Mack: Draft Talk- Q and A with Brian Recca of SF Draft Talk (Part 1)

 

Brian Recca does some wonderful draft work on his Twitter account, SF Draft Talk… @brian_recca   reccabrian.wixsite.com/sfdrafttalk 

He was gracious enough to grant me a Q and A this week and here is Part 1, the first five questions I asked (the rest post up on Monday 11am):

 

Mack - Brian, tell us a little background information on you. I see from your Twitter account that you have been a draft weenie since 2011 and you are a big SF Giants fan. Is this a hobby for you, like mine is for me, or  have you written for one of the baseball/prospect sites?

Brian - I’ve been a huge baseball fan my whole life. I’m from northern New Jersey and my family has been Giants fans dating back to when they played at the Polo Grounds. I grew up watching Mets games with my dad and my first favorite player was Edgardo Alfonzo. I played baseball but was drawn more to watching and learning about the game and players. I started getting into analytics and advanced stats after reading Moneyball in high school. Fangraphs.com was my default web page for many, many years. My love for the game has grown over time and I love to consume baseball info from a wide range of viewpoints and sources. Lately, I’ve been really digging into player development and baseball technology.  

I started getting into the draft around 2011. I spent a lot of time on John Sickels’ old site minorleagueball.com and loved to the draft content and forum discussions there. I started investing more and more of my free time into amateur baseball and draft-related content. It’s been my most passionate hobby for a while now and it’s something I can turn to whenever I need a distraction from everyday life. I was encouraged by some of my Giants social media friends to start tweeting and providing draft information. The last few years I’ve really ramped up my draft involvement and it’s been an awesome experience. In years past there wasn’t anywhere close to as much information available on amateur ballplayers. Now we have streaming services like ESPN+, televised/streamed high school showcases and tournaments, and a wealth of info available through social media. I make an MLB draft database every year that’s filled with tons of info on draft prospects. I spend a lot of time watching games, hunting for clips/videos/player info, and reading reports on players and then using that info to inform my opinions and fill the database with content. The 2022 version should be ready for public consumption (it’s free!) sometime this month.  

I have received offers to write for some sites but I’ve decided against it for now. I’m happy with my day job (I’m a special ed. teacher) and would like my draft/prospect stuff to remain a hobby. I want this to remain fun and I worry that making it about money could damage that. I might give it a try sometime down the road, but I’m happy where things stand. 

Mack -    Do you have a general philosophy about how teams should draft? “Best player available”, position of choice, or combo of the two?

Brian - I would like to say that best player available (BPA) is the only way to go. But because so much of the draft is tied up with bonuses, you often have to get creative. What we saw from the Pirates this year is an excellent example of this. The Pirates might say that Henry Davis was the top player on their board but I’d bet that his selection was also bonus driven. Instead of paying a much larger bonus to someone like Jack Leiter, they took a player they felt was of comparable talent for much less money. They then used the savings to sign a slew of high priced players in later rounds. The Pirates ended up with 3 players I had in my top 30 (Davis, Bubba Chandler, and Lonnie White Jr.) and added a few more exciting talents in Anthony Solometo, Owen Kellington, and Braylon Bishop. That almost certainly wouldn't happen if they followed the BPA philosophy. I think instead of “best player available” it needs to be “best value available”.

I feel like the back half of day 2 (rounds 7+) and all of day 3 (rounds 10+) are where you can start targeting positions and specific types of profile. I typically like when teams load up on pitching later on because of the rate of attrition that comes with young pitchers. Having pitching depth is so important in this day and age. I also believe teams are able to develop pitching much more effectively than hitters at this stage. Grabbing extra pitching provides more opportunity to find/develop a diamond in the rough.  

 

Mack -  Let’s first talk Giants, do you consider their system currently deep in talent? Also, I see you have some of the guys I have written about in the past… Joey Bart, Hunter Bishop, Patrick Bailey, Sean Hjelle… what are the names of a couple of guys that have the potential to be superstars in this game?

 Brian   - The Giants are in a very good place. Not only do they have some high end talents like Marco Luciano and Luis Matos, they have strong depth. The front office under Farhan Zaidi has done a great job of finding talent in a variety of ways. The international side is the best it’s been in over a decade. They have acquired and developed quality prospects through trades, minor league free agency, and in the later rounds of the draft. It’s really been a “no stone unturned” type of talent acquisition and that extends to the major league level as well. It’s hard not to be optimistic about the Giants future.

If anything, it’s the early draft picks that have struggled the most. I still think Bart will be a dependable major league catcher but probably not a star. Bishop and Bailey have struggled. Bishop has barely gotten on the field since being drafted because of injuries. You can’t even evaluate him at this point. Bailey was overmatched as a hitter at high A which is a concern for a college bat from a power conference. He’s been much better at low A but that pick was highly questionable at the time given some of the names on the board (Tyler Soderstrom, Mick Abel, Garrett Mitchell, etc.). Hjelle is a no-frills type pitcher that doesn’t totally do it for me. He’s going to be a major leaguer but I’m not sure he’ll be much of an impact performer. Although, teams certainly need those guys to fill rotations and eat innings.

 I mentioned outfielder Luis Matos a bit earlier. I think there’s a good chance he's a top 30 overall prospect this time next year. He’s such an advanced hitter for his age. He’s a great athlete and his body is both strong and projectable. Matos is only 19 but could move quickly because of his knowledge of the strike zone and propensity for quality contact. He’s a special talent that I predict will start commanding a lot more attention in 2022. I was a huge fan of Will Bednar for the 2021 draft as he was 13th on my board. He didn’t have a long track record of dominance but he really started to blossom at the end of the college season. Bednar checks both the scouting and analytical boxes and has the ingredients to be a frontline starter. He’s probably the player I’m most excited to see play next year among Giants prospects. 

 

Mack - Okay, moving to the general draft, it’s no big secret that the Mets blew it with the Kumar Rocker pick. In your opinion, what went wrong here?

Brian - That was such a bizarre turn of events. I’m a big Rocker fan and was looking forward to seeing him in pro ball.  I don’t have any inside knowledge of what happened but I have a theory.

My guess is that the team wasn’t expecting Rocker to drop to their spot at #10. The Mets asked what his number was, Rocker said $6MM, and the Mets agreed. They decided to make the pick at 10 because of the (admittedly) great value he represented at that spot, even though they didn’t have access to his medical records beforehand. After reviewing his medical info the Mets did not feel comfortable giving him the agreed bonus. Again, I don’t know for sure what happened, but this makes the most sense to me.

Losing out on an arm like Rocker certainly hurts. But getting an additional 1st round pick in 2022 (a stronger draft, in my opinion) softens most of that blow. What really makes the whole thing a failure was the way the rest of that draft went for the Mets. They saved a ton of bonus money with their other picks that they intended to put towards Rocker and had nowhere to move those funds once the deal was off. Typically, teams who go way overslot on a player like that will have backup picks after the 10th round as an insurance policy. For example, the Diamondbacks selected shortstop Davis Diaz in the 12th round in case Jordan Lawlar didn’t sign. The Mets didn’t do that. Instead, they had around $2MM in bonus money left sitting on the table. They could have added a legitimate talent with that kind of money. That’s gross mismanagement. 

Mack -   Do you consider this a deep draft and what specific positions do you consider well stocked in this draft?

Brian -   On paper the 2022 draft is a better year than the past few by a fairly significant margin. That can change but it’s shaping up to be a pretty strong class. There’s some high end talent at the top and a healthy amount of depth as well. Obviously, the last two drafts were very different because of Covid-19. There were a ton of challenges and it makes it hard to compare this year’s draft to 2020/2021. Maybe it’s just the amateur baseball landscape looking more “normal” but I’m feeling optimistic with the strength of this class.

This crop of college catchers looks particularly strong. Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech), Hayden Dunhurst (Ole Miss), Logan Tanner (Mississippi State), and Daniel Susac (Arizona) could all be 1st rounders.

On the prep side, the outfield group is pretty strong. The top of that group is really impressive with Elijah Green (Florida) and Druw Jones (Georgia) but there’s also a ton of depth as well. It also looks like a good year for prep lefties. I’m a big fan of Brandon Barriera (Florida) and I could see both Tristan Smith (South Carolina) and Noah Schultz (Illinois) going in the 1st round. Fellow lefties like Jackson Ferris (Florida), Robby Snelling (Nevada), and Joseph King (Tennessee) could land in the 1-2 round range if they continue to progress.

I think one position group that feels a bit light is the college pitching. The pitching depth at the college level was phenomenal the past couple of years. Part of that was the 5 round draft in 2020 pushing a lot of talented and experienced college arms back to campus. I wouldn’t say that college pitching is weak in 2022 but it’s a step down from what we’ve seen recently.

Check back on Monday for Part 2.

Mack