7/5/16

MINOR LEAGUES ARMS HOPE

MINOR LEAGUES ARMS HOPE by Tom Brennan


After promoting Thor and Matz in 2015, and trading Messrs. Fulmer, Cessa, Gant, Weick, Whelan and several others in the 2015 playoffs push, one has to wonder if there is any minor leagues pitching hope for the Mets. 


After all, Rafael Montero has gotten hammered in Vegas this year. 


Is there hope? YES.


The following aren't the only guys, but here are a few to watch:


Seth Lugo - one look at the extreme breaking ball he struck Anthony Rizzo out with gives hope he may be a future Mets bullpen arm.


Domingo Tapia threw 100 MPH, quite ineffectively, in the past. Puzzling - but likely because the righty was driving uncomfortably on Tommy John Boulevard and finally had a blow out.  He's had 6 nice relief outings since his return from TJS, so we'll see if he is a real pen arm soon enough.  Fellow TJS alumnus Luis Mateo has a 2.43 ERA in 29 relief outings in AA, and may yet prove to be a useful BP arm.


PJ Conlon gave up not a single earned run in relief in Brooklyn in his debut year of 2015.  Now starting this year, the lefty is an awe-inspiring 10-1, 1.62 and now in St Lucie.  The luck o' the Irish that we drafted him.


Justin Dunn: our 1st rounder in 2016 made his Cyclones debut with 2 scoreless IP, 2 Ks.


Harol Gonzalez - no D in Harol, but hopefully the boys play strong D behind him.  20 K's in 10.2 IP in his last 2 starts in Brooklyn opens one's eyes.


Then there are the Kingsport Lefties:


Tom Szapucki, 20, was the 149th pick last year, so one should have high expectations.  He is delivering: in 3 starts spanning 16.2 IP, he has fanned 30 and allowed 1 earned run.


Max Wotell, 19, was a high pick last year, and he is 1-0, 1.74 after 2 starts, and allowed just 7 hits in 21 career IP, with 26 Ks, in 2015 and 2016.  Nats have their Max, we have ours.


Presumably, we'll also see the return of Marcos Molina fairly soon, hopefully healthy and ready to rock again.


So there is hope, in my opinion.



Reese Kaplan -- Jose, I Can't See

So you have a player in the minors who has had some success at the major league level having had 29 ABs and delivered a .278 AVG with 7 hits, including a home run and 5 RBIs.  Then you have another former major leaguer in the minors who has hit a robust .200 over 30 ABs,  with a copious number of strikeouts and a 50% success rate at what he does best – stealing bases.

Consider, too, that the incumbent third baseman at the major league level had six hits (including two home runs) on Sunday, then followed it up on Monday with another hit and the game-tying RBI.  It seems to show that the more he plays, the more he delivers.

So what would be the natural thing to do?  Why, bench the guy who’s hitting, bypass the .278 hitting outfielder – Michael Conforto – and promote Jose Reyes to play 3B where he’s only played about 10 games in his entire professional career.

What makes the decision to promote Jose Reyes in the midst of a five-game winning streak when everything is going right at the major league level and everything has gone wrong for him at the minor league level even more ponderous is the announcement by the manager that Reyes was not coming to town for awhile yet.  Then the club announces after the game that Reyes is indeed on his way to New York in time for Tuesday’s game against the Marlins.  Once again the front office and the field manager are not talking to one another and making the club look ridiculous for its perpetual mismanagement.

Of course, since Terry Collins apparently is not the one pulling the strings, that means Reyes will be starting and leading off.  To put Reyes on the field means that the Mets need to create a 40-man roster vacancy (60-day DL for David Wright, perhaps?) and a 25-man roster space.  Someone will be shown the door with the likely candidates being Matt Reynolds, Alejandro De Aza, Wilmer Flores and Brandon Nimmo.  Since Reyes is an infielder my money is on Reynolds, though on a performance basis De Aza is the major’s worst hitter right now.  Still, he earns $6 million and cutting him loose would mean Sandy Alderson admitting he made an expensive mistake.  Then again both Flores and Nimmo have options available and kicking one of them to the curb makes no sense whatsoever…but then neither does promoting the .200 hitting Jose Reyes before he’s ready and while the team is doing just fine for the past five games without him.

We’ll know soon enough.

7/4/16

Mets Provide Plenty of Fireworks

Well, that was a holiday weekend and a half!  First came the four straight against the league's best team and then that amazing comeback today against the Marlins.  Of course, there were some lowlights -- Matt Harvey again looking lost, Terry Collins again afraid to make a pitching change when even Stevie Wonder could see Harvey didn't have it -- but timely hitting made the fantasy of a comeback a reality.  Think of how you had the guy you most wanted at the plate in the 8th inning with the game on the line and Cespedes delivered.  He's rapidly becoming the anti-Beltran in big moments.

7/3/16

CABRERA VS. CECCHINI

CABRERA VS. CECCHINI by Tom Brennan

A great article in the NY Post today about budding SS star Amed Rosario...give it a read.

Another Mets prospect SS, Gavin Cecchini, continues meanwhile to hit very well in AAA after a slow season's start. He is hitting .375 after a 10 for 55 season's start, spanning 176 at bats.

But is he a shortstop?

Gavin has made 26 errors in 56 games at short this year.

Asdrubal Cabrera for the Mets, by contrast, has made just 3 in 77 games.

An enormous differential.

Which leads me to 2 speculative conclusions.

1) Cecchini just is not able to physically play SS.

Or...

2) The errors have gotten in his head.

I don't know which, maybe both, but I would let him DH or play in the outfield.  Why reinforce fielding failure?

Give him a break ... his offense has been strong.  Guys' offense suffers when they have fielding issues. Let's see if he can hit .400 with the fielding pressure removed.  At least that's my thought.

Maybe return him to SS next year.

7/2/16

TOP TEN TRAVIS TAIJERON

TOP TEN TRAVIS TAIJERON by Tom Brennan

TRAVIS Taijeron may have been an 18th round pick, but play him everyday and he is a TOP TEN kind of a guy.

  In 77 games, Travis has a staggering 32 doubles.  Pause and appreciate that amazing number, which is 7 more than his closest PCL adversary.

Where else is Travis in the Top Ten in the PCL?

47 extra base hits - tied for first

66 RBIs - 3rd

56 Runs - 4th

.563 slug % - 7th

Strikeouts (alas) - 100 - 2nd

He also is in the Top 20 in homers (12), batting average(.306), and on base percentage (.389).

So congratulations on a fabulous first half of 2016, and may the strikeout rate improve.  It is all that is keeping Travis out of the bigs right now.

FOUR INTERESTING LOWER MINORS METS HITTERS by Tom Brennan

FOUR INTERESTING LOWER MINORS METS HITTERS by Tom Brennan

A quick peek at 4 guys in the lower minors who have shown early offensive promise.  Never to early for a quick peek, right? (Stats thru Thursday)

Wagner Lagrange - 20 year old 6'0" 175 outfielder moved up to the GCL from the DSL, and continues to hit - 8 for 18 with 4 walks and a single strikeout to start the season.  He now has 64 career games, in which he has hit .354/.417/.427.

Two million dollar plus 17 year old bonus babies of 2015 - SS's Andres Giminez and Greg Guerrero, both of whom are in the DSL:

Giminez, considered a strong hitter, is proving those projections prophetic so far, hitting 30 for 80 (.375/.475/.563)

Guerrero, related to the great Vladimir, is 26 for 82, sticking it at .317/.391/.354.

Lastly, staying on the subject of shortstops, 20 year old recent draftee in the 5th round Colby Woodmansee, started high in Brooklyn and has had a fine 9 game debut, hitting .405/.450/.432 in the same place that Jose Reyes went 0 for 5 before moving on to Binghamton and going 1 for 12.  Go Woody Go.

That's it for today, folks.


Reese Kaplan -- Go Big or Go Home


In a Twilight Zone (or Bizzarro World if you’re more of a superman fan) kind of way, I come to you today in praise of the beleaguered Skipper of this sinking ship.  I’m not going to get into his daily pitching burnout strategy nor his penchant for rewarding players who have a big day with a seat on the bench to rest on their laurels to celebrate their accomplishments.  No, as bad as it’s been more of the blame has to go to both the players themselves and the front office for not planning properly and taking proper corrective measures in a timely manner. 

David Wright 
No one is his right mind could possibly think that David Wright was going to play 150+ games given the state of his health.  While I’m not inside the mind of Sandy Alderson (right or not), I’m guessing the thinking was that Wilmer Flores would provide the 3B backup function should Wright need occasional or long term  rest.  The problem with that approach is it removed the one potentially viable bat from the bench in making Flores a starter.  He had no one else ready who could either hit .250 or drive the ball over the wall except fellow bench piece (and outfielder) Juan Lagares. 

Lucas Duda
When Duda got hurt (with Wright and Travis d’Arnaud both already ailing), there was a need to replace 75 or more home runs and about 250 RBIs.  Did he go out and find someone capable of filling that void?  No, he went the Rick Ankiel route and scrap picked someone who once was good but who even in his heyday was never a middle-of-the-order threat.  Granted, James Loney has been far better in his batting average by a hundred points, but actually is driving in runs at a lower rate than the now-out-of-baseball Rick Ankiel.  It was a cheap and easy solution for Alderson that took no brains nor courage nor risk.  Consequently the results, while positive, are not addressing the gap left by injuries. 

Kevin Plawecki
During the off-season it was revealed that Mr. Plawecki was having serious issues with his sinuses.  He described the dizziness as akin to feeling drunk.  The surgery was apparently successful, but on whose head lays the blame for continuing to trot him out there all season long when his physical malady was taking such a toll on him?  It’s easy to blame the often clueless manager, but was Sandy Alderson kept in the dark about this condition?  If so, whoever failed to tell him should be fired on the spot.  If he did know and didn’t address the issue, that’s another black mark on the so-called smartest guy in the room.  Of course, with the way Plawecki performed this year you have to wonder if the sinus thing was the only issue.  Sandy’s solution, of course, was to ink the highly sought-after .209 career hitting wonder, Rene Rivera, who flamed out of such powerhouse teams as the Mariners, Rays, Padres and Twins.  True to form, he’s hitting .182 and fanning in over 1/3 of his ABs.  I have called him the Hispanic Anthony Recker.

Michael Conforto
During last year’s offensive malaise the injuries to Michael Cuddyer had the Mets uncharacteristically reach down to the AA level to bring up Michael Conforto, skipping AAA altogether.  Part of that decision was to make Sandy’s heretofore bad drafts have at least one player perform as expected.  Part of it once again had to do with 40-man roster considerations.  The good news is that Conforto was not initially overwhelmed by the highest level of competition and despite the platoon happy manager benching him against most lefties (since the only way to learn to hit them is to watch them, not actually swing the bat) he looked like a major piece of the offensive puzzle for 2016.  Unfortunately after a decent April everything came apart for him during his sophomore slump yet Sandy Alderson felt it was best to keep trotting him out there while deflating his ego, retarding his development and contributing to the losing for more two full months until he was mercifully sent packing to get his mojo back. 

Curtis Granderson
The cries of “Curtis Bay” were mostly vanquished in 2015 when the former Yankee slugger put up a good season in the leadoff spot with 26 HRs, 70 RBIs, 11 SBs, a slightly better than average year .259 AVG and despite 151 Ks, he still managed to post a respectable .364 OBP.  There were many cries of “Sell high!” with regard to the Grandyman given the two very expensive years on his contract and his advancing age.  Apparently Sandy didn’t put batteries in his hearing aid and that advice was not heeded.  This year the HRs are there, but the RBIs are way down, the strikeouts continue high, the batting average is down and the OBP is way down.  Still, he’s going to get paid his remaining $31 million for this year and next combined.  Now the cherry on top is he’s hurt, too.  In characteristic Alderson fashion, the Mets opt to play shorthanded with guys who have never logged a professional inning of outfield duty (Matt Reynolds) being thrust into that role at the big league level.  Does this seem like the way a team that went to the World Series should operate?

The Replacements
No, I’m not talking about the surprisingly funny Keanu Reeves movie about strike busting scabs in the NFL, I’m talking about the collection of misfit toys Sandy Alderson thinks will propel the team over not only the Washington Nationals, but also now the Florida Marlins:

  • Ty Kelly
  • Matt Reynolds (some encouraging signs)
  • Eric Campbell
  • Kelly Johnson (adequate on the bench, should never start)
  • Brandon Nimmo (jury still out on him)
  • Rene Rivera
  • Seth Lugo
In a word, ugh!  Transfer David Wright and Lucas Duda to the 60-man DL.  Cut the fat from the 40-man roster.  Open up some spots and give chances to people who are succeeding at lower levels if you’re unwilling or unable to make trades or sign free agents.  The AAAA shuttle is not going to win the Indy 500.

Now baseball economics factor into every decision.  There are the number of player options to consider, service time clocks through which teams can artificially delay arbitration and free agency by holding top prospects back at the beginning of the year, and other considerations.

Still, it has to be frustrating to guys having minor league All-Star level seasons like Gavin Cecchini, Dilson Herrera, Travis Taijeron, TJ Rivera and others who are bypassed for the likes of Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly and even Matt Reynolds who was only hitting .230 in the PCL when he was promoted.  Shouldn’t decisions also be made about putting the best team possible on the field?

It’s Saturday and this afternoon teams are free to begin making offers on the crown jewel of free agency, Yulieski Gourriel.  He’s an above average third baseman who hits for high average and power.  It takes no players to acquire him and he doesn’t even count against the team’s international bonus pool because he’s over the age limit.  There is no excuse for the Mets not to make a serious offer to reunite him with Yoenis Cespedes.  If they fail to do so then they’re sending the clear signal to the fans that their aversion to risk of any kind trumps winning.  How quickly will fans forget 2015 when the team more closely resembles the ones from 2010-2012?  Remember the empty stands?  Remember the bags over the heads?  Remember when the Yankees owned NY?  Do you want that to happen again?

7/1/16

SUE FOR NON-SUPPORT?

SUE FOR NON-SUPPORT? by Tom Brennan


I did an article the other day about the miserable support the Mets have given "What's Wrong With" Matt Harvey (answer: nothing) over his 81 starts, that have left him with a mediocre 29-28 career mark and 24 NDs despite a 2.88 ERA and tons of Ks. 


He is not alone in Queens.


Wonderful pitcher Jake deGrom, despite a 3.12 ERA over his last 10 starts spanning 63 innings, and a K per inning, is a painful 0-4 with 6 NDs in those 10 starts.  Not...a...single...win. 


Some guys, though, have all the luck.  Yankee great Whitey Ford was 25-4, but with a higher 3.21 ERA, in 1961 - an ERA that of course would have been even higher had he had to face his own thundering teammates.  Jake, however, lacks the good fortune of being able to pitch against his inept teammates.


Time for Jake and Matt to sue in family court for non-support...because the Mets aren't giving them any.

TWO NOTABLE PROSPECT BATS

TWO NOTABLE PROSPECT BATS by Tom Brennan
 
 
Just a note for full disclosure. 
 
About 3 weeks back, I wrote that I was stopping my articles for Macks Mets.  Too many other life priorities, not enough time to do lengthy, comprehensive minors updates. 
 
Then I decided to try, try again, with a new M.O.:

 
If can write an article in 20 minutes or less, why not?
 
So that is what I decided to do.
 
This one is about 2 guys in the Mets minors who are worth focusing on:
 
Wuilmer Becerra and David Thompson.
 
Both have had injuries this year, Becerra's limiting him to 13 games in the field, with a trip to the DL, and Thompson also having an extended trip to the DL.
 
Becerra got off to an astonishing 36 for 85 (.424) start with St Lucie, but then I am guessing the injury began to impact him as he went just 20 for 102 after that - but then in the last 3 games, he erupted, going 10 for 15 with 7 ribbies, hitting with such success that WB MUST be feeling better. 
 
Thru Wednesday, he is sitting at .335 despite the injury, good enough to lead the league by 26 points. He does eschew the base on balls with just 9 in 52 games, but he can clearly hit.  His power has amped a bit lately, though he has just a single homer so far.
 
David Thompson actually has missed 20 of the Fireflies' 77 games or he'd truly have eye-popping RBI stats. 
 
The 3rd baseman and 4th rounder in 2015 has a superb 56 RBIs in 57 games.  That leads the league by 6 RBIs, despite all the missed games. Incredible.
 
While the rest of his stat line is not other-worldly, it is quite good: .296/.346/.484, and he has hit a splendid .384 with runners in scoring position. 
 
Maybe he is David Wright's heir apparent.
 
My 20 minutes are up.  See ya.