Mack,
Thanks for the work you do on the site. It ‘s very informative. My question is about getting ready for 2014. I think the Mets are really only a good Right Fielder away from competing in 2014 … no, I don’t think they’d challenge the Nats for NL east title, but could certainly make a run at one of the WC spots. I think the rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Montero, one of Gee/Hefner/Mejia and a bullpen anchored by DeGrom, Familia, and Parnell in 7,8,9 roles and Edgin as the primary lefty could be very good. Potential line-up could look something like this: Valdespin (lf), Flores (2b), Wright, Davis, RFer, D’Arnaud, Den Dekker, Tejada. I’m assuming Den Dekker can hit around .230 with 15+ HRs … that should be acceptable with his D.
So, my question is what would the Mets have to give up to get someone like Mike Olt? Theoretically, Mets could have Buck, Duda, Murphy, one of Gee/Hefner available to trade at the deadline this summer. Could some package of these players plus a minor league arm like Mateo get it done? I don’t want to trade Syndergaard. A future (starting 2015?) rotation of Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, Syndergaard, Montero could make us dominant for a while, and frankly, I think is necessary to compete with the Nats. You never know when any one of these pitchers will get hurt or fail … so, really don’t want to give up Fulmer or Tapia either. It’s not often a team gets to have the kind of pitching depth the Mets have in the farm, and I think it’s prudent to be very stingy with those arms in potential trades.
Thanks for your thoughts,
Zach P.
First of all, thank you for your readership and your email.
Your first paragraph seems to have the 2014 team tagged and, yes, it is pretty close to a winner. I project this team out sort of like the Nationals over the past four years... 10 more wins a year beginning in 2014.
I think you're being aggressive asking den Dekker to hit 15-HRs in 2014, but, you are right, a .230 batting average would be fine for a guy that's going to win you three games with his glove.
Regarding Olt, here's the problem.
The game is changing as I write this. Today alone, Justin Verlander and Buster Posey received long term extensions. This is the future of this game. Teams are going to be built with draft picks and UDFA out of Latin America. Players that excel during their minor league career will be offerrd 3-5 year extensions beginning with their first arbitration year. No one is going to let their talent run away, and, because most of these years were under team control, the team received quite a discount for their services over the long run.
Future monies will be invested in more extensive scouting systems and better training facilities throughout the system.
Olt is not Wilmer Flores or Aderlin Rodriguez, who are both one dimensional and show no ability to play the corner outfield positions. The projection is he can easily move over to first or play either corner, so there is no immediate pressure to trade him or Adrian Beltre.
Frankly, you have a better chance of working out a deal for Beltre and taking over his last two years (2014-2015) for $35mil.
Remember, this is a team that is going to lose OF Nelson Cruz after the 2013 season as well as C A.J. Pierzynski and OF David Murphy. The last thing this team is going to do is trade away a guy this young and talented that is still under team control for 5 more years.
1 comment:
I don't think you've got the entire story here though Mack. Sure, there will be more players locked up to extensions and kept off the free agent market. That doesn't mean that young players will suddenly become unreadable too. In fact, I think you're going to see an increase in trades with these deals being signed.
As far as Texas goes, Ryan/Daniels know their window is in danger of closing, especially after losing in the WS twice and losing Wilson and Hamilton to a division rival. If they think there is a player or players on the market that will put them over, they'll sacrifice Olt to do it. The win-now/rebuild dichotomy between teams in MLB will not change even if more teams are following the 90s Cleveland Indians model. Remember, they produced Brian Giles, Richie Sexson, and got Burnitz on the cheap from the Mets. All were eventually traded, not the vets in front of them.
Olt is eminently available. The Rangers get too much production from Beltre to trade him as it may take Olt 2-3 years to reach his potential at the major league level. Too risky for a club that doesn't want to be known as the team that used to be good.
Defensively he can probably handle other positions but his value will be greatly decreased as he had gold glove potential at 3B.
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