Aidan Cooke - Mets Minor Leaguer Matt O'Neill is Having Quite the Unorthodox Year

     

In 2019, the Mets drafted college catcher Matt O'Neill with their 20th pick. O'Neill, who was 21 years old at the time, played for the University of Pennsylvania Quakers, where he was a First-Team All-Ivy selection and set the school record for walks in a season. 

    O'Neill carried his plate discipline skills over to his professional career. In his minor league debut season, O'Neill combined for 20 walks between the Gulf Coast League and Kingsport Mets. He only had 124 plate appearances total, meaning O'Neill posted a very impressive 16.1% walk rate. He added 30 strikeouts to his walks, though, meaning that O'Neill either walked or K'd in 40% of his at bats.

    With so many walks and strikeouts, one might assume that O'Neill fits the "three true outcomes" mold that is becoming more and more popular in today's game. It consists of hitters who end most of their trips to the plate with a walk, strikeout, or home run. But the problem is that O'Neill doesn't possess much power. In 2019, he only had 1 home run and a .SLG of .375, which was actually lower than his .411 OBP.

    In 2021, though, O'Neill's strikeouts and walks have both risen to incredibly high numbers. Across 47 games and 175 plate appearances, O'Neill has accumulated 44 walks and 68 strikeouts, meaning that 25.1% of his at bats end in a walk and 38.9% result in a strikeout. Additionally, he only has 25 hits; a player having more walks than hits is very uncommon, but Matt almost has twice as many BBs and Ks.

    O'Neill is slashing .198/.411/.294. No, that is not a typo. And somehow, he has found a way to be an above-average hitter, owning a 114 wRC+ and .368 wOBA. Even though his average is only .198, Matt's batting average on balls in play (a.k.a. BABIP) is a lofty .368. It is incredibly rare to see someone with such a low batting average and a high BABIP, but it just shows how few balls O'Neill has put in play. 

    This season, O'Neill has moved past the "three true outcomes" label and become the king of "two true outcomes" hitting. 64% of his plate appearances end in a strikeout or a walk. For reference, the highest three true outcomes total in a major league season since 1900 (with 170 PAs minimum) is Joey Gallo's 63.3% figure in 2019. O'Neill beats it out, even without the addition of an entirely different outcome.

    Of course, it is a small sample, even when including his 2019 season. At 24 years old and in Single-A ball, O'Neill isn't even likely to make the major leagues in his career, especially with his lack of power. But what O'Neill is doing right now may have never been seen at the professional level, and he has shown himself to be an anomaly in a game of numbers.