11/15/13

Hot Stove Report: Trouble with Intl Posting System, Multiple Teams in on Hawkins, Murphy Trade Rumors



     Despite heavy interest in Japanese SP Masahiro Tanaka, the MLB and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league's current agreement expired before this season began. Negotiators have been working around the clock to come up with a new agreement before the heart of the free agent signing season begins, however, according to Andy McCollough via Twitter, "Japanese baseball officials have yet to inform MLB agreeing to terms for posting system and the MLB now plans to re-work proposal."

(If the NPB and the MLB cannot come to an agreement before January, it will cause a huge frenzy amongst the top level ballclubs that are looking to sign him. As a result of that the market  prices for starting pitching will skyrocket which could make Sandy Alderson re-think the possibility of trading Jonathan Niese or Dillon Gee. Especially when guys with career ERA's of 4.19, like Ervin Santana, are looking for $20M per season.)

     Despite his reported desire to return to the Mets, RP LaTroy Hawkins is said to have approximately  7 teams interested in bringing the 41 year old into their respective bullpens. Hawkins should receive a significant increase from his 2013 $1M salary.

(Look I really like Hawkins and I believe that he would bring significant value as a veteran amongst a bunch of young guys that are expected to be in the bullpen. However there are a TON of solid right handed relievers on the free agent market this year. One guy who really stands out but is flying under the radar is former Met Joe Smith. If Hawkins demands start creeping out I'd let him walk and bring back Tim Brydak to be the veteran presence.)

     In a story written by MSN Sport's Ken Rosenthal, the Mets have received significant interest on 2B Daniel Murphy. Surprisingly, on top of teams viewing him as an offensive upgrade at 2B, teams are also potentially viewing him as a viable option to handle 3B. MLB Trade Rumors forecast Murphy to earn $5.8M this season as a arbitration eligible player and is one of the Mets best hitters. However, with IF prospect Wilmer Flores being MLB ready, the team may be inclined to move him now while his value is highest and hope Flores can handle 2B next season.

(While I understand the logic of selling high while maintaining the offensive production with Flores, I'm just not sold on the fact that Flores can handle 2B yet. I'd like to see what happens with Davis and Duda first before trading Murphy because, who knows, we might receive good offers for both of them and then need to slide Murphy over to 1B or Flores to 1B and keep Murphy at 2B. That's the beauty of his versatility.)

2 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Regarding this international posting system, these are the kind of things that all owners should rally together to eliminate. It's absolutely stupid to have to pay $50-60 million to a team just so you can bid on someone in secret (and still lose out on the player).

Is this a war reparation?

Anonymous said...

To be fair though the posting system gives all the leverage to the winning team. Masahiro Tanaka will end up with FAR less in net $ per year than lets say Ervin Santana is looking for. And its that Average Annual Value (AAV) that effects the luxury tax.

So lets say the Rangers and the Yankees are both after Tanaka and lets say Ervin Santana. Both clubs have $189M in commitments already and the luxury tax threshold is $189M. lets say neither team has ever exceeded the threshold before so the penalty is 17.5% of the overage.

Rangers win the rights to Tanaka with a $50M bid. Tanaka can ONLY ngotiate with the Rangers and his only leverage is to NOT sign and go back to Japan. If he doesn't sign....Rangers get their money back.

Lets say he does sign and negotiates a 5 yr $60M contract. In total the club spent $120M to acquire him but are only adding the $12M AAV per year to the luxury tax which ends up costing them $2.1M

The Yankees end up in a bidding war with the Dodgers and end up signing Santana to a 5 yr $110M contract. In total the club spent the same $110M but the AAV is $22M per season which ends up costing them an additional $3.85M in luxury taxes