Since the All-Star break the Mets have won 6 of 10 games. A 60% winning percentage is pretty solid and if sustained for the balance of the season, the Mets would wind up with 88 wins and most likely make the playoffs.
A closer analysis reveals a
number of troubling signs.
Splitting four games with the Marlins was the first indication that things are not going as planned. Winning less than 3 out of 4 from the worst team in the NL was concerning. While it was nice to beat the Braves in a game started by Chris Sale, the fact remains that they got only two hits and the game was handed to them thanks to the ineptitude play of the Braves in that game.
Fortunately, Lindor and
McNeil were able to carry the team to victories over the past 10 games. The reality is that the rest of the starting
nine have made minimal contributions.
THE THREE METSKETEERS
1.
JD
Martinez appears to
have lost his magic bat – I would not be unhappy if he gets moved by the trade
deadline. His signing was in opposition to
the grand plan which was to give younger players the ability to prove
themselves in 2024. Baty should be
manning third while Vientos serves as DH.
2.
Pete
Alonso If Pete had
met expectations, he’d be sitting at around 32 homers with 80 RBIs. It’s been
awhile since Pete has produced meaningful results. His numbers are not far off
the much maligned Alex Verdugo of the Yanks.
3.
Brandon
Nimmo has caught
the plague that Lindor had to start the season. Of this trio, I expect Nimmo to
get back on track soon.
No doubt Alvarez will be a future all-star if he stays healthy. His handling of the pitching staff has been outstanding. However, his offensive numbers have fallen off the roof. I expect him to recover and I like having Vientos in the lineup.
Iglesias has been a god-send, but he is still
just a utility player propelled into the starting lineup. The addition of
Jesse Winkler is a plus over DJ Stewart. No matter how you add it up, the Mets
lack the big bat in the middle of the lineup. No one in the lineup strikes fear
in the minds of opposing pitchers.
PITCHING BLUES
The loss of
Senga and to a lesser degree Scott have dealt a devastating blow to the staff.
The bullpen remains in shambles even with recent additions of Maton and Stanek.
I expect the next move will be to DFA Diekman. Oops, I just learned that
Diekman has been DFAd.
If they acquire a SP by the deadline, then Megill needs to
be moved to the pen. His track record has been solid until the fourth or fifth
inning when he routinely runs out of steam. Time to make the obvious move with
Megill. Peterson is another candidate for the pen assuming a second SP is
added. Perhaps, it’s time to see what we have in Hamel and Vasil.
OUTLOOK
Until now, I’ve been optimistic about the Mets making the playoffs.
In my opinion, losing Senga is the straw that broke the camels back. Even
though the schedule gets easier in August, I no longer see a path for the Mets
to qualify for a wild-card spot.
Ray
July 30, 2024
14 comments:
It's a better final stretch to the trade deadline than .500 would have been. They did pretty well against the Yankees and split with the Braves. They actually showed some heart which has been lacking most of the season. Unfortunately they have been far too tolerant of what hasn't been working (Mr. Stewart, for example) but now he's in the rearview mirror, too.
Ray, whaddya think about that 15-2 explosion last night? This game of baseball? You just never know. Hopefully, we get Nunez, Scott and Garrett back soon. But let’s also see what Stearns does over the next day or so.
McNeil is McNeil again. As such? A Big “up” factor in their decision to buy or sell. Winker will help a lot too, I believe. Despite the offense dip in the last 2 Braves games, this team can RAKE. Do not rule them out.
with 100 or more at bats this season, the catcher leading baseball in batting average... Torrens
Mack, true on Torrens. So, for the negative viewers here, realize we have UPGRADED with Winker over Stewart; that Jeff McNeil looks to really be back, hitting the ball hard a lot; Vientos arrived mid-May and has been terrific; and the Mets had Nido/Narvaez, but now have Alvarez/Torrens, a very massive upgrade. If Scott, Nunez, and Garrett return OK, this team is as good as any.
Today's goals:
(1) Obtain one starting pitcher that can consistently pitch 6 (or more) innings. Then move Megill to the pen as Ray (and others) have suggested.
(2) Obtain a speed-type 5th outfielder that can replace Ben Gamel. That 6 run inning last night was frustrating. This team needs more team speed.
Next two month goals:
Win 6 out of every 10 games they play.
I don't get this bashing of JD Martinez. For the season his OPS+ is 124, which is 24 percent above the average player in baseball. Baty's OPS+ for the season is 83, which is 17 percent below average in baseball. JD is also 6 for his last 20, with one homer and 6 rbi's in the last 5 games.
I definitely don't trade JD Martinez. Without him, a hole in the line up. And I think his help to Torrens, Iglesias, and Vientos, and perhaps Alvarez, is real, and sending him packing will send away the support for those 4. Maybe Taylor, too, who has woken up. And Taylor sure can catch balls headed over the wall with the best of them
Since the All Star break we have had 3 innings that we scored a bunch of runs. The rest has been blah.
I don't think the Mets have enough to go deep into the playoffs and that's if they even make it there. To fix this team, the Mets need another top pitcher or possibly two.
The question then becomes: Do you want to mortgage the minor leagues for years to come for a possible WC?
If the Mets are smart, they would trade assets and come back stronger in 2025 while upgrading the minor leagues with even more top prospects.
But these are the Mets, dreamers not realist. Incapable of formatting a plan and following it to fruition. To me, this is not the year to trade top prospects. You do that when you are one key player or two away and you're fighting for the division lead, not a second or third WC.
Viper, a few weeks ago I wrote the same thing, remember? But, I also know that opportunities should not be taken for granted, and winning is always better in the long run. What do you think they’ll get for Alonso and some of these pitchers? The best thing is to get a good deal and not sacrifice anything. Then, let your free agents leave, get under the cap, and start building and drafting without the penalties but with deep pockets as well.
Remember, we are playing the Twins who have no history of beating NY teams.
I still think 87 wins.
Need at least 88 wins.
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