1/1/24

Reese Kaplan -- Who Could the Mets Trade to Fix the Roster?


We have beaten the free agent options to death already.  What we haven't explored much is the subject of using trades to improve the roster.  Now the receiving side is nearly impossible to predict as we don't know who, what position, what style of play and what salaries the Mets are willing to take on from another team.  What we can do is evaluate folks on the current roster and give a little conjecture over what value they would have in a trade.

For the purposes of this exercise we exclude the $341 million man, Francisco Lindor, the allegedly recovered Starling Marte whose salary and 2023 history render him virtually untradeable except to take on someone in a similar situation on another team, and Francisco Alvarez because he earns minimum and showed steady improvement all year long.  Edwin Diaz, Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and Brooks Raley all make this "do not trade" list as well.  

Unfortunately, there are a few highly viable players who could theoretically be placed on the trade market without getting into the values of future Mets who have not yet hit the majors.  Let's have a look.


The player who has had the most at least casual conversation as trade bait is the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso.  Right now the team is in a bit of a tough position in that Alonso has engaged Scott Boras as his agent and the long history shows he will actively discourage any of his clients from signing a contract without first testing what he could get on the open market.  To everyone's knowledge the Mets have not made an in-house offer to Alonso, so unless they do so they stand to lose him at year's end for not even a draft pick since he would get and turn down a Qualifying Offer.  

So then we have the trade route.  Recently a report came out that suggested he was no better than a prospect ranked in the second half of the top 200.  When reading that probably every Mets fan went apoplectic.  He's hit more home runs since arriving than Aaron Judge, Shoehei Ohtani, Matt Olson, Freddy Freeman, Juan Soto and anyone else you care to name.  He's a shoo-in for 100 RBIs or more.  Yes, he's a slow baserunner and an at best adequate fielder.  Yes, he did hit just .217 last season.  But no one can dispute the run production.

The real problem with trading Alonso is not the prospect ranking to receive in return, but the fact that right now he's a one year rental to the receiving team.  Right away that profile sabotages your otherwise normal trade value.  It gets even worse if the Mets wait until the All Star break to try to make a deal.  So you have to understand that trading Alonso may not net you equal value.  The positive is that his probably close to $30 million salary will come off the books and whatever you get trumps what him walking away after turning down a QO means you would get nothing at all.  Every GM knows the situation the Mets are in and likely will not be offering their crown jewels for the Mets' current cleanup hitter.


No one has actively talked much about trading away Jeff McNeil but sometimes you have to use the old "You have to give to get" philosophy of fortifying your roster.  McNeil is healthy and has shown the ability to play around the infield and in the outfield corners.  That versatility coupled with a career .298 average should make him appealing to pretty much any team.  With Ronny Mauricio, Jett Williams and others pushing their way towards major league work in the very near future, having another team absorb the remainder of McNeil's contract is not necessarily a dumb move.  The question for now would be how you would fulfill his spot on the roster.  Mauricio is out.  Williams isn't quite ready.  Brett Baty hasn't been tried at 2nd base and that would open up a 3rd base hole.  Somehow seeing Joey Wendle or Zack Short as your McNeil replacement is not going to warm anyone's cockles.  


Oddly, the current center fielder may be the most appealing player the Mets could try to parlay in trade for other pieces.  The real problem here is the team has Starling Marte and a lot of vacancy in starting caliber outfielders.  Nimmo leaving would make this weakness far worse and no one is expecting Drew Gilbert to jump from Binghamton to Queens after spring training concludes.  Still, Nimmo's steadily improving output and his recent good health after earlier bouts of IL stints during the first several years of his career all contribute to his growing value as a trade chip.  


Poor production in the majors would render both Brett Baty and Mark Vientos without much value in the trade market unless the Mets were taking on a salary dump from another team who was looking for long term economic solutions rather than day one starting caliber players.  If, for example, the Mets obtained a fading $16 million or more player from another team who might have a single good year or two left, then these younger unknowns would become part of the trade balance sheet unless the other team is paying down the salary.  

That's about it.  Yes, there are players who could leave like Omar Narvaez, Drew Smith, D.J. Stewart, Tyrone Taylor, Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi and others, but their value is insignificant except perhaps as throw-ins on a package deal.  

For now David Stearns has not a lot of major league assets to peddle to improve the team, but without much activity in the free agent marketplace except in the Wilpon tiers, he may have to roll up his sleeves to figure out how to make chicken salad out of the chicken, well, you know...less appealing ingredients he can offer.   


5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Happy New Year to all at Mack’s Mets.

Reese first we have to figure out if we are in it for this year or not. It seems with the pitching staff or lack of pitching we are not in it to win it this year.so I would.
1) try and sign Alonso to a little bit more than what Freeman received in his contract. If he doesn’t accept then make him a Free Man and trade him for Soto type trade offer in return.
Sign Either Hoskins or Justin Turner to take his spot. Also let Vientos learn the position and see what we get.
When free agency comes along next year offer Alonso the most money or go with someone else.

2) McNiel I would trade ASAP. I would in turn sign Whit Merrifield, Urshela or our old friend Ahmad Rosario to take his place.

3) I don’t know if Nimmo has a no trade clause or not, but he could bring in a pretty good haul. Sign Michael Taylor/ Tommy Pham to take his spot.

4) Quintana should be on the table as well, but maybe at the trade deadline?
If we aren’t going to make any major additions to the starting pitching this year, we might as well punt. Trade them all and then at midseason trade all the new free agents we just picked up for as much prospects as we can get.
Let the young Mets play that are on the 40 man and also see what we have with our top tier minor leaguers as well. Let the kids play

Zozo

Tom Brennan said...

This is all child's play for someone like Stearns, who is ascribed brilliance. Cohen is in self-induced salary cap hell. Being in hell can feel like an eternity, and be a place of no easy escape. Trade Pete, Nimmo, and Jeff and you've really fixed the salary issue if you just take back prospects.

I appreciated 40-120 once upon a time. Now again would not be much fun.

Tom Brennan said...

Zozo, a reasonable plan. And, if Marte rebounds but the Mets do not, trade him too mid-season. Get under the cap.

D J said...

Reese,
Often one trade can lead to additional trades during the year. When the Mets traded Met fan favorite, Lee Mazzilli, to Texas for minor league players Ron Darling and Walt Terrell, it improved the team for the upcoming season. When Walt was traded for Howard Johnson, the team was vastly improved.
And yes we know all trades don't work out as well as these two did, but that is why you hire a GM that can make them at least have a chance to improve the team.

bill metsiac said...

Good analysis, Reese. But why do you say that losing Pete at year's end would result in "not even a draft pick"? Obviously, if it came to that we undoubtedly WOULD get the pick.

I stick with my original plan--- let him play this year to show if his .217 was an outlier or the start of a trend. If the former, we can offer more than any other team. If the latter, go for the pick and replace from within (Vientos? Baty?) or sign someone else's FA.
What is there yo gain by extending him now?