increasing home run power.

In center field it's a little less certain.  Harrison Bader is certainly a speedy Gold Glove level performer while manning the field, but his offense is best restricted to facing left handed pitching.  As a right handed hitter against a southpaw he's more than solid.  However, facing right handed pitching he's barely above the Mendoza line.  

Consequently you might be looking at a bit of a platoon with someone as yet not identifed.  Tyrone Taylor is a right handed hitter as well and D.J. Stewart is almost of the Todd Hundley variety when it comes to playing the outfield (though he is a lefty swinger). 

In right field may lie the key to the whole season's output.  For as quickly as he was condemned for not recovering adequately from multiple surgeries and migraines, many Mets fans have amnesia about what Starling Marte did for the team during their 100 win season in 2022.  

As a quick reminder he hit .292 with 16 home runs, 63 RBIs and stole 18 bases while playing stellar defense.  What would it mean to the Mets if he could approximate those numbers once again?  Even with the health issues last season in just over a half season's worth of games he stole 24 bases.

On the mound the starting pitching is solid when it comes to the first two with Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana.  Then next is Luis Severino who, when healthy, is a remarkable pitcher who rumor has it was tipping his pitches last season.  Add in newcomer Sean Manaea whose new sweeper added to a solid latter 2/3s of last season and all of the sudden it's not looking too bad. 

The fifth starter right now would appear to be newcomer Adrian Houser who split time between the pen and the rotation in the past.  He's about a 4.00 ERA pitcher which while not great is still better than what could be expected from other stopgap Mets hurlers.

The bullpen is really the only place where there is a lot of uncertainty.  Yes, Edwin Diaz, Brooks Raley and Drew Smith are likely to be there, though Smith is coming off a terrible season and Diaz needs to show his 2022 form after injury.  Of the reminder of many arms added for opportunities to ome north with the club, Jorge Lopez appears to be a near lock.  After that, who knows?  That less than rock solid answer to the bullpen question explains the continuing interest in other relievers. 

So there you have the David Stearns 2024 Mets.  

There are not a lot of All Stars here without some unexpected developments, but then again consider his former employer in Milwaukee and you saw a year after year contender who outside of Christian Yelich (and when Ryan Braun got his enhancements) they were not filled with the best of the best either. It may be that way until 2025 when more money comes off the books and more pedigree free agents enter the marketplace.