Reese Kaplan -- A Different Approach to Promoting Brett Baty

As the trade deadline approaches no one is sure what to expect from the front office.  During the first game of July it appears that the Mets have followed up on their strong June the same way with a come-from-behind effort against the Nationals.  Many on the fence about buy or sell are going to have to wait for a philosophical and business decision made on expiring contracts and the hot hitting of Brett Baty in AAA. 

What occurred to me just recently watching regular All Star slugger J.D. Martinez is not only how much he has helped the club after his late start, but also how instrumental he has been in seeing a few of the younger hitters all of the sudden step up a level.  

We all know how markedly better the should-be All Star catcher Francisco Alvarez has been.  Today, however, let’s take a little look more closely at Mark Vientos.

Thus far everyone is focused on what he’s doing now with the bat while at the same time griping about how he plays the field and chomping at the bit to hand the position over to Brett Baty.  I’m certainly one who has advocated playing both of them for all of August and September to help decide what you have here with their overall abilities.  The question is how and where.

For the most part people have envisioned having Vientos make a diagonal trek across the diamond to man first base assuming the decision is made to peddle away free-agent-to-be Pete Alonso.  While that would be a seemingly acceptable solution, Alonso would be leaving massive shoes to fill and Vientos would forever be associated as the cause rather than the effect of the club trading away their all-time best home run hitter.  No matter how well Vientos did there if he didn’t hit 40 HRs people would gripe.

Curiosity got the better of me while watching J.D. Martinez in Monday’s game.  He is hitting a highly respectable .274 with 9 HRs and 34 RBIs over 208 ABs.  That is a pace a little low on power but tracking close to 100 RBIs if he had played a full season.  His slugging percentage is .476 and his OBP is .831.  Those two numbers are slightly below his career norms, but no one here is complaining that the $12 million man is not worth every penny paid. 

Not to be unfair to Pete Alonso, but his 17 HRs and 46 are certainly desirable.  Unfortunately his SLG of .474 and his OBP of .808 are good but not even up to the level that the 36 year old Martinez is delivering. 

Now comes the surprising part.  Mark Vientos is hitting over .300, has 10 HRs and 26 RBIs in 139 ABs with a SLG of .585 and an OPS of .947.  Now the batting average is probably the biggest surprise and as the league adjusts to him as a regular player those other metrics may tick down a bit as well. 

The funky idea that hit me was perhaps the Mets do their very best to extend hometown hero Pete Alonso, trade away solid hitting J.D. Martinez and instead of Vientos crossing over to 1st base, have him take over the DH duties which would also remove his below average fielding from the game and open up a spot for Brett Baty to play.  

There should be no long term loyalty for Martinez who is a first year Met and will be 37 next season.  Obviously he would cost far less than would Alonso, but this approach would be creating a way for all of Alonso, Vientos and Baty to be in the lineup every day.

All that being said, of course, you still have to figure out what to do with Starling Marte once he recovers.  I have a feeling the Mets will be insisting he come back by the end of the third week of July to show for a week he’s healthy enough to play to open up a trade opportunity, though if they keep him as he enters his later 30s and suffering with defense in RF perhaps he is a viable DH candidate as well.

SAVAGE VIEWS – Act Two

Here we are at the midway point of the season and the Mets are a mediocre 40-41.  At the start of the season, many contributors to this site would have been happy to be sitting where we are now.  We easily, though, could have won at least another 6-7 games if the bullpen was simply average. 

While our pen has performed below expectations, much of the blame can be laid at the feet of Diaz.  Clearly, entering a crucial point of the year without our closer has had a negative impact.

Funny, but in just a few weeks we went from vying for a lottery pick in next year’s draft to being one of the better teams in baseball. Remember when we were considered to be light years away from the Braves? Now we are in competition with them for a wild-card spot.  Injuries can be a great equalizer.  

The Yankees are ranked as a top five team.  The reality is that we field a stronger lineup one through nine with a better bench. Except for the dynamic duo of Judge and Soto the Yankees’ lineup is underwhelming. The Yankees pen is the difference maker.

Prior to the season, I projected the Mets as a playoff bound team. I also predicted they would average about 5 runs per game – they are just short of that number. Their offensive numbers are up in spite of below average production from McNeil and Alonso, although there have been recent signs of each improving. In my wildest imagination I could not have forecast Nimmo leading the team in RBIs at the half-way point.

There’s no disagreement on what needs to be done to remain competitive. The starting rotation needs to provide greater depth and the bullpen needs to be greatly improved.  Getting Diaz back is a major plus, but more is needed.  

We have the resources to acquire a top-of-the-line reliever whether it’s trading from our surplus of SPs or moving prospects.  Help may already be in our system if Megill and Peterson are moved to the pen, as they should be.  Neither has shown the capability to get past four innings as starters.

It befuddles me that Stewart is making his way into the lineup and in the five spot no less. We should look for an upgrade.  Also, I would take offers for JD Martinez.  JD has had a nice stretch where he was the best hitter on the team. His trade value is probably high and perhaps will result in a nice return. It’s time to bring back Baty to determine if he’s a viable option for 2025.

Once again, another interesting week lies ahead.  I would not be satisfied with anything less than winning five of seven.

July 1, 2024

MACK -.Tuesday Morning Observations

 

Morning.

Look, the 2024 future of right field is fluid. The new injury to Starling Marte has created some questions. When can he begin to ramp up? When will he be back in right? Will these injuries continue?

One of the solutions would be to bring in a rental that specializes in that position for a mid-level chip.

So, I went to mlbtr.com and downloaded all the names of right fielders that are scheduled to become free agents at the end of this season. We will discuss the current teams they are on later.

They, and their current stat line, are:

Brian Anderson - Atlanta- 

   .000, 0-HR, 0-RBI

Michael Conforto - SF

   .232, 9-HR, 29-RBI

Joey Gallo - Nats

   .164, 5-HR, 23-RBI

Randal Grichuk - D-Backs

   .294, 2-HR, 17-RBI

Teoscar Hernandez - LAD

   .252, 18-HR, 55-RBI

Jason Heyward - LAD

   .220, 4-HR, 17-RBI

Max Kepler - Minny 

   .245, 6-HR, 28-RBI

Whit Merriman - Philly 

   .195, 3-HR, 9-RBI

Hunter Renroe - KC

   .202, 7-HR, 27-RBI

Anthony Santander- Balt 

   .228, 21-HR, 53-RBI

Alex Verdugo - NYY

   .247, 9-HR, 41-RBI

Thoughts...

   - slim pickings

   - KC (Renfroe), Minny (Kepler), Arizona (Grichuk), SF (Conforto), the Dodgers (Hernandez) and the Orioles (Santander) are in the middle of their own race, so picking one of these  off the tree seems slim.

   - That leaves Verdugo (NYY), who is in the middle of a horrible slump and is a free agent next season. The Yanks would probably demand a top chip for this guy.

The option of Tyler Megill to Syracuse could be the last time we see him as a starter. My guess is he will replace Jose Butto as the long term SP1 upstate, but the Mets may want to take this opportunity to begin converting him into a reliever. 

Lastly...

We all know the Mets need relievers. And I think it is safe to say that the Mets will be adding at least one rental this month to the pen. The question is what will this cost the Mets.

Teams that trade rentals are trying to lower team salaries, so we should assume one or more of our affiliate prospects will be on the chopping block. Which ones? Well, I don't know for certain, but this would be my list of prospects that are safe, and the ones that aren't:

Syracuse - 

  safe:  Christian Scott, Jose Butto, Luisangel Acuna

  not safe:  Blade Tidwell, Luke Ritter, Brett Baty

Binghamton - 

  safe:  Brandon Sproat

  not safe:  Alex Ramirez, Kevin Parada, Ryan                                 Clifford, Jett Williams

Brooklyn -

  safe:  Nick Morabito, Douglas Orellana 

  not safe:  Jesus Baez, Christopher Suero,

            Jonah Tong, Nick Lorusso, Kade Morris

St. Lucie and below:

  safe:   no one

Mets Moves: 

      LHRP Tyler Jay promoted  from AAA

      RHRP Matt Festa promoted from AAA

      LHRP Brooks Raley to 60-day IL

   Syracuse:

      RHRP Carlos Guzman promoted from AA

      RHSP Tylor Megill reassigned from Mets

      LHRP Danny Young reassigned from Mets

    Binghamton:

      OF Duke Ellis DFA'd

    St. Lucie:

       IF Diego Mosquera transferred from FCL

    FCL:

       OF Jeffry Rosa transferred from St. Lucie

       C Andriel Lantigua traded to Colorado

   

Tom Brennan: Hogan Windish; Bryce Montes de Oca; and Dead Wood

Bryce Montes de Oca Ten Years Ago - He Impressed Over the Weekend 

You never heard of Hogan Windish?  Me neither.

Probably for good reason. He usually doesn't hit very well, as it turns out.

Other than one particularly noteworthy game this week, Windish has hit just 3 HRs and driven in just 21 runs in 2024 while hitting just .205.

Pretty mediocre.

Oh, but that one other game...

In it, Seattle prospect Windish hit 4 HRs and drove in all 9 runs for his team.

Baseball is interesting, wouldn't you say?

Bryce Montes de Oca? 

He has put up back to back stellar one inning relief outings for the AA Ponies.

First of the two games, 7 pitches, 6 strikes, 1-2-3.

Sunday's game, 10 pitches, 7 strikes. two strikeouts, and 1-2-3.

Maybe the healthy elbow is allowing the rehabbing Oak to throw in a more unrestricted fashion, and more accurately.  

Small sample, sure, but....

Keep this up, and he'll be back in Queens soon.   

BULLPEN - AND DEAD WOOD

Yes, the bullpen was capsized by Sticky Edwin, whose perfidy engulfed Drew Smith, too.

The bullpen flopped 2 straight games.  I put that in large part on Edwin. 

But before making the pen the sole culprit, the continual light hitting of McNeil (.217), Taylor (.229) and Stewart (.183) continued, as the trio combined to go 0 for 13.  Dump one of those three tomorrow, now that the series is over, and let's get real hitters.  We're in a real pennant race, no time for coddling. 

What’s that, you say? You’re sure, now that 81 games are in the books, that in the next 81 games, all 3 will hit .300?  Then Dr. Ronny Jackson wants to test you for mental acuity, too.

Open Thread: Happy With Nimmo Contract, Or Not?

Some feel the Nimmo 8 year, $160 million contract that runs him through age 37 was a bad one, and see evidence of badness in his declining offense.

Yes, the 31 year old Nimmo is only hitting .247.

But his OBP in 2024 is a still-strong .368, close to his career norms.  

And exclude his 1 for 21 in his first 5 games, which were essentially played inside a Frigidaire, and he has hit a solid .260 since.

He hit .315/.406/.598 in June, so has he just had a slow start that has now corrected itself?  Seems absolutely so.

And what is slow about 50 RBIs in 77 games played, especially when in 40 of those games, he was batting lead off?  

50 RBIs is 22nd best in baseball, very impressive for a player who has batted lead off in the majority of his games.

He is hitting .338/.466/.592 with runners in scoring position this year.

So…

They signed Nimmo for 8 years (6 years to run after this year). Even  though he is paid a level $20 million a year, one would expect age-related decline into his later 30s, so I estimated below his “age-based salary” (if you tried to match his expected age-related performance to dollars, which is what they really are paying him for).  

The club understood that, and so did Nimmo, when he signed the $162 million deal, that his best production was likely to occur in the contract’s early years.

His age-adjusted contract, had it been signed that way, would probably have been more like $30MM year 1, $27MM year 2, $24MM year 3, $21MM year 4, $19MM year 5, $16MM year 6, $13MM year 7, and $10MM year 8.  

In other words, when they signed that contract with him, they expected him at age 30 to play like a $30MM player, and this year to play like a $27MM player.  

In 2023, he production-wise appeared to be a $30MM-equivalent player (.274/.363/.466 in 152 games, with 24 HRs, 36 doubles/triples, 74 RBIs (again, mostly as a lead off hitter), and 89 runs scored.  

His RBIs and very solid OBP so far in 2024 clearly seem to support a $27MM-equivalent ballplayer salary.  And he has been very durable in 2023 and 2024.

Continuing to think along this logical approach, it appears they are satisified they properly paid him for 2023 and 2024, and really hope he will provide $103 million in value in 2025-30, over the last 6 years ($160MM - ($30MM year 1 + $27MM year 2)), even though he’ll actually get paid $120 million over the last 6 years.

So...is Nimmo's contract looking to you a bad contract or good contract, and why?

Paul Articulates – We need some relief

The Mets have continued to show some mettle, as they battled the red-hot Astros in a three game series with two very close games.  Unfortunately, they also showed their greatest weakness, which cost them the chance to take the series.  Of course I am talking about the bullpen.

The Mets have had some success this year with their bullpen, but recently it has been much harder to find bright spots.  The loss of Brooks Raley to season-ending injury earlier this year hurt.  Certainly the lack of a great closer in all but a few games has been most painful.  The recent news that Drew Smith was gone to surgery as well was another gut punch to the pen.  

I still believe that the biggest issue has been the inability of the starters to go deep into games.  Tylor Megill’s 5.1 inning start on Saturday followed an inexcusable 93 pitch four inning start by Jose Quintana.  Those two starts forced another overuse of the bullpen and left Carlos Mendoza with very few cards in his hand as the Mets’ Sunday comeback pushed the game into extra innings.  So in the 11th inning of a winnable game, Mendoza had to turn to a first time Major Leaguer to hold down a very hot Houston team.

Matt Festa was a reasonable call-up when the Mets needed bullpen help.  He had pitched to a 0.91 WHIP with a .204 average against in 11 games at the AAA level.  This is the kind of guy you want to use in the 7th inning of a not-so-close game to see how his stuff translates at the next level.  

Instead, he was thrust into a role where he had to open the inning with a man on second and needed a shut-down inning.  Festa pitched reasonably well, getting several two strike counts, but just didn’t have a put-away pitch so the major league hitters on the Astros treated him to an unfriendly welcome party by scoring five runs.

The Mets’ pen is not totally bad – though they are worn out.  Adrian Houser was a pleasant surprise when his duty moved from back end starter to bull pen long man.  Raley, Smith, and Sean Reid-Foley all performed pretty well when they were fully healthy.  

Dedniel Nunez and Danny Young have produced some good innings and even Jorge Lopez looked good early in the season before he lost his glove as well as his job.  But how many times can you go to the well to find more arms to replace injured, suspended, or just plain tired pitchers?  

The Mets just need relief, and they are going to have to look for it in the mid-season trades.  Whether we wanted it or not, the Mets will not be sellers at the deadline.  Accepting that, the front office has to turn their attention to who might be available and how much it will cost.  That is not an easy target, because most teams in contention are always looking to strengthen their pen for the stretch run.  

There certainly will not be a Josh Hader out there to acquire, so the target will more likely be someone in middle relief that can take the pressure off Nunez, Ottavino, Diekman, Garrett, and eventually Diaz.

I still wonder why that middle relief has not come in the form of a Tylor Megill or David Peterson, who like Houser have not turned in many quality starts this year, but are still capable of getting outs against MLB teams.  Kodai Senga has still not returned, but there are guys like Jose Butto, Christian Scott, and maybe even Joey Lucchesi that can offer starts if Megill and/or Peterson gets moved to the pen.  

It has not happened yet, so I believe there must be some tangible reason that the Mets are reluctant to make that move.   Maybe it has to do with the fact that some of the front line pitching prospects like Mike Vasil, Dom Hamel, and Blade Tidwell have not progressed as fast in AAA as expected.

That is why, especially at this time of year that we look to the trade market.  It is just a difficult time to do so with so many teams competing for so many wild card spots and very few teams going into full sell mode.  

It will be very interesting to see how the month of July plays out.  What kind of internal moves are going to be made before the deadline, and what will the fall-out be after the deadline?  

The results will become a telling sign on the effectiveness of all the moves made in the front office and player development areas in recent years.  This is when they earn their keep.

Reese Kaplan -- When to Give Up on a Failed Prospect

One of the most frequent question with no clear answer is how long do you give a young player who delivered handily in the minor leagues but seems to have hit the wall with a promotion to the majors?  

Sometimes you have a player who is given season after season to establish himself both on the field and at the plate (if a hitter).  Or you have a pitcher who needs to be difficult to hit and show the health necessary to perform regularly without needing the Hubbel telescope to find the strike zone. 

An example of the former close to home would be Tomas Nido who has had 845 major league at bats, is now 30 years old and owns a career .212 batting average. 

Some could easily argue that his extended look from 2017 through 2024 was far more than enough.  When he was DFA’d this time he was hitting just .125.  It’s highly unlikely he would ever hit a magic switch and convert himself into a player who wouldn’t make you involuntarily cringe every time he stepped to the plate.

Also a quite familiar name to Mets fans would be the example of just farmed out Tylor Megill.  Now many might right to say that the move was done to help fortify the team during its 17 game stretch without a day off when the club is already without Edwin Diaz temporarily, Brooks Raley and now Drew Smith as well.  

However, dig a little deeper and you see that his 2024 performance does not reflect his mostly solid spring training, but more similar to the rest of his career.  

His current ERA is 5.08 which is actually worse than the 4.76 we’d come to expect, his WHIP is a cautionary 1.44 and the best thing you can say is that his strikeout numbers have increased to 11.5 per 9 IP.  Having already appeared in 66 major league games (60 as a starter) he has had the aggregate of about two full pitching years to show what he can do.  

Unless they figure to convert him into a short term hard throwing reliever, the now 28 year old’s prospect window has slammed shut as a member of the starting rotation. 

Now it’s not always like this with slow starters.  The Hall of Fame example, of course, is third baseman Mike Schmidt who started his career looking absolutely nothing like the hitter he would become.  During a 40 AB first look in 1972 he hit a sallow .206 without showing much.  During 1973 when he had a full rookie season his batting average dropped to .196 with over 33% of his ABs ending in strikeout.  

No one could foresee that the following year he would make the All Star team, his batting average would jump to .282 and the run production was terrific with 36 HRs and 116 RBIs.  He even threw in 23 SBs, too.  He hadn’t even yet earned the first of his total of 9 straight Gold Gloves plus an extra one later on. 

On the pitching side of the ledger, strikeout artist Randy Johnson is a great example as well.  He was a rookie in 1989 when he went 7-13 with a Megill-like ERA of 4.76.  It wasn’t until 1993 that he started to look like the Cooperstown bound pitcher he would become all well after the age of 30.  

That season he finished 2nd by one vote in the Cy Young Award voting by going 19-8 with a 3.24 ERA and leading the league with 308 strikeouts.  He would go on to win 5 Cy Young Awards, earn 303 wins and finish his career with 4875 strikeouts. 

So that brings us back to the original question.  How long do you wait and endure mediocrity in the hope that a hitter or pitcher will deliver what you foresaw for many years?  David Stearns is going to have to deal with this question on not just Megill, but also with David Peterson and others.  

The jury is still out on youngster Brett Baty, though it would appear that the strikeout and error prone Mark Vientos has shown enough with the bat to say he’s no longer a question mark.